Colts’ Week 7 QB Analysis: The Efficient Engine

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

HOW WELL?

This week, Daniel Jones continued his trend of producing a high volume of positive plays while limiting the impact of negative ones. In Week 7, he ranks 9th in both success rate and EPA efficiency. He’s consistent, minimizes mistakes, and brings explosive capability. In short, he’s doing exactly what you want from a quarterback.

With no interceptions, he posted a bounce-back in EPA per play, even as his success rate dipped slightly. His yards per play remained high, leading to an elevated play conversion rate.

HOW FAR?

He struggled with completions early, going just 5-for-9 to start, but that’s the beauty of having a strong run game—when the passing attack sputtered early, the offense still found ways to score. Jones eventually settled in, finishing just shy of 70% on the day, and missing on only two of his final ten attempts helped seal the win.

Passing depth was up this week, as he recorded the 6th-longest average attempt distance and raised his completion depth back to around league average.

TO WHO?

Pierce stole the show with 10 targets, finishing just shy of 100 yards. Warren was a YAC machine throughout the game.

On the season, Pittman retakes the lead in targets, but Warren still owns the yardage crown.

You don’t want to be in the lower-right quadrant of this graph—and none of the Colts’ receivers are.

The trio with the most targets—Warren, Downs, and Pittman—sit well above the league-average value line.

HOW ACCURATE?

Completion percentage dipped slightly this week, but with the deeper throws, it actually translated to a higher accuracy rate (CPOE). Jones is absolutely killing it on passes between 0 and 20 yards.

HOW FAST?

Time to throw was again slightly above the league average this week—but with deeper attempts, that’s to be expected.

TO WHERE?

He primarily targeted the left side of the field but found the most success throwing to the right. Those results might not be entirely independent.

For the season… hold up—what’s that red patch doing there?

DASHBOARD

• The Colts remained a pass-first team, even though the run game was extremely productive (1st ARSR, 9th EDP).
• Jones faced roughly average pressure and took about an average amount of time to throw, despite maintaining solid downfield depth on his attempts (18th PR%, 15th TTT, 6th ADOT).
• His depth of completions was around league average, but the receivers provided excellent YAC, and when combined with a high completion rate, it pushed his yards-per-attempt efficiency into the top 5 (17th AY/C, 6th YAC, 9th AC%, 4th AYPA).
• Add to that the fact that he had very few scrambles, throwaways, or sacks, and you get dropback yardage that ranked 3rd highest on the week (21st Scr%, 19th TA%, 28th Sck%, 3rd NY/D).
• He consistently moved the chains, which led to a pair of touchdown passes—and, importantly, no turnovers (8th 1st%, 11th TD%, 26th TO%).

All of that translates to another top-10 performance overall (9th QBSR, 9th EPA/P).

His efficiency curve is strong, showing a steady upward trend as different play outcomes—drops, incompletions, sacks, and so on—are factored in.

Although it’s not shown here, I have him ranked 9th in deep passing and #1 under pressure. The only real weakness is in the red zone, where his efficiency dips to 18th. But hey—that’s what a strong run game is for.

On the year, Jones holds the highest EPA efficiency of any quarterback, and even after adjusting for opponent strength, that only drops to 3rd overall.

For a guy I bad-mouthed so much before the season, he’s making me look like an idiot.

See More: