Another swing and a miss for me in the bold prediction factory. After thinking Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff would throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, Goff finished with two touchdowns and only 203 yards last week. That doesn’t mean I have to give up making bold predictions. I’ll get one right this season, and it starts this week.
After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, the Lions head back home to play in another primetime slot on “Monday Night Football.” This game is bound to be a good one, like it was the last time they played on Monday night, but this time, at Ford Field. The Lions host the top team in the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who come into Detroit at 5-1. The last time these two teams matched up, the Bucs got their revenge from their 2023 NFC Divisional round game, and defeated the Lions 20-16.
The Lions have a good chance to win this game, and if they’re going to do it, it must be behind what they do best, running the football.
Bold prediction of the week: The Lions rush for 150+ yards and score 2+ rushing touchdowns
If you ask anybody what the Lions offense is known for, it’s running the football. The team has adopted the identity of being a run-heavy team ever since Detroit hired Dan Campbell as its head coach. Last year was the best year running the ball under Campbell, with Detroit rushing for 2,488 yards and 29 touchdowns. This year while not quite as explosive, the Lions are still doing well with the ground attack, rushing for 772 yards and eight touchdowns through six games.
When the Lions struggle to run the football, their offense has to lean on the passing game. And while that isn’t a bad option for them, Detroit wants to force teams to slow down its rushing attack. This season, Tampa Bay has been up for the challenge and is among the upper level of run defenses in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Bucs rushing yards allowed
- Atlanta Falcons – 69 yards, 2.5 ypc, 1 touchdown
- Houston Texans – 84 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 touchdown
- New York Jets – 99 yards, 4.3 ypc
- Philadelphia Eagles – 88 yards, 2.8 ypc, 1 touchdown
- Seattle Seahawks – 122 yards, 6.1 ypc, 1 touchdown
- San Francisco 49ers – 67 yards, 3.0 ypc, 1 touchdown
- Average – 88.2 yards, 3.7 ypc
Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards this season (529) and five touchdowns. They have only had one game where they even allowed over 100 rushing yards; in their shootout against the Seahawks, and the longest rush allowed this season was for 31 yards. While they have slowed down opposing running backs, the Lions duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is the best duo the Bucs have seen this year.
Detroit Lions rushing yards
- Green Bay Packers – 46 yards, 2.1 ypc
- Chicago Bears – 177 yards, 5.9 ypc, 2 touchdowns
- Baltimore Ravens – 224 yards, 5.9 ypc, 4 touchdowns
- Cleveland Browns – 109 yards, 3.8 ypc, 1 touchdown
- Cincinnati Bengals – 118 yards, 3.6 ypc, 1 touchdown
- Kanas City Chiefs – 98 yards, 4.3 ypc
- Average – 128.7 yards, 4.4 ypc
Last season, the Lions only ran the ball 27 times compared to the 55 times they threw it, but those 27 carries turned into 139 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and they found the end zone once. Unfortunately, Detroit couldn’t win the game, but the run game succeeded. If you want to go back to the last time the Lions defeated Tampa Bay, in the 2023 NFC Divisional Round, Gibbs had this great cut to give Detroit the lead as he ran for 74 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.
With the Lions rushing over 150 yards twice this season, and finding the endzone multiple times twice as well (in back-to-back games, mind you), you can’t ignore what they do well. Only twice have they been held under 100 yards this year. The first was the season opener, where the Lions looked lost, and last week, when they had to abandon the run to try to come back against the Chiefs. Detroit will play the game how they want to, starting and ending with the running game.
Detroit has the fourth-highest run blocking grade according to PFF (74.9), and Tampa Bay’s run defense hasn’t graded out well despite having impressive stats, getting a 69.7 grade, ranked 15th. The Bucs could also be without their best run defender, linebacker Lavonte David, as he was absent from practice on Thursday, but with two practices to go, things could change. I believe the Lions are going to run all over Tampa Bay, pissed off from the loss against Kansas City and the drama that unfolded, and wanting to move on and get people talking about how explosive their offense is once again. They will give Tampa Bay a difficult time, and it’ll be the worst we’ve seen Tampa Bay’s run defense look this season.
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