Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4) at 8:00 p.m. Thursday
The Line: Eagles minus-7.5/Total: 42.5
What is the line telling you:
The line on this matchup has been bouncing between Philadelphia -7 and -7.5 all week, as almost 75% of the early tickets punched in both the U.S. and offshore markets are on the Eagles. Bettors are expecting a bounce-back performance after the Eagles gave up 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter last week to the Broncos, handing them their first loss of the season.
The betting market hasn’t been kind to teams receiving 60% or more of the tickets this year; those teams have covered the spread only 30% of the time. The Eagles definitely need to address the issues plaguing them in the second half of games recently. Over the first three weeks of the season, they outscored their opponents 39-14 after halftime and won all three games. But over the last two weeks, they’ve been outscored 37-7 and have gone 1-1.
Bottom line:
At first glance, you’d think playing the 1-4 Giants would be the perfect bounce-back spot, but any time you’re facing a divisional home underdog on a short week, it’s never easy. These coaching staffs know each other like the back of their hands.
It’s hard backing the Eagles here at -7.5. They haven’t won a game by more than six points all season—other than the miracle win against the Rams. This Eagles offense has been sluggish, ranking 29th in the NFL at just 4.4 yards per play. All five of the Giants’ opponents this season rank higher than the Eagles in that same offensive metric.
The biggest issue for the Giants has been ball security. They rank 29th in turnover differential, and last week alone they turned the ball over five times in their 26-14 loss to the Saints. As long as the Giants don’t turn the ball over two or three times Thursday night, they should be able to stay within the Vegas number of +7.5.
Ultimately, we think the Eagles win the game, so including Philadelphia in a 7-point teaser with the Under is worth a shot. Both offenses have struggled all year, and losing Nabers has limited the Giants’ offensive production. Both teams strength is their defense. The play is the Giants +7.5 (or +7 depending on your sportsbook) and Eagles PK and under 48 in a 7-point teaser.
Prop bets for the game:
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-170)
Cameron Skattebo Anytime TD (+140)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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