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NFL Week 6 same-game parlays

Top SGP picks for Week 6, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.


NFL Week 6 same-game parlays

NFL Week 6 same-game parlays

By

Judah Fortgang

Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 6, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Titans QB Cam Ward builds on his Week 5 performance

The Raiders have been one of the league’s biggest pass funnels this season, ranking seventh in EPA allowed against the run but fourth-worst in EPA allowed against the pass. As a result, opponents are throwing against them 2% more than expected when adjusting for game situation, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

While Ward has struggled across most passing metrics this season, one area where he’s been at least average is throwing deep. If he finds success through the air, it’s almost certainly going to come via the deep ball.

Leading the team in routes run, average depth of target and deep separation is Elic Ayomanor, who—along with Calvin Ridley—figures to command the bulk of Ward’s deep targets.

SGP Build: 75-1 on DraftKings

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins catch up to an injury-depleted Chargers team

One way to expand on our matchups-based bet fading Justin Herbert’s protection is to back the Dolphins on the other side, betting on increased play volume and a favorable game script as the path to victory.

The Dolphins have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL this season, which should lead to plenty of play volume through the air—even if the efficiency dips, the yardage should still pile up.

Perhaps to compensate for injuries, the Chargers have shifted their defensive approach, blitzing on 40% of dropbacks over the last two weeks (up from roughly 25% in the first three games) and playing man coverage nearly 30% of the time (up from about 15%). That could spell trouble against Tua Tagovailoa, who has shredded man coverage this season with the best EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks.

If the Chargers struggle in pass protection, they may be forced to lean on the ground game — even while playing from behind — making Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins intriguing negative-correlation options within this parlay.

SGP Build: 31-1 on Draftkings

Patrick Mahomes and Tyquan Thornton burn the Detroit Lions secondary deep downfield

Despite Xavier Worthy’s return, Tyquan Thornton maintained a solid role in the Chiefs’ offense, running a route on 50% of the team’s dropbacks. He now draws a strong matchup against a depleted Lions secondary and a scheme that plays to his strengths—man coverage and single-high safety looks.

Detroit has utilized single-high coverage on 63% of defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

This is exactly the kind of coverage look where Tyquan Thornton has thrived this season. He ranks third in the NFL in separation rate against man coverage, carries a solid grade at the catch point and boasts a 2.0 yards per route run average. Thornton also plays one of the deepest roles in the league, making each target he sees especially valuable from a yardage standpoint.

With Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both questionable and the Lions’ secondary already thin, a deep-ball connection to Thornton would signal the Chiefs are firing on all cylinders — and capitalizing on Detroit’s defensive injuries.

SGP Build: 37-1 on FanDuel

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Our blog is all about curating the best stories, insights, and updates on your favorite teams. Whether you’re a passionate fan or just love the game, SportSourcio is here to keep you connected with what’s happening on and off the field.

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