Week 6 in the NFL was one that was not kind to some of the perceived best teams in the league. Not only are there no more undefeated teams in the NFL, but there are only four teams who have a single loss this year: the Steelers, Colts, Buccaneers, and Packers*. I don’t think there’s a single person in the world who would’ve expected those teams to hold the best records through six weeks.
*Technically, the Packers have 1.5 losses, because a tie counts as a half-win, half-loss.
And if you wanted to get picky, you could poke holes in all four of those teams. The Steelers nearly lost to the Jets in Week 1, and their other wins weren’t exactly impressive (Patriots, Vikings, Browns). The Colts may have the best argument for the top team, but they essentially should have lost against the Broncos in Week 2 had they not been bailed out by a leverage penalty, and that’s their only quality win on the schedule so far. The Buccaneers make a compelling argument, but their first four wins of the season all came with the go-ahead score in the final minute. Should luck have gone the opposite way, they could theoretically have a losing record. And the Packers? Well, 40-40 is all I need to say there.
That’s all to say that every team in the NFL has their warts, which makes determining the best team in the NFL difficult.
There are also a lot of compelling two-loss teams that could be considered the top team, including the Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams. And, well, let’s not forget the 3-3 Chiefs, either.
So today’s Question of the Day is:
Who is the best team in the NFL through six weeks?
My answer: If you were to look at DVOA, an advanced efficient metric that also takes into account schedule difficulty, the Seahawks, Colts, and Rams currently occupy the top three spots, with the Commanders (pre-“Monday Night Football” loss) and Lions rounding out the top five. A closer look at the stats reveals a pretty darn well-rounded Seahawks team. They’re ranked fourth in offensive DVOA, fourth in defensive DVOA, and second in special team DVOA. Their schedule is mixed. Their losses were to two quality teams (49ers in Week 1 and Buccaneers in Week 5), and they have some decent wins along the way, including the Steelers and Jaguars.
If expected points added (EPA) is your thing, the Colts, Packers, and Lions appear to be the most balanced teams between offense and defense (image via: https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/)
I think the Buccaneers have a compelling argument, as well. Despite living on the edge each week, they’re good on both sides of the ball, and they’ve taken down the Seahawks and 49ers, with their lone loss to the Eagles.
And while I am still skeptical, the Colts need to be in this conversation. Their offense is quite literally unbelievably good right now, ranking first in both scoring and DVOA, and they’re top-10 in points allowed, as well. Their schedule may be unimpressive, but we’ll know soon how they stack up, with games against the Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, Jaguars (x2), and Seahawks coming down the line.
So, to finally answer the question, I think the Buccaneers would currently occupy my top spot, with the Colts and Seahawks not far behind. As for the Detroit Lions, I think they’re probably a top-five team, but they need to get healthier and play a little more consistently before I consider them in the top spot.
Who do you think is the top team in the NFL? Share your answer in the comment section at the bottom of the page.
