Welcome to Week 7! After this week’s games wrap up, we’ll be halfway through the fantasy football regular season. It’s been a brutal six weeks from an injury standpoint. Part of the challenge in handicapping this coming week for fantasy is figuring out who’s going to be able to return from injury (and at what level of effectiveness), and who isn’t, and what the impact is.
For example, if Puka Nacua doesn’t play in Week 7, that’s a big problem for those who have him rostered, but beyond that it impacts the fantasy prospects of Matthew Stafford and the other pass-catchers on the Rams. The list of fantasy-relevant players whose availability is in question this week is long. I’ll try my best to navigate that.
Before we get started, I’d like to talk to the good people of London. Good people of London, I love your city. I spent a college semester there in the 80s and have returned many times since. Your passion for American pro football is great to see. That passion was tested on Sunday. I’d like to apologize for the abomination that the League sent your way last weekend. Of all the completely unwatchable NFL games of the 2000s, and there’ve been a few dozen at least, Broncos 13, Jets 11 was right up there. We’re sorry you had to see that. Give American football another chance! Check out Rams-Jaguars this Sunday. There’s this great young receiver on the Rams you’ve gotta see! He’s leading the league in catches and is second in receiving yards, and get this, he was a fifth-round draft pick! Oh, wait…
On to Week 7.
Stats of the Week:
- Jaxson Dart is just the third quarterback to rush for 50 or more yards in each of his first three NFL starts (joining Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts).
- The Browns haven’t surpassed 17 points in any of their last 11 games.
- Rico Dowdle is the first undrafted player since 1971 to have 200+ yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games.
- On Sunday, Justin Fields became the first quarterback to have nine or fewer completions while suffering nine or more sacks in a game since…Justin Fields, in 2021.
- The Jets had -10 net passing yards on Sunday, and for the game their offense averaged 1.4 yards per play.
- There has only been one instance in the Super Bowl era of left-handed quarterbacks starting against each other (2006, Michael Vick and Chris Simms). Over the next two weeks, the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa will face the Browns and Dillon Gabriel, and then the Falcons and Michael Penix, Jr.
- The Ravens are 1-5. Only four teams in NFL history have made the playoffs following a 1-5 start (most recent: 2020 Washington, who finished 7-9).
- The Titans have scored six TDs in six games. That’s two fewer than Jonathan Taylor.
- The Falcons’ defense hasn’t allowed 300 yards of offense in a game this season.
- Bonus stat, having nothing to do with Week 6 or 7: If Tyreek Hill never plays another down of NFL football, he’ll retire with the exact same number of receiving TDs (83), punt return TDs (4), and kick return TDs (1) as Antonio Brown.
Week 7, here we go!
Bye Weeks: BAL, BUF
Week 7 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Patrick Mahomes or Bijan Robinson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
After back-to-back flamethrower weeks, my Week 6 calls were good, not great. You can check my work here: Week 6.
Ride of the Week: Caleb Williams (vs. NO). Planting my flag on Caleb makes me nervous, but I like what I saw on the road and in the rain on Monday night. I also like what I saw with Ben Johnson’s locker room speech after the game. So even on a short week and with D.J. Moore potentially unavailable, I’ll ride the Bears’ good vibes, culture change, and three-game winning streak against a weak defense that’s travelling. Caleb is ranked near the bottom of the Top-10 this week and I think a Top-5 performance is realistic. He’s scored 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season and will be facing a Saints defense that just got torched at home by Drake Maye (27 fantasy points), and has allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) and the second most TD passes (14) to opposing QBs.
Fade of the Week: A.J. Brown (@MIN). I get that almost nobody is benching Brown, and especially with so many receivers injured and two teams on Bye. But I’m making him my Fade of the Week for the second time this season. The first instance hit, and I think this one will also. The Eagles are trying harder to get the ball to their receivers, and Brown is coming off a good showing against the Giants. But the offense isn’t clicking and the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings’ swarming defense has allowed the fewest catches, yards, and FPPG to opposing wide receivers, with just two TDs allowed to the position in five games. He’ll get his targets, but temper expectations.
