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Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals [Total: 43]

Game Overview

Sitting atop the AFC North, the Steelers kick off the Week 7 slate with a promising opportunity to take a commanding division lead and establish themselves as a true contender in the conference. On the other sideline, the Bengals are looking to halt a four-game skid, as new signal-caller Joe Flacco gets more acquainted with the scheme and his teammates. 

After failing to cover their first two games as roughly three-point favorites, the Steelers have flipped the script with three straight covers. That span includes a clutch win as road favorites in New England and an outright win as the underdog against the Vikings in Dublin.

Pittsburgh’s inefficiencies on both sides of the ball to start the year have become a distant memory. Since Week 3, the Steelers have catapulted into the top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. 

They put on their most dominant display of the year this past week after returning from a bye. Aaron Rodgers looked like his vintage self, highlighted by a top-five PFF passing grade (82.5) on the week. Defensively, the pass rush erupted to produce the NFL’s highest team PFF pass-rush grade (89.1), and both Nick Herbig and T.J. Watt landed on PFF’s Team of the Week.

Cincinnati will have its hands full against the division rival, given the team’s recent struggles against Pittsburgh. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals have failed to cover in four straight matchups with the Steelers, including a pair of games without Joe Burrow. That adds to their overall inconsistency in betting markets, as they hold a 9-9-1 record against the spread without their franchise signal-caller.

Although the Bengals’ trade for Flacco didn’t miraculously turn the tide in Week 6, the veteran was solid in his first start. With limited time to prepare, Flacco recorded his best PFF overall grade (77.4) of the season and led this offense to its first positive EPA mark of the season. 

The veteran’s experience played a critical role in that success, as he didn’t try to do too much and fed star wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. That will likely be this offense’s initiative moving forward — and a key in this matchup while Pittsburgh’s cornerback room grapples with various injuries and uncertain statuses on a short week. 

Flacco will also face the challenge of making his second start in just nine days. 

Explore Top Player Props

WR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 4.5 receptions (+130) & Anytime TD (+145)

Metcalf is the bona fide No. 1 target in the Steelers’ passing game, a distinction that takes on even more importance for a receiver room limited by Calvin Austin III‘s absence. That was on full display this past week, when Metcalf saw nine of the Steelers’ 29 targets; the only other receiver to see a target was Roman Wilson, who totaled just one. Without Austin in the lineup, Metcalf was targeted on 32.1% of his routes run, an increase of more than 12 percentage points over his rate coming into Week 6.

While the Bengals have shown some flashes in coverage against wide receivers, the unit has allowed the opposing team’s top target to go for five or more receptions in every game this season. They’ve surrendered the 12th-most receptions to receivers and have had difficulties matching up with size on the outside at times. That bodes well for Metcalf, who can use his size-speed combination to erupt in this contest.

The mismatch on the outside will very likely translate into scoring opportunities for Metcalf, who has tallied a touchdown in each of his past four games. While the Steelers prefer to run the ball in condensed fields — ranking 29th in red-zone pass play rate (45.2%) — when they do pass, Metcalf is often involved. Metcalf leads the team in red-zone routes run (15) and touchdowns (two), while standing tied for the team lead in targets and receptions, having hauled in all three of his looks.