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Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins [Total: 50.5]

Game Overview

The marquee storyline of this matchup is the health and status of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The two-time MVP was expected back this past week against the Bears, with that spread settling around 6.5 points. Controversy ensued when Jackson was ultimately ruled out, raising questions about the validity of the Ravens’ injury reporting process. Markets quickly adjusted the line to -1.5, a mark Baltimore cleared handily. 

Jackson is again expected to make his return this week — a welcome boost for a team that has struggled to generate offense in his absence. With Jackson in the lineup, Baltimore’s offense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play (0.068, 10th), successful play rate (37.2%, eighth) and touchdown drive rate (35.9%, second). Without him, the unit places in the bottom five in each metric.

However, the question remains if Baltimore can cover as a heavy favorite on the road. While the Ravens have covered once at home this season as 12.5-point favorites, they hold an overall 2-3 record against the spread as a favorite, including two outright losses on the road. 

On the other sideline, the Dolphins are coming off an emphatic road win as seven-point underdogs in Atlanta. With that win, Miami moves to a 2-0 record against the spread as touchdown underdogs. The Dolphins now head back to Miami for a four-game homestand, where they hold a 2-1 against-the-spread record. 

While Miami’s offense has shown flashes this season, the team’s defensive inefficiency has created significant deficits. Before Week 8, the Dolphins ranked 32nd in EPA per play allowed. Against the Falcons, they showed massive improvements, allowing the fifth-best EPA per play mark in the NFL last week. Their success this week will hinge on tapping into that level of play again.

Given the offensive potential of both teams, matched with some porous defensive play — both units rank at the bottom of the NFL in scoring drive rate allowed — there will likely be movement around the game total leading up to kickoff. As things stand, the percentage of bets on each side hovers around an even split, while the total percentage of the handle leans heavily toward the over.

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QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Over 1.5 passing TDs (+123)

Despite waves of criticism and open speculation about Mike McDaniel’s and Tua Tagovailoa’s futures, the Dolphins’ offense was clicking this past week. Tagovailoa tossed a season-best four touchdown passes, his fifth multi-touchdown game of the year. 

While Baltimore has made some improvements in coverage in recent outings, this unit has struggled mightily overall. The Ravens’ defense ranks 27th in passing touchdowns allowed, with nine scores coming in just their past four games. That could spell trouble, as Tagovailoa has thrown for eight touchdowns in his two career matchups against the Ravens.

Stylistically, this matchup frames as favorable for Tagovailoa’s passing overs. The Ravens run man coverage at the third-highest rate (39.9%) in the NFL, a coverage look against which Tagovailoa traditionally excels. His man-zone PFF passing grade splits emphasize that, with his 90.1 mark against man ranking third best in the NFL this season, highlighted by a seven-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Dolphins’ quarterback also operates much more effectively from a clean pocket. His 74.0 PFF passing grade when left clean is nearly 30 points higher on the grading scale than his PFF passing grade when under pressure. The Ravens’ defense has struggled to rush the passer this season, ranking 29th in pressure rate (28.5%).