Colts’ Week 8 QB Analysis: Jones continues to impress

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

HOW WELL?

I think I could just copy and paste my comments from previous weeks, because Jones keeps delivering the same consistently strong performances. In Week 8, he was once again a top-10 QB in EPA efficiency and success rate, minimizing mistakes and mixing in high-impact plays to keep the NFL’s best offense rolling.

He did take three sacks this week, which was out of the ordinary, but when your biggest complaint is that the worst play of the day was a 3rd & 10 sack, there’s not much to complain about.

His success rate dipped a bit this week, but it was a down week across the league, so he still managed to land at #7. His yardage efficiency and play conversion rate, however, were sky-high — leading to plenty of points.

HOW FAR?

One of Jones’ strengths this year is the ability to string together completions. At one point, he completed 10 passes in a row and that really helps move the chains. I guess technically there aren’t chains anymore, but “moving the cameras” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. Regardless, 70+ % completion rates are a good thing.

He’s kept both his attempt volume and completion depth above average pretty much all season. That’s a big change from his days in New York, where he was often forced to constantly dump off short passes. Even in his previously best season back in 2022, he had the 4th-shortest average attempt depth — but in Indy, he’s up to the 7th-longest. Of course, that’s irrelevant unless you can actually complete those passes — and he is.

TO WHO?

Both Pittman and Pierce had big days, nearly matching each other in total receiving depth, but Pittman added a lot more YAC. Warren continues to impress as Jones spreads the ball around nicely.

Warren still leads in total yards, but Pittman is the completions and target leader.

The only low-value throws were the shorter ones, which is completely normal.

Each week I’m stunned by this graph showing all the main receivers delivering above-average value. Colts fans haven’t seen anything like this in a long time. A long, long time. Like… looooooong.

HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy (CPOE) jumped significantly this week, driven by Jones connecting on the deeper throws. Ironically, for the season, he’s actually below average on passes behind the line of scrimmage — but he more than makes up for it on throws up to 30 yards downfield.

HOW FAST?

Time to throw stayed a little high, but with the longer attempts, that makes sense. His three sacks were the most he’s taken all season, and I’m sure holding the ball a bit too long was a factor. But it’s a trade-off — and it clearly worked. On the year, when you account for passing depth, his time to throw is actually quicker than average.

Bottom line — nothing to see here.

TO WHERE?

He spread the ball evenly across the field, without favoring either side. He was a little shy on throws over 20 yards, but when he took those shots, he delivered.

I just need him to take a deep shot down the middle next week so he can erase the only red zone left on his season heat map.

DASHBOARD

Here’s the quick and dirty on the game:

• The Colts had a strong day on the ground but still leaned on the pass (2nd ARSR, 2nd EDP).
• Jones wasn’t pressured for most of the afternoon, which allowed him to hold the ball a bit longer than average and push the ball deeper downfield (22nd PR%, 13th TTT, 10th aDOT).
• Not only did Jones complete a high percentage of his throws, but he also generated more depth on those completions than most quarterbacks — leading to a top-five yards-per-attempt mark (8th AC%, 9th AY/C, 5th AYPA).
• Unlike previous weeks, he abandoned more attempts — with a higher number of throwaways, a few sacks, and minimal scrambles (9th AA%, 6th TA%, 10th SCK%, 19th SCR%). That’s not a good thing, and it significantly reduced his yardage efficiency (9th NY/D). Although by simply not having any designed runs, he jumps 2 spots in net yards per play (7th NY/P).
• He racked up plenty of first downs to keep drives moving downfield, which yielded three passing touchdowns — all while posting yet another turnover-free game (8th 1st%, 5th TD%, 26th TO%).

That all put him 7th in EPA efficiency and success rate. Sure, it came against a 24th-ranked Tennessee pass defense, but he was strong against the good defesnes too (Rams, Broncos).

Up to this point, I’m not seeing any real weaknesses — other than strength of schedule. But even after adjusting for opponent, I still have him graded as the 2nd-best passer on the season.

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