The Colts return to the site of their only loss in the 2025 season thus far, this time to take on the AFC tenant of SoFi Stadium: the LA Chargers. Like their stadium-mates Rams, the Chargers represent a tough test for the Colts to further prove their legitimacy atop the NFL’s upper echelon. The Chargers are 3rd in the AFC heading into Week 7 at 4-2 in a 5 way tie with the Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, and Broncos (in that order). The Colts stand atop the AFC at 5-1, and only the Steelers stand in between the Week 7 opponents on the AFC rankings.
Can the Colts defeat the surging Chargers to maintain their lead in the AFC? Or will former Colts QB Jim Harbaugh in holding the reins as the Chargers Head Coach get some breathing room in a tight AFC playoff race?
Chargers Stat Ranks VS Colts Stat Ranks
Offense
- Points Scored Per Game: 23.2 (16th) | 32.3 (1st)
- Yards Per Game: 359.5 (9th) | 376.8 (4th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (Tied 10th) | 6.3 (Tied 1st)
- 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 45.24% (5th) | 46.97% (2nd)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 35% (32nd) | 65.52% (10th)
- Giveaways Per Game: 1.3 (Tied 20th) | 0.7 (Tied 7th)
- Punts Per Game: 3.2 (Tied 9th) | 1.7 (1st)
- EPA/Play: -0.03 (Tied 16th) | +0.17 (1st)
The Chargers Offense has overcame a lot of obstacles but maintained being a strong unit. Injuries have hurt them up front and at running back. Left Tackle Rashawn Slater was out for the season before it even began and Joe Alt also missing several weeks with ankle injury. Linemen Trey Pipkins III and Jamaree Salyer have also been banged up recently. Promising rookie RB Omarion Hampton is on IR but will return later in the year, and starting back Najee Harris went down with a season ending Achilles tear.
And yet, the Chargers endure. Justin Herbert is still one of the better and more underrated QBs in the NFL, and the passing attack has relied heavily on targeting veteran Keenan Allen returning back to the team alongside 2024 star rookie Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston finally breaking out as a strong outside target. The rushing attack has shifted giving the workload to 2024 6th round pick Kimani Vidal after injuries to Harris and Hampton, and Vidal impressed in his first opportunity last week.
The Chargers have embodied next man up, and are moving the ball down the field very well and consistently. But miscues in the Red Zone have made them the worst team in the NFL at converting them into Touchdowns, and the Chargers have gone from having the 2nd fewest turnovers in a season ever in 2024 with 9 to having 8 already in 2025. Besides the injury bug, the Chargers have been their own worst enemy. With a talented QB under center and a strong coach building the team though, opponents shouldn’t underestimate this Chargers team.
Passing Offense
- Pass Rate: 62.1% (6th) | 52.1% (27th)
- Passing Yards Per Game: 238.8 (9th) | 245 (5th)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback: 6.1 (19th) | 7.8 (2nd)
- Play Action Rate: 27.5% (9th) | 35.6% (1st)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 40.2% (31st) | 34.7% (19th)
- Time To Throw: 2.69 (Tied 5th) | 2.73 (Tied 11th)
- Yards After Catch: 743 (7th) | 724 (10th)
- EPA/Pass: -0.06 (Tied 19th) | +0.23 (Tied 2nd)
The Chargers have had to drastically shift from being one of the most Run heavy Offenses in the NFL in 2024 (10th highest run rate at 45.5%), to now much more reliant on the Passing game. This is largely due to the aforementioned injuries at RB and along the line. They are still trying to establish the run enough to use play action effectively, but the line is allowing a lot of pressure despite Herbert’s quick release speed and he’s had to operate with rushers getting into the pocket a lot in 2025.
When kept clean, Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the NFL, ranking 6th in offensive grade and 7th in passing grade. When under pressure those rankings fall to 15th and 13th, while his Yards Per Attempt and Completion Percentage fall from 7.9 (Tied 14th best) and 79.6% (5th best) to 4.8 (10th worst) and 42% (5th worst).
