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Could Rams’ next QB follow theme of failed top draft picks?

It feels odd to be consistently discussing the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback situation post-Matthew Stafford during a season in which the team sits at 4-2. Matthew Stafford has also had an incredible start to the year, playing at an MVP level. Had the Rams gotten off to a similar start as they did in 2023 […]


It feels odd to be consistently discussing the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback situation post-Matthew Stafford during a season in which the team sits at 4-2. Matthew Stafford has also had an incredible start to the year, playing at an MVP level. Had the Rams gotten off to a similar start as they did in 2023 and 2024, it would make more sense, but this is a team that sits among the top contenders in the NFL. With that said, it also goes to show just how important that decision is for the Rams.

We’re going to attempt to walk and chew gum at the same time here. We can enjoy the ride and appreciate what Stafford is currently doing in his twilight years while also looking ahead to the future and what the potential options might be.

Over the past five years, there has been a rise in late-breakout quarterbacks in the NFL. In a society in which we want instant gratification, patience has proven to be important when it comes to young quarterbacks. Geno Smith went from being a bust to a borderline top-10 quarterback with the Seattle Seahawks. Baker Mayfield was cast aside by the Cleveland Browns and is playing at an MVP level with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sam Darnold turned his career around last season with the Minnesota Vikings while Daniel Jones is doing the same this year with the Indianapolis Colts. In a sense, Jared Goff is part of that career trajectory, playing some of his best football the last two years with the Detroit Lions.

On Monday, the Tennessee Titans fired Brian Callahan after drafting Cam Ward back in April. Given how Darnold has looked again in 2025 and the resurgence of Daniel Jones, it’s a reminder that organizations tend to fail quarterbacks more than quarterbacks fail organizations. Coaching and situation matter and too often organizations don’t provide that infrastructure for a young quarterback. No matter what the Rams do at the quarterback position, there should be confidence that the player will have the benefit of entering a great organization.

With the Rams having two first round picks in the 2026 draft class, a lot of focus has been on which rookies that the team could have interest in and who would be the best fit. At the same time, given how the 2026 quarterback class has performed, the Rams also don’t have to address the position in the draft. It’s very possible that the Rams sign or trade for an experienced quarterback. Some believe that this would actually be head coach Sean McVay’s preferred method as to not have to go through the development phase.

A common theme of all the quarterbacks listed above was that they were failed top picks, spent some time as a backup, and then got an opportunity with an organization that had a better support system. Outside of Geno Smith, all of those quarterbacks were in their age-27 or 28 season. Additionally, they all had 30 or more starts and outside of Smith, they all had 20 or more wins. However, Smith did win 38.7 percent of his starts. All of those quarterbacks won or tied at least 35 percent of their starts. Outside of Goff, they also all spent some time as a backup.

If the Rams opt to go that route, who might fit that mold of a quarterback in their age-27 or 28 season that could have a career resurgence? Two quarterbacks that immediately come to mind:

  • Zach Wilson: Age 26, 33 starts with 12 wins (36.3%), 1 season as backup
  • Mac Jones: Age 27, 53 starts with 23 wins (43.4%), 2 seasons as backup

Outside of those two quarterbacks, you start to look outside some of the thresholds. Justin Fields has a lot of starts, but has only won 28.6 percent of his games. Kenny Pickett has won 15 games, but only has 25 starts which is under 30. Tua Tagovailoa would be on the older side, as he’s currently 27. From there, you start to look ahead and predict the future. How committed to Bryce Young are the Carolina Panthers?

If you follow the theme of former Jets first-round quarterbacks that found a way to succeed elsewhere, Wilson may be the best bet. The quarterback landscape in the NFL can change very quickly. While Wilson may not provide a lot of optimism, arm talent was never an issue with him. An offense like McVay’s could provide him the easy answers and infrastructure needed to succeed.

At the end of the day, the Rams are going to have options and it doesn’t just have to be in the draft. There may be a veteran that unexpectedly becomes available similar to Mayfield in 2022. It’s also unknown how much longer Stafford could play. There is speculation that this year or next year could be his last. If he continues to play at a high level, he may have three years left.

It may still be early to have these discussions, but given the importance of the decision, it is something worth bringing up while also still appreciating what Stafford and the Rams offense are currently achieving. If anything, having these discussions makes you not want it to end and appreciate it that much more.

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