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Week 7 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 8. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos (-3) [Total: 48.5]

Best Bet: Over 48.5

The Cowboys are seemingly aware that winning requires pouring it on offensively and racing teams to 35. Dallas holds top-five marks in nearly all key offensive metrics, including EPA per play (0.149, second) and scoring drive rate (52.0%, third). And that may just be the tip of the iceberg after the team welcomed back star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb from a nearly four-game absence. 

With a full complement of weapons in Week 7, the Cowboys’ offense put up 34 points on the Washington Commanders through three quarters before taking their foot off the gas. The Commanders‘ defense isn’t near the caliber of the group that Dallas will face in Denver, but quarterback Dak Prescott may be more well-equipped to handle the heat than most. Prescott’s NFL-best 84.4 PFF passing grade under pressure will take center stage against Denver’s league-leading 45.7% pressure rate. 

On the other sideline, Bo Nix and the Broncos have struggled with offensive consistency but have shown flashes of excellence. This past week, they entered the fourth quarter without a zero on the board against the Giants before putting up 33 points in the final frame to capture the win. Given Dallas’ struggles defensively — contributing to five overs this season — the Broncos may be able to find a rhythm offensively. 

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Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 44.5]

Best Bet: Packers -2.5

The Steelers are coming off a mini bye and a very disappointing performance against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football, while the Packers similarly just eked out a win against the Arizona Cardinals.

But, of course, we never want to over-index on one game. Over the full course of the season, the Packers have been in an entirely different tier of team than the Steelers. Choose your efficiency metric, but this is a Packers offense that is far superior — whether its EPA, success rate, EDP yards per per play, etc.

And on defense, the gap only widens. The Steelers have fielded a bottom-tier defense in nearly every metric, whereas the Packers are allowing the fewest yards per play of any team. But because Green Bay has generated only three turnovers, the team’s EPA numbers don’t look as good relative to the Steelers’ (10 turnovers, fourth most).

These teams are simply not in the same tier, and we anticipate that this game will move more in the Packers‘ direction.