The Detroit Lions (4-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) will square off in a Week 7 “Monday Night Football” battle between two of the best teams in the NFC. If the Lions want to get back to their winning ways, they’ll need to follow the defensive keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Note: this is the first of two keys to victory articles this week.
Bucs’ base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 7 Preview: Breaking down Bucs’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Man up and squeeze the MVP
“They’re playing hot football, it’s a very good team” Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “Baker is – you guys know I’ve got a lot of respect for (Bucs QB) Baker Mayfield. The way he plays, his leadership, his ability to push the ball down the field, make plays with his legs. I just think he’s playing at a high level. So, he’s a guy that gives them a chance anytime they’re in a game.”
Mayfield has been sensational in 2025 and is currently the frontrunner in the MVP conversation.
Entering his third season with the Bucs, Mayfield is working with his third different offensive coordinator, after Liam Coen accepted the Jaguars head coaching position and passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard was promoted. Grizzard retained many of the concepts Coen (and Dave Canales, Panthers HC) installed, but has incorporated additional wrinkles that better suit Mayfield’s style of play. Not only does Mayfield have more control over the offense under Grizzard, but the new OC has also unlocked the vertical passing game, allowing Mayfield to thrive.
Here’s an excerpt from Next Gen stats on Mayfield’s success with the deep ball:
“Baker Mayfield has attempted a downfield pass (10+ air yards) on 37.4% of passing attempts this season, the 2nd-highest rate of any quarterback. On these downfield passes, Mayfield has completed 45.2%, a mark below league average (48.2%). However, he leads the league in downfield attempts (73), resulting in 33 completions for 845 yards (3rd-most), and 9 touchdowns (1st). His 7 deep touchdown passes (20+ air yards) are 4 more than any other quarterback this season.”
Mayfield currently has the sixth-best passer rating in the NFL (108.5), and sixth-best EPA per dropback (0.23 points per passing play), and is the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL in EPA per dropback against zone coverage (0.41). For reference, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is No. 2 behind Mayfield, and we saw him take advantage of the Lions’ zone coverage schemes in Week 6.
With the Bucs’ vertical passing game clicking, teams have used zone to try and take away explosive plays, but Mayfield has done a terrific job of manipulating safeties and taking advantage of vacated zones of coverage. His ability to identify pre- and post-snap advantages, combined with quick decision-making and the ability to keep plays alive with his feet, has forced defenses to shift towards a zone defense to account for his traits.
If there is an area where Mayfield is less effective, it’s against man coverage: 0.05 EPA per dropback (22nd). The Lions utilize man coverage at a very high rate (fifth most in the NFL), which could set up a way for Detroit to slow down the Bucs’ efficiency. Here’s more from Next Gen:
“This season, the Lions defense has used man coverage on 39.3% of dropbacks, the 5th-highest rate of any defense. When using man coverage, the Lions fare slightly above league average in yards per attempt (6.8) and have allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns (9). Baker Mayfield has completed 52.3% of passes against man coverage, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt (8th-fewest).”
When teams utilize man coverage, it slows down the unfolding of the play and puts extra pressure on the Bucs’ offensive line (who have had to replace two starters) to hold up. As a result, Mayfield has been forced to scramble on 21.2% of his dropbacks vs. man coverage. While Mayfield has produced 79 rushing yards and 35 passing yards on scrambles vs. man coverage this season (second most in the NFL), the Lions’ defensive line has done a nice job of playing contain against mobile quarterbacks this season, holding Mahomes to 32 rushing yards last week and Lamar Jackson to 35 rushing yards in Week 3.
Against elite QBs like Mahomes and Jackson, we’ve seen the Lions run a contain and squeeze concept upfront with man coverage behind them a few times this season. With the way Mayfield is playing and the ways in which he is finding success, they’ll likely take this approach again.
Key 2: Keep Hutchinson over RT
Aidan Hutchinson opened the 2025 season with just two pressures against the Packers, but since then, he’s been on fire, accounting for 34 pressures (per PFF, 30 per Next Gen), six sacks, and four forced fumbles over the previous five games. PFF currently grades Hutchinson as the best pass rusher in the NFL and he leads the league in pressures per their metric—second in pressures per NextGenStats—with a pass-rush win rate of 25.4% (fourth).
For the defensive concept laid out in “Key 1” to work, the Lions will need to find ways to create pressure on Mayfield, while also playing contain. Entering this game, they’ve been able to convert their pressures into sacks 22.6% of the time (second best in the NFL per Next Gen), giving them the sack rate of 8.5% (fourth). In order for the Lions to keep this production up, they’ll need to take advantage of the injuries along the Bucs’ offensive line.
The Bucs have been juggling their offensive line all season, while several players work through injuries. All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs missed the first three games of the season but has returned to block Mayfield’s blind side. While starting right guard, Cody Mauch, and right tackle, Luke Goedeke, are on injured reserve, resulting in additional shuffling of roles. At guard, the Bucs have leaned on Luke Haggard (currently injured), Elijah Klein, and practice squader Mike Jordan (recovering from injury). At right tackle, the Bucs have turned to Charlie Heck, who has allowed 23 pressures through four and a half games played, the second-highest amount amongst all NFL offensive linemen this season.
The Lions typically split Hutchinson’s snaps between the left (48.4%) and right (50.9%) sides of the formations, but there is a clear advantage to lining him up over right tackle in this matchup. The Lions don’t typically deviate too far from their week-to-week deployment of Hutchinson, but it’s worth considering keeping him lined up across from Heck in this game when you consider the fact that he is allowing a pressure rate of 13.6%, while Wirfs’ pressure rate is just 4.5%.
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