Sleeper of the Week: Mason Taylor (vs. CAR). I know it’s hard to trust a guy who had one catch for two yards last week, on a team that had negative passing yards. But hear me out. Garrett Wilson isn’t expected to play this week, and he’s third in the NFL with a 33% target share. Justin Fields has to throw to someone (or he could just stand like a statue and take sack after sack), and before last week Taylor was enjoying a nice breakout. The Panthers have allowed the most yards and the second most FPPG to opposing tight ends, and I think the rookie second-rounder from L.S.U. is a decent bet to finish as a TE1 for the week (Top-12), yet he’s ranked outside the Top-15.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Drake Maye (@TEN). Run it back. Maye is absolutely balling out and gets another chance to feast on a weak opponent. The Patriots are struggling to run the ball, but the passing game is clicking just fine. It’s a revenge game for Mike Vrabel, and I think he’ll have no issue running up the score on his former employer. The Titans have been a difficult matchup for opposing QBs (fifth fewest FPPG allowed), in part because they’ve been so easy to run on, but that doesn’t bother me much. The defense will keep getting the ball back for the offense, and Maye will get his.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include Jared Goff (vs. TB) and Justin Herbert (vs. IND).
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, there are some decent options in Week 7. Trevor Lawrence (vs. LAR) and Aaron Rodgers (@CIN) are my top choices. If you’re desperate, Dillon Gabriel (vs. MIA) is at home against what might be the league’s worst defense (second most FPPG allowed to opposing QBs), and Spencer Rattler (@CHI) and Joe Flacco (vs. PIT) are others you could reach for.
Fades:
Justin Fields (vs. CAR) made my Fades list last week and now he’s without his best weapon, so running it back is an easy call. I do think he’ll be able to get outside the pocket and rush the ball a lot more effectively than was the case against Denver, which doesn’t let any quarterback run. And that’s what you’re banking on if you go with Fields. I don’t see any way he has good passing totals this week, even against a middling Carolina pass defense – not without Wilson. There’s also the outside chance he gets benched mid-game, if the first few drives look like the trainwreck we saw last week. Pass.
I like Jaxson Dart (@DEN) as a QB2 with QB1 upside for the rest of the season, but you’ll want to pick your spots and this isn’t one of them. He stumbled with two costly second-half picks in his only road start, and Denver’s defense is no joke and especially at home. Importantly, they’re very tough in term so limiting QB rushing, and that’s Dart’s calling card. They’ve allowed just 46 rushing yards to quarterbacks on the season, and they’ve played against Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones, among others. Overall, they’ve yielded the second fewest TD passes and FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Dart is a very risky play this week.
Daniel Jones (@LAC) has been a revelation this year, but I think some of the bloom is going to come off the rose on the road this week against a tough Chargers’ defense that is allowing the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and forces turnovers. I’ll also fade the resurgent C.J. Stroud (@SEA).
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week, include Tua Tagovailoa (@CLE), 49ers QBs (vs. ATL, whose defense has quietly been the best in the NFL), Bryce Young (@NYJ), and Geno Smith (@KC).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Quinshon Judkins (vs. MIA). Judkins got game-scripted out of the flow when the Browns fell behind early to the Steelers last week, but I don’t foresee that vs. Miami, and in the three games prior to last week Judkins saw at least 18 carries in each. In the last two weeks, the Dolphins allowed 330 rushing yards to the Hall of Fame combo of backup running backs Rico Dowdle and Kimani Vidal. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards to opposing RBs, and Judkins should eat. I like him for a Top-5 RB finish, and he’s ranked well below that.
Javonte Williams (vs. WAS) had his first down week of the season, but hop back on this week in a division tilt against a Commanders’ defense that couldn’t handle D’Andre Swift on Monday night and is on a short week. The Commanders have been especially susceptible to big plays from running backs in the passing game.
