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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score statistics to advanced metrics available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0, as well as models such as Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).

There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.

Week 8 Recap

• WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens: WR23, 14.1 PPR Points 
• WR Courtland Sutton Denver Broncos: WR35, 10.7 PPR Points
• WR Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers: WR45, 8.5 PPR Points
• WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons: WR72, 2.1 PPR Points

Potential Breakouts: Week 9

PWOPR is significantly more stable than fantasy points per game (FPpG) and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG.

Players with a strong projected weighted opportunity rating (PWOPR) and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:

• They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
• Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG

WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: at Carolina Panthers

Carolina has allowed the eighth-most EPA per pass play to wide receivers over the past four weeks and earned a 42.3 PFF coverage grade on those snaps, which ranks 19th. Jordan Love ranks fifth in EPA against zone coverage and fourth in PFF grade from a clean pocket.

The Panthers play zone at the third-highest rate in the league but rank 31st in pressure rate. When Green Bay has faced zone coverage this season, Josh Jacobs leads the team with a 22% target rate, followed by Romeo Doubs at 20%. Assuming this game remains competitive, all indicators suggest a favorable matchup for Doubs in Week 9.

Cincinnati has allowed the third-most EPA per play to wide receivers over the past month and the highest rate of open targets (62.2%). The Bengals have permitted the 10th-lowest average depth of target yet the fifth-highest yards per reception — an indication that when receivers do get opportunities, they’re turning them into explosive plays. Despite that, Cincinnati has allowed the second-fewest total targets to the position.

Caleb Williams enters this matchup ranked 30th in PFF grade on the season and 34th over the past month. Efficiency will be key for Rome Odunze, who has the opportunity to capitalize if Chicago chooses to feature him — and if Williams can deliver with accuracy.

Houston has limited opposing receivers to the third-fewest EPA per play over the past month (0.17) and the seventh-lowest open-target rate (42.2%), while still giving up the 11th-highest yards per reception (13.2).

During that span, the Texans’ front has been outstanding — ranking second in team pass-rush grade and top 13 in quick-pressure rate — all while maintaining the lowest blitz rate in the league.

That presents a problem for Bo Nix, who ranks 27th in PFF grade when pressured. Houston plays zone coverage at a high rate — eighth over the last month and second for the season — a scheme that doesn’t favor Courtland Sutton. He leads Denver in total targets versus zone coverage (39), but his target rate drops sharply from 28% against man to just 16.7% against zone.

This profiles as a difficult matchup for Sutton, given Houston’s ability to generate pressure and neutralize his strengths.

• Per PFF Key Insights: Against Derek Stingley Jr. in their career reps, Sutton has been targeted 12 times on 31 routes for a 38.71% target rate.

The model often highlights quality receivers being held back by either their offensive system, quarterback play, or simple underutilization. The Raiders have struggled this season, but Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers remain legitimate receiving threats due for positive regression.

The Jaguars rank 17th in EPA allowed per play to wide receivers but boast the sixth-worst PFF grade when receivers are targeted. Their pass rush has also faltered, posting the fifth-worst quick-pressure rate and eighth-worst team pass-rush grade over the past month despite blitzing at a top-10 rate.

That sets up favorably for Geno Smith, whose 35.1 PFF passing grade under pressure more than doubles to 71.6 when kept clean. Jacksonville also owns the third-worst PFF coverage grade against tight ends over the last month, and Bowers’ return should help stress the defense and open outside windows for Tucker.

WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions: vs. Minnesota Vikings

Over the past month, Minnesota has allowed the most EPA per play to opposing wide receivers and surrendered 17.0 yards per reception to the position. Remove the Eagles game, however, and those numbers normalize to 14th-best in EPA per play and 13th-best in yards per reception. For the season, the Vikings have allowed the fewest total targets to wide receivers.

Minnesota ranks first in two-high safety usage, while the Lions target wideouts at a 50% rate against those coverages. Jameson Williams has posted a modest 9.8% target rate versus two-high looks this season, but offensive coordinator John Morton even admitted he has “failed” Williams to this point. That could lead to some designed opportunities for the speedy receiver moving forward.

Kansas City has allowed the fewest EPA per play on wide receiver targets over the past month, pairing that with the lowest average depth of target (7.9 yards) and a league-best 9.7 yards per reception. Those metrics support a top-five PFF coverage grade against wideouts.

The Chiefs’ pressure profile is unusual — they rank ninth-worst in quick-pressure rate but eighth-best in overall pressure rate. With a 2.67-second time to pressure (fifth-highest in the league), their defensive success underscores just how effective Kansas City’s coverage has been.

Josh Allen enters as the seventh-highest-graded quarterback against two-high safety looks, while the Chiefs deploy two-high at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Keon Coleman’s target rate drops from a team-high 27% against single-high coverage to 18.4% against two-high, fourth among Buffalo receivers.

This is a difficult matchup for Coleman to post a breakout performance, though he could still find the end zone if the game turns into a shootout.