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Week 6 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 7. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.

Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3) [Total: 42.5]

Best Bet: Under 42.5

Riding a two-game win streak and coming off a bye, the Texans, on the surface, seem to have found some answers to their offensive inefficiencies. Since Week 4, they own the highest touchdown drive rate (42.1%) and the second-highest EPA per play (0.261) in the NFL. Some of that stems from the offense’s newfound ability to operate without constant pressure bearing down on quarterback C.J. Stroud.

However, the Seahawks stand in stark contrast to the Ravens‘ and Titans‘ defenses. Mike Macdonald’s unit keeps teams off schedule, ranking fourth best in successful play rate allowed on first and second downs allowed (30.2%) while limiting opposing offenses to scores on just 34.3% of drives (fifth best). As a unit that deploys pass stunts at a top-three rate in the NFL (36.0%) with much success this season, expect Seattle to exploit Houston’s fifth-ranked pressure rate allowed (52.9%) against stunts.

Although the Seahawks have fielded one of the most productive offenses in the NFL, their biggest outputs also came from matchups against defenses that haven’t been able to limit the Sam Darnold–Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection. Houston is relatively well equipped to have an answer behind a defense allowing the second-lowest EPA per pass.

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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (-1.5) [Total: 43.5]

Best Bet: Panthers moneyline

The Panthers put together a terrific performance against the Cowboys in Week 6, finishing with a 60% success rate and averaging 6.45 yards per play. Running back Rico Dowdle contributed another otherworldly performance, running for 183 yards at six yards per carry and adding another 56 yards as a receiver. Dallas’ rushing offense, which ranked first in success rate coming into the game, was stymied, losing nearly -0.45 points per rush and gaining only 31 yards on 19 carries.

There is little to say about the Jets’ Week 6 showing. The team lost yards on dropbacks and put forth one of the worst turnover-less offensive performances in many years. The offense appears to be one of the NFL’s weakest — and should be treated as such.

In this Week 7 matchup with the Panthers, the hapless Jets take on a surging run defense that could give their offense more trouble. Not to mention, Carolina’s ground game and quarterback Bryce Young are firing on all cylinders. The Panthers should have no trouble moving the ball and slowing down New York’s offense. The Jets are also adjusting from a trip to London, so Carolina should end up favored this week.