Jaylen Warren (@CIN) gets the most running back-friendly defense in the land on Thursday night, and I like him to beat his weekly ranking (RB17). The Bengals have allowed the second most rush yards, most total TDs, and most FPPG to opposing RBs.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are Kyren Williams (@JAC, London), Breece Hall (vs. CAR, and look for him to be heavily involved in the passing game), Rico Dowdle (@NYJ, and especially if Chuba Hubbard misses another game), “Bill” Merritt (@DAL), J.K. Dobbins (vs. NYG), and D’Andre Swift (vs. NO).
Sleepers:
I’ll try again with Rhamondre Stevenson (@TEN), who is ranked outside the Top-25 running backs this week, despite his lead-back role and a very favorable matchup. The Titans have been atrocious against the run, allowing the second most FPPG and the most rushing TDs (nine) to the position. Always falling behind and never sustaining drives is a big reason why this is happening to their defense. Can you also take a swing with TreVeyon Henderson? I’d prefer not to, but if there was ever a week where he could finally get some opportunities and produce with them, it’s this week. So, if you’re stuck, feel free.
The entire Tennessee offense is a Fade for me, but Tyjae Spears (vs. NE) had an almost even split with Tony Pollard last week, and I think he’s someone you could consider if you’re desperate and especially in Full PPR.
Other running backs ranked outside the Top-25 who I think are potential Flexes if you need them this week: Isiah Pacheco (vs. LV) and Zach Charbonnet (vs. HOU).
Fades:
You aren’t benching Ashton Jeanty (@KC), but I wouldn’t expect an RB1 performance, and maybe not RB2 either. I don’t see a big game for him on the road, in a likely negative game-script and facing a Steve Spagnuolo defense that won’t have a lot to fear in the passing game and will be able to key in on him.
I’ll go ahead and fade Travis Etienne, Jr. (vs. LAR, London). Derrick Henry ran well against the Rams last week, but outside of that they’ve been extremely stingy this season, and Etienne has cooled off big-time the last two weeks after a hot start. He hasn’t cracked eight fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Rams are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed a rushing TD to an opposing running back (and they’ve yielded the second fewest FPPG to the position).
I’ll fade Tony Pollard (vs. NE), for all the reasons discussed above, plus the Pats have been tough on opposing running backs (fifth-fewest FPPG allowed).
I know he dominated touches and did very well last week, but I’m tepid on Kimani Vidal (vs. IND) this week. The Colts aren’t the Dolphins, and have been a bad matchup for running backs (eighth fewest FPPG allowed to the position). Plus, there’s a real usage risk, as Jim Harbaugh could use a “hot hand” approach week-to-week while the starter is out.
I’ll fade all of the Arizona RBs (vs. GB). It’s a committee approach, and the Packers have allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to opposing backs.
I don’t like Woody Marks or Nick Chubb (@SEA) this week. The Seahawks have yielded the second fewest rushing yards and sixth fewest FPPG to opposing running backs, and the split is hard to predict.
Wide receiver:
Which receivers are playing this week? I wish I knew, so I could write something coherent. Keep an eye on the news as it emerges. Among those whose status is in question early in the week: Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Chris Olave, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs, and Jauan Jennings. That’s a lot of good receivers, friends!
Elite options this week – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Drake London. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Even if Lamb and Nacua play, George Pickens (vs. WAS) and Davante Adams (@JAC, London) are must-starts this week, respectively. And if the No. 1s don’t play? Watch out.
If Rashee Rice (vs. LV) has occupied a spot on you roster since the start of the season and you’re 3-3 or better, well done. You’ve waited, so plug him in. The Chiefs’ passing offense is humming, and I think they’ll try to get Rice involved quickly. There’s a chance he gets eased in, or that the ball gets spread pretty evenly among the Chiefs’ top targets, but I suspect he’ll get to his normal target share fairly quickly, while others will give up the bump they’ve gotten with Rice out.
WRs ranked inside the Top-25 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include Rome Odunze (vs. NO), D.K. Metcalf (@CIN), Courtland Sutton (vs. NYG), Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen (vs. IND), Chris Olave (@CHI), Mike Evans (@DET, if he plays), and Jordan Addison (vs. PHI).
Sleepers:
Kendrick Bourne (vs. ATL) makes my sleepers list for the third straight week. The first two results were both 142-yard outings so let’s try again. It’s a tough matchup but he’s the only fully healthy starting-caliber wide receiver on the team.
Like Bourne, Tre Tucker (@KC) is another guy who might be the only healthy (and worthwhile, for fantasy) receiver option on his team. He’s an OK flier if you need him.
Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden (@ARI) are both ranked outside the Top-30 wide receivers this week and I think both can work as WR3 or Flex options in a decent road matchup.
Other wide receivers ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can take a swing on if you’re in need include Tee Higgins (@PIT, and yes, it’s come to this – he’s regularly ranked outside the Top-30 these days), Sterling Shepard (@DET), Kayshon Boutte (@TEN), and Rashid Shaheed (@CHI).
Deeper sleepers (ranked outside the Top-50 for the week) who make for nice DFS swings: Luther Burden III (vs. NO), Jordan Whittington (@JAC, London), and Josh Reynolds (vs. CAR).
Fades:
Stefon Diggs (@TEN). The Patriot receivers feel like they’re interchangeable and as a result, they’re all hard to trust week to week. It’s a decent matchup, but the ball is being spread around when the games aren’t close.
I accurately predicted Tet McMillan’s (@NYJ) first TD last week, and this week I’ll predict a step back. The Jets’ defense has been disappointing, but they did a very good job on Courtland Sutton last week and I think they’ll show up on Sunday in a winnable game. They could shut down Bryce Young and Carolina’s passing game in what figures to be another ugly contest.
I know he scored last week, but I don’t like Cooper Kupp (vs. HOU) against Houston’s tough pass defense. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to receivers and are well-rested coming in.
I’m not playing any Giants’ wide receivers (@DEN). The Broncos have allowed just one receiving TD to the position, and the second fewest FPPG. Plus, it’s an underwhelming group to begin with. Could the Giants be a destination for Jakobi Meyers?
Other wide receivers ranked inside the Top-35 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include DeVonta Smith (@MIN) and Michael Pittman, Jr. (@LAC).
Tight end:
Elite options this week –Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, and Jake Ferguson. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Sam LaPorta (vs. TB) is cooking the last two weeks, and this game could be a shootout. Ride the hot hand.
Cade Otton (@DET) hasn’t done a lot this year, but with the Bucs receivers all dealing with injuries, there’s a good chance he steps up as he did a year ago when Evans and Godwin were out. And again, this game could be very high scoring.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Dallas Goedert (@MIN), Harold Fannin, Jr. (vs. MIA) and in the same game, Darren Waller (@CLE), Hunter Henry (@TEN), and Zach Ertz (@DAL).
Sleepers:
Michael Mayer (@KC) stepped up in a pretty big way last week, and with Brock Bowers likely out again and Meyers questionable, he’s a decent play for a team that should be chasing points the whole way.
Noah Fant (@PIT) is a deep sleeper (ranked outside the Top-25) that I think you can consider if you’re stuck. Mike Gesicki’s injury opens the door, and the Steelers have been a nice matchup for tight ends (third-most FPPG yielded to the position)
Others to consider (outside the Top-15): Evan Engram (vs. NYG), Oronde Gadsden II (vs. IND), and Jonnu Smith (vs. CIN).
Fades:
I’ll go ahead and fade T.J. Hockenson (vs. PHI). He has yet to top 50 receiving yards or 11 fantasy points in a game, and the Eagles have been a very tough matchup for tight ends (third fewest FPPG and just one TD allowed).
I get the desire to fire up George Kittle (vs. ATL) if he plays. You’ve been waiting. I’d play him unless you have another excellent option, but temper expectations. The Falcons have been the single worst matchup for opposing TEs. Kittle is matchup-proof when fully healthy (and especially if Brock Purdy is in at QB, which could be the case this week), but will he be 100%? The Falcons have allowed just 9-88-1 to opposing tight ends across five contests.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-15 for the week): See my Week 7 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 7!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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