Getting pressure will be crucial in this matchup, especially if the Chargers begin to get healthy at their line. Tackle Joe Alt, who has assumed Left Tackle duties with Slater out for the season, is Week to Week with his ankle injury, and both of the starting Guards were questionable last week but could be getting healthier.
The Colts will have their hands full trying to stop the Chargers passing attack, who can do damage with any of their top 3 Wide Receivers consistently. With top Corner Charvarius Ward suffering his second concussion of the season, his status is up in the air.
In his place is Mekhi Blackmon, who has shown some flashes of promise in stepping into a bigger role in 2025. Jaylon Jones still hasn’t been activated from IR to return from his hamstring injury, Kenny Moore II is recovering from his Achilles, and Mike Hilton was placed on IR last week and is out for at least the next 3 games with a shoulder injury. The next men up are Chris Lammons activated off of the Practice Squad and Undrafted Free Agent Jonathan Edwards who made his first NFL start last week vs the Cardinals.
Beware the shiftiness of Ladd McConkey, the veteran savvy and route running of Keenan Allen, and the physicality of Quentin Johnston.
Expect the Colts to deploy a variety of blitz packages some including dropping Defensive Ends in Coverage, to confuse the Chargers OL and generate quick pressure to try and disrupt Herbert’s timing, but try to get home with 4 to 5 rushers to make it easier on their corners by not having to cover as big of zones without help.
Herbert has thrown 56.9% of his passes at short (1-10 yard depth), 3rd most in the NFL in 2025. He does have a live arm with strong velocity and can air it out deep (and he prefers to do so to Quentin Johnston), but with the OL issues him and Harbaugh have shifted to quick release throws. This does play to his strength, as he is the 3rd highest graded short passer and has gained more yards on short passes than anyone the NFL (by a margin of 110 yards!) and has the 10th quickest release in this area. Shallow zone discipline in Cover 2/press man ability is the best way to counter this coverage wise, and expect Lou Anarumo to dial up quite a few different looks to keep Herbert on his toes.
Rushing Offense
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 120.7 (13th) | 131.8 (6th)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry: 5 (Tied 3rd) | 4.6 (Tied 10th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry: 1.82 (5th) | 1.31 (T15th)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry: 3.25 (Tied 12th) | 3.29 (11th)
- Stuffed Rate: 20.1% (27th) | 11% (2nd)
- Success Rate: 49.4% (3rd) | 47% (4th)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry: +1.1 (Tied 1st) | +0.7 (Tied 7th)
- EPA/Run: +0.02 (Tied 6th) | +0.11 (Tied 1st)
Kimani Vidal is the top runner for the Chargers right now, and he had a great performance in his first NFL start last week. 18 carries for 124 yards and a 6.9 Yards per Carry along with catching 3 of his 4 targets for 14 yards and a TD is quite a first impression. While it was against the Dolphins Defense, it was still a strong performance.
Vidal’s 3.41 Yards After Contact per Carry so far this season would rank 15th in the NFL among RBs, right behind Aston Jeanty and ahead of Travis Etienne Jr. The 5’8 and 218 lb. former Troy Trojan brings a low center of gravity and a lot of power in his frame. He has strong balance and agility with excellent initial acceleration, making him a slippery back to bring down.
The Chargers Offensive line does a good job in run blocking, opening up holes very reliably and getting to the second level. The Chargers started out as more of a gap run team early in the season, but still run have run Zone 38.8% of the time in 2025. They embraced more Zone rushing with Vidal as he has 59.1% of his carries on Zone runs. The Colts have struggled against zone runs by allowing 4.65 Yards Per Carry, 6th most in the NFL. The Chargers rushing effectiveness has been balanced on each side, as they have ran 280 yards on 57 carries going left and have gained 282 yards on 58 carries going right, both at a 4.9 per carry Average. They do most of their damage on the outside, getting 291 yards on 39 carries (7.5 YPC) outside of the Tackles vs 271 yards on 76 carries (3.6 YPC) at or inside the Tackles The Colts have struggled at times vs the run and do not stack boxes often, so it will be up to the front 6 or 7 to stop the run more often than not. The Colts will need to be very disciplined on the Edges, so Laiatu Latu, Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and the Colts linebackers will be crucial.
