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This article breaks down the factors that drive line movement in betting markets and helps you judge whether a shift is an overreaction or a justified adjustment. Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few of the forces that can swing numbers.

Early in the season, markets are especially volatile as oddsmakers and bettors alike search for a true read on each team. Big swings are common, and while knowing that lines move is useful, the real edge comes from understanding why they move. This information can shape your stance and identify the right entry points.

College football markets, in particular, are getting bet into perceived efficiency earlier than ever. What was once a slow game of chicken, waiting for the best number at a decent limit, has become a sprint, with bettors and touts racing to the window before limits peak later in the week.

We’ll examine notable market-maker opening lines and how they’ve moved since Sunday.

USF vs. Memphis: USF -3 → -5

After opening as a 3-point favorite, the Bulls moved as high as a 6-point favorite on Monday evening. Throughout the week, that number dipped to 4 before settling at 5, though some sportsbooks still list 4.5. Much of the movement in both directions has centered on Memphis’ quarterback situation — whether injured starter Brendon Lewis will be able to play or if the Tigers will turn to four-star freshman AJ Hill. The outcome of this game could have a significant impact on which Group of Five team reaches the College Football Playoff.

Washington vs. Illinois: Total 57.5 → 54

After opening at 57.5, the total dropped to 54 on Tuesday afternoon. When it hit that number, the market showed some disagreement, briefly pushing the total back up to 55 for about 24 hours before it returned to 54. A few sportsbooks still list 54.5.

Play: Under 54.5 (110 at Caesars)

The weather conditions are likely to limit downfield passing, an area where both teams have shown vulnerability. With poor weather expected and this essentially serving as a playoff elimination game, the under appears to hold value and could continue to draw action leading up to kickoff.

Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Mizzou +3 → +2.5

There’s been only a half-point move in this game, but it’s the most significant half-point in football betting. The line has bounced between 2.5 and 3 throughout the week and has yet to move beyond those numbers. Most sportsbooks list 2.5 with added juice, though a few 3s remain available.

Play: Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Taking the small home underdog comes down to the slight edge at quarterback. As discussed on this week’s PFF College Football Show, Vanderbilt held its own in the trenches last week against LSU. Missouri’s defensive strength lies up front, but even if Vanderbilt’s offensive line doesn’t replicate that success, Diego Pavia has the ability to neutralize the Tigers’ pressure. He holds a 91.0 PFF grade against the blitz, which ranks fifth in the nation.

Texas A&M vs. LSU: Texas A&M -1 → -2.5

The Aggies moved to a 3-point favorite within 48 hours of opening as a slight favorite. That number dropped back to 2.5 on Wednesday morning. A few sportsbooks still list 3, though with additional vig required. It’s a major test for a Texas A&M team looking to remain unbeaten.

Houston vs. Arizona State: Total 49.5 → 44.5

There’s been a significant drop in the total, falling from the opening number of 49.5 down to 44.5. This marks one of the lowest totals either team has seen this season. There was some resistance midweek, with buyback at 46.5 and 45.5, but momentum on the under ultimately prevailed. Plenty of 45.5s remain available, though several market-making sportsbooks are already down to 44.5 — numbers that are likely to be taken quickly.