NFL Week 9 Betting: Best early bets before lines move
By
Mason Cameron
and
Judah Fortgang
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Week 8 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 9. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (-4.5) [Total: 45.5]
Best Bet: Patriots -4.5
The Patriots have hit their stride — and they don’t appear to be slowing anytime soon. Their Week 8 victory over the Browns marked their fifth consecutive victory and cover. That performance moves them into a tie for the best cover rate in the NFL (75.0%), including a 4-1 record against the spread as the favorite.
Quarterback Drake Maye has been laying the foundation for an MVP case, owning the highest PFF passing grade (90.4) since Week 4. Over that span, the Patriots have generated the highest EPA per dropback (0.378) and explosive pass rate (21.4%) in the NFL. That will pose a challenge for a Falcons defense that just allowed the Dolphins to score on 60% of their drives, after Miami came into the week ranked 22nd in scoring drive percentage.
Without Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, the Falcons‘ offense generated just 4.3 yards per play on average against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered massive yardage this season. Even if Penix and London return this week, Atlanta’s issues on the road may persist. Away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons have generated -0.155 EPA per play and just 17.1 points per game (28th), with a negative 8.0-point average score margin.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 49.5]
Best Bet: Colts -3.5
The Colts’ run of dominance continues. The team put up another 40 points on the Tennessee Titans in Week 8 and is on pace for historic offensive numbers. The Colts’ EPA number on a drive level tops any team over the past 10 years to this point in the season.
Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense continues to get eviscerated, ranking last in the NFL in perfect coverage rate. That showed this past week, as Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love lit them up for 362 passing yards.
Pittsburgh’s offense has a decent floor due to how quickly the group gets rid of the ball, leading the NFL in passes thrown before 2.5 seconds. But that has limited the unit’s downfield elements, and the Steelers have struggled to generate much from their passing attack over the past few weeks. The Colts and their offense can win easily by a significant margin, and we like them on the spread here as a result.