Defense
- Points Allowed Per Game: 20.8 (12th) | 19.3 (Tied 4th)
- Yards Per Game Allowed: 301.7 (7th) | 329.2 (19th)
- Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.2 (Tied 9th) | 5.3 (Tied 12th)
- Takeaways Per Game: 1.2 (Tied 12th) | 1.5 (Tied 6th)
- EPA/Play Allowed: -0.005 (Tied 12th) | -0.07 (8th)
The Chargers Defense was one of the best units in the NFL in 2024 and is still maintaining a borderline top 10 performance so far this season. They have a lot of underrated playmakers stepping up, from Nose Tackle Teair Tart breaking out, Tuli Tuipulotu emerging as a strong pass rusher on the outside, and Derwin James Jr paired with Elijah Molden and Tony Jefferson at Safety. They also have gotten good value at Corner with Benjamin St-Juste and Tarheeb Still outperforming their draft slots and proving physical and reliable coverage.
The Chargers are struggling with injuries on defense as well, with Khalil Mack (but could return for Week 7), Linebackers Denzel Perryman and Junior Colson, Defensive Linemen Da’Shawn Hand and Josh Fuga, and Cornerbacks Deane Leonard, Eric Rogers, and Jordan Oladokun all on IR.
Passing Defense
- Passing Yards Per Game Allowed: 177.5 (6th) | 232.8 (22nd)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback Allowed: 5.2 (Tied 4th) | 5.9 (Tied 11th)
- Pressure Rate: 32% (20th) | 35% (13th)
- Blitz Rate: 20.4% (27th) | 27.8% (20th)
- Time To Throw Allowed: 2.74 (8th) | 2.8 (20th)
- Yards After Catch Allowed: 670 (20th) | 760 (26th)
- EPA/Pass Allowed: -0.11 (9th) | -0.08 (11th)
The Chargers Pass Defense relies up not many blitzes but instead trusting their line to get home. Despite missing key veteran Khalil Mack, the Chargers have done well in pass rushing with Teair Tart providing interior pressure and Tuli Tuipulotu alongside midseason trade addition Odafe Oweh both providing consistent edge pressure. Tuli provides the power rushing while Oweh bring the juice off the edge with his quickness. Both have an impressive bag of moves to deploy, making them each unique yet difficult matchups for most Tackles.
The Chargers secondary is filled with playmakers, but the number one assignment Daniel Jones has to check off pre-snap is finding where Derwin James is. James is one of the best safeties in the league and specializes in versatility, lining up anywhere on Defense. Figuring out where he is and what his assignment is will be key for the Colts.
The assignment the Colts can pick on the most in coverage is the Chargers Linebackers. Daiyan Henley and Troy Dye have taken nearly every snap at linebacker and both have struggled in coverage. To date they have combined allowed:
- 42 Targets
- 35 Catches
- 304 Yards
- 1 TD
- 1 INT
Tight Ends have been very successful in low volume against the Chargers, with Tight Ends recording 13 catches for 125 yards and 3 TDs so far this season. Slot Wide Receivers also get a boost, as opposing teams of the Chargers prefer to target Elijah Molden in the Nickel and the Linebackers in coverage. Expect Tyler Warren and Josh Downs if he plays after entering the concussion protocol to be heavily involved and have success.
