The Detroit Lions are surprisingly an underdog heading into their Week 6 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Lions are riding a four-game winning streak, while the 2-3 Chiefs have been pretty flawed through their first five games.
Obviously, the Chiefs being the home team helps a little when it comes to the Vegas lines, but Kansas City has already been the home underdog… twice. They were 1.5-point dogs against the Eagles (and promptly lost), and they were 2.5-point underdogs when they hosted the Ravens two weeks ago (a game they won).
It’s unclear why the Lions are currently 2.5-point underdogs. Perhaps it has to do with their injuries in the secondary or the uncertainty around the left tackle position. Regardless of the reason, let’s spin things the other way. Today’s Question of the Day is:
Why should Lions fans be confident in a win over the Chiefs?
My answer: There are a lot of reasons, but I think the primary one is simple: they’re the best team the Chiefs will have faced so far.
Kansas City’s three losses were to good teams: Chargers, Eagles, and Jaguars. But the Eagles are struggling to find an offensive identity and scored just 20 points in that game. The Chargers are a bit up-and-down and have now dropped two in a row to the Giants and Commanders. The Jaguars have had a promising start—particularly on defense—but they’re a bit chaotic on offense.
Meanwhile, the Lions look dominant in just about every way. They’re second in the NFL in point differential. They’re first in DVOA. And look how separated the Lions are from the rest of the Chiefs’ opponents when it comes to this chart mapping offensive and defensive EPA.
Don’t get me wrong. I think this will be a close game. The Chiefs are starting to figure things out on offense, and while their defense has gotten off to a disappointing start, Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in football. It won’t be long before they start to settle in.
Still, don’t let the Vegas line fool you; this will be the Chiefs’ biggest challenge yet this season, and given their inability to beat a good opponent yet, Lions fans should come into Sunday night with a fair amount of confidence.
Why are you confident about Sunday night? Share your reasoning in the comment section at the bottom of the page.
