Drake Maye is the only quarterback in the NFL this season who is top-10 in passer rating and was drafted by his current team in the top-20 picks. I’ll say that again for the people who obsess over drafting quarterbacks early every year:
Out of the top-10 quarterbacks in passer rating, Maye is the only one drafted by his current team in the top-20.
Conversely, of the 9 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 5 interceptions this season, 5 of them were drafted by their current team in the top-6.
In 2025, being an early draft pick by your current team increases the odds that you’re having a bad season than it does that you’re having a good season. So as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff battle out MVP debates (both number one picks, neither of them drafted by their current team), remember these numbers the next time a fanbase pins the hopes of the franchise on an imaginary rookie quarterback picked early in the draft.
In some ways, that’s just a fairy tale that ESPN has been telling you since Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf. The early-pick quarterbacks can be great too, but these days teams are getting more out of castoffs, retreads, and reclamations than phenoms, fantasy dynasty stars, and freak athletes.
Top-10 QBs in passer rating:
- Jared Goff, Lions, 120.6 (traded for Stafford)
- Drake Maye, Patriots, 116.4 (2nd overall pick)
- Sam Darnold, Seahawks, 116 (free agent signing)
- Matthew Stafford, Rams, 109.3 (traded for Goff and 2 first round picks)
- Jalen Hurts, Eagles, 108.9 (2nd round pick)
- Baker Mayfield, Bucs, 108.5 (free agent signing)
- Jordan Love, Packers, 108.1 (26th overall pick, sat for 3 years)
- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, 107.6 (4th round pick)
- Daniel Jones, Colts, 105.9 (free agent signing)
- Aaron Rodgers, Steelers, 105 (free agent signing)
Just this past free agency we saw Darnold, Jones, and Rodgers all sign relatively cheap free agent deals. Darnold’s was the most expensive at $33.5 million per season and even that barely ranks inside the top-20. The only veteran making less than him on a deal longer than 2 years is Mayfield at $33.3 million. As two other QBs in the MVP conversation at midseason, Darnold and Mayfield make the “top-5 pick” obsession look absurd for 2 reasons:
1. Darnold and Mayfield were free agents
2. Darnold and Mayfield were considered busts on the Jets and Browns (and then together on the Panthers)
They represent both the downside to top-3 picks and the upside to free agents. The same goes for former 6th overall pick Daniel Jones, who leads the NFL in success rate and QBR in his first season with the Colts. A team that has improved from 17th in points per game with Anthony Richardson last year (but even less when he was starting over Joe Flacco) to 1st in scoring in 2025.
Does the Jones thing or the Darnold thing have a shelf life? It might! But who doesn’t? Remember when Trevor Lawrence was good? Remember when Tua Tagovailoa was good? Remember when Justin Herbert looked like he was going to be a lot better than he’s been lately?
Teams would have sold their souls for Lawrence. They’ve sold them for a lot less. Now he looks like he could be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL who has more than a few years of experience. His performance against the Rams on Sunday was pitiful, but what’s worse is that games like that have become the norm for Lawrence.
Would any team rather pay Lawrence $55 million per season than take a shot at Daniel Jones, who is making $14 million?
Obviously most free agents like Daniel Jones will not be as good as he’s been this year. QBs turnarounds like Darnold and Mayfield are anything but dime-a-dozen: Just check in on the careers of Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, or Fields, who doesn’t deserve to start another game in his career but for some reason Aaron Glenn refuses to see that.
But the worst case scenario for a free agent is actually BETTER than the worst case scenarios for paying quarterbacks like Lawrence and Tagovailoa the $50-$55 million per year salaries that they want, knowing that there’s almost no way to live up to it without being as good as Darnold, Mayfield or Stafford, who by the way still only makes $40 million per year.
Help! I was drafted to be a franchise savior!
Here are some of the QBs drafted to save their franchises:
- Cam Ward, Titans, 1st overall (32nd in passer rating, 33rd in QBR)
- Lawrence, Jaguars, 1st overall (28th in rating, 23rd in QBR)
- Tua, Dolphins, 5th overall (26th in rating, 21st in QBR)
- Bryce Young, Panthers, 1st overall (25th in rating, 25th in QBR)
- Michael Penix, Falcons, 8th overall (24th in rating, 18th in QBR)
- Bo Nix, Broncos, 12th overall (23rd in rating, 20th in QBR)
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals, 1st overall (21st in rating, 24th in QBR)
- Caleb Williams, Bears, 1st overall (16th in rating, 14th in QBR)
And believe it or not, Jayden Daniels is just 19th in QBR. Last year’s rookie sensation, Daniels is only completing 61% of his passes and although he’s a very exciting QB with a bright future, Commanders fans would want to see that consistency and that improvement year over year in 2025. Instead, Daniels has a 2-3 record as the starter and simultaneously they have to watch Maye get better every week.
It honestly isn’t that much better for Caleb Williams, who has won his last four starts but still struggles to complete 60% of his passes even with Ben Johnson and a very talented supporting cast.
But that is still preferable to Chicago’s NFC North foes, as the Vikings contemplate starting free agent has-been Carson Wentz or 10th overall pick-but-terrible (when he’s played) J.J. McCarthy. Instead of draft McCarthy, the Vikings should have trusted the coaching staff to make the most out of Darnold after signing him as a $10 million free agent who had spent the previous year on the 49ers bench.
Just like a team will probably do with Mac Jones when he’s able to leave the 49ers—if San Francisco even lets him go!
How does this impact Rams future?
The Rams have two first round picks in 2026 and if the right quarterback is available to Les Snead, sure they should absolutely take him if that’s what their guts are telling them to do. Blaine does weekly updates on the QBs fans should know about.
However, other than Stafford probably not going anywhere any time soon (he’s signed through 2026 but if he wants to play beyond then the Rams will likely sign him up), the draft might not be the best route to go in. The possibility that the Falcons might even send a top-10 pick to the Rams is very enticing — like I said, ESPN has built the whole plane out of QB prospects — but there could be and probably will be better prospects at other positions.
The only thing to drive a team to definitely pick a QB top-10 or top-5 is one thing and one thing only: Fear.
Fear of the unknown. Fear of the has-been. Fear of the former busts. Fear of the reclamation projects.
Fear of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, or as we now call them, “the MVP race”. In a way, it would be fear of another Matthew Stafford. But the Rams can’t look for players out of fear, they have to seek answers out of confidence. If the Rams have confidence in the Rams, then there’s no need to force anything in the draft.
When thinking of how this QB prospect mania all started, everybody remembers Peyton Manning. But never forget that 50% of that hype was Ryan Leaf. That is what you should fear.
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