Rushing Defense
- Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed: 124.2 (21st) | 96.3 (12th)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed: 5 (28th) | 4.3 (18th)
- Stacked Boxes Rate: 21.6% (17th) | 11.2% (32nd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry Allowed: 1.39 (22nd) | 1.47 (25th)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry Allowed: 3.65 (31st) | 2.86 (1oth)
- Stuffed Rate: 18.2% (8th) | 17.2% (Tied 12th)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry Allowed: +0.58 (23rd) | -0.20 (5th)
- EPA/Run Allowed: +0.04 (26th) | -0.05 (17th)
The Chargers Run Defense is the big weakness that holds the unit back. Allowing 5 Yards per Carry and the 2nd most Yards After Contact despite a high stuffed rate shows they have tackling issues, struggling to bring down ball carriers one on one. This isn’t just a one player issue, its team wide with Tuli Tuipulotu, Odafe Oweh, Tarheeb Still, Da’Shawn Hand, Derwin James, Corner Donte Jackson, Tony Jefferson, and Troy Dye all having Missed Tackle percentages over 15% and as high as 36.4%. For reference: former Colts LB EJ Speed was 2nd in total Missed Tackles in the NFL and missed 16.6% (13th highest% among LBs) in 2024.
Facing off against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts powerful unit of road graders seems like a clear mismatch in the Colts favor. The Chargers will try to be aggressive in going to rushing lanes, but if they aren’t disciplined in their angles and in their tackling form, Jonathan Taylor will punish them.
The one area that the Chargers Run Defense is stout is inside the tackles. Teair Tart has been a man on a mission, and the former Tennessee Titan likely has a lot of motivation to win against the Colts OL which he faced off against numerous times in his career already.
He ranks 6th in the NFL among all players and 1st among Defensive Tackles in Run Defense. As a result, the Chargers are 1st in Run Stuff%, 3rd best in Yards Per Carry allowed and 6th best in EPA/rush allowed against carries in between the Tackles. The Colts will find better success running outside the Tackles, where the Chargers rank 27th, 29th, and 31st in those same metrics respectively.
If the Colts can get Jonathan Taylor going in space outside, it will be a long afternoon.
Can the Colts Pass this Test?
Statistically this Week 7 matchup seems to be a good battle. Out of 38 Performance based Stats, the Colts have the advantage in 26, especially dominant in Total Offense by winning all 8 of those stats. Still, don’t underestimate the Chargers. While both teams are short-handed due to injuries, the Chargers still have a great coach and a top notch QB. This is arguably the best HC-QB duo the Colts have faced this season (certainly a debate between them and the other LA pair of McVay and Stafford), and the Chargers have a passing attack that should be respected paired with inspired run blocking and rushing from an injury ravaged Line and backfield.
The Colts should have the advantage in the trenches. The Colts healthy starting Offensive Line is performing well in pass protection and dominant in the run to counter the Chargers talented set of pass rushers and punish an underwhelming run defense front outside of Tart. Edges Laiatu Latu, Samson Ebukam, DeForest Buckner, and backup Defensive Tackles Adetomiwa Adebawore and Neville Gallimore all can exploit a bad Chargers line playing several backups, and if they do so consistently have a chance to disrupt Herbert. Still the Colts front will have to be wary of Vidal and the run game, as that is one area the Chargers haven’t missed a beat on.
NFL Network analysts are split on the game, with 5 favoring the Colts and 5 favoring the Chargers. None predict a dominant game from either team, with all the scores between 1-4 points. Chargers are the 1.5 point home favorites, so Vegas also sees it as a tight matchup.
Should the Colts establish the run with Taylor, target the middle of the field defenders with Warren and whoever lines up in the slot on any given play, pressure Herbert, and contain the talented group of playmakers on the Chargers Offense, they will emerge victorious. If a few of those factors don’t break the Colts way, then they could fall to 0-2 in their trips to LA. But if they pull out this road win, a 6-1 Colts will be in prime position to not only make the playoffs, but get a high seed in the AFC by getting another conference win against a good opponent and staying at the top of the AFC mountain for another week. The expectations will rise even more on the 2025 Colts, and with it a target on their backs from the rest of the NFL trying to knock them off the podium.
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