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Green Bay Packers (-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 45.5]

Game Overview

It’s been nearly three years since Aaron Rodgers last suited up as the Packers’ quarterback. On Sunday night, he’ll face his former team for the first time since leaving Green Bay. While Rodgers insists this isn’t a “revenge game,” there’s no denying the emotion surrounding his first matchup against the franchise he led for 17 seasons.

Rodgers’ Steelers have started strong this season and currently sit atop the AFC North at 4-2. Their betting results, however, have been more mixed — Pittsburgh is 3-3 against the spread and has covered just once at home. Still, the Steelers enter this week as home underdogs, a role that’s historically treated them well. Since Mike Tomlin’s arrival in 2007, Pittsburgh is 21-7-3 against the spread as a home underdog — a 75% cover rate that ranks best in the NFL over that span.

Having last played on Thursday night, Pittsburgh has had extra time to prepare and adjust for this matchup. That preparation will be critical for a defense that just allowed a previously struggling Bengals offense to post top-six marks in several key efficiency metrics, including EPA per play (0.214, sixth), success rate (42.1%, third) and yards per play (6.5, fourth).

While the Packers sit atop the NFC North and boast talent across the roster, their performance against the spread has lagged behind their record. Favored in every game this season, Green Bay has covered just 33.3% of the time and enters this week on a four-game ATS skid.

This matchup in Pittsburgh marks the Packers’ fourth road game in five weeks — a stretch that hasn’t gone their way, as they’re 0-3 ATS as road favorites this season.

Speaking with PFF’s Judah Fortgang and Ben Linsey on the PFF NFL Betting Show, both analysts highlighted several factors favoring the Packers to cover as favorites — along with value on the over for the 45.5-point total. Schematically, the edge in this matchup belongs to Green Bay’s offense. As Linsey noted, Jordan Love has excelled against man coverage (seventh in passing grade vs. man coverages) and against the blitz (second in PFF passing grade vs. blitzes). Those are the core elements of the Steelers’ defensive identity.

RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 58.5 rushing yards (-114)

One angle highlighted by Ben Linsey in our Bets of the Week article is one I agree with. Although Jaylen Warren is coming off his best performance of the season in Week 7, he has failed to clear this line in any other game this year. That breakout showing also came against a porous Bengals run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in team run-defense grade (53.6, 30th), EPA allowed per rush (0.054, 30th) and yards allowed per carry (4.7, 28th).

This Packers defense has been far more impressive against the run this season. Green Bay ranks inside the top eight in both team run-defense grade (74.2, seventh) and yards per carry allowed (3.5, fifth). The unit has surrendered more than 58 rushing yards to only two opposing running backs all year.