The Miami Dolphins are not a good football team. That much, we know.
But, exactly how bad are the Dolphins this year? To find out, we have to dive into the numbers.
Every week, Ben Baldwin of The Athletic looks at number of advanced metrics for each NFL team, and categorizes teams into quadrants. The best teams fall into the top-right quadrant, while the worst teams fall into the bottom-left quadrant.
To begin, Baldwin looks at EPA, or expected points added.
- EPA is simply the difference between a team’s expected point value before and after a play.
- Expected point value is determined by historical data, which shows the average points any given team is likely to score based on their current field position, down, and distance to a first down.
- A positive EPA means the play increased the team’s likelihood of scoring, while a negative EPA means it decreased the likelihood (vice-versa on defense).
Based on these numbers, through five weeks, Miami has one of the worst defenses in the league, with a slightly above average offense. Not surprising to those who’ve watched the team this year, but it’s nice when the numbers back up the eye-test.
If you look at first-down conversion rates, the same narrative forms. The Dolphins are above average at moving the chains on offense, but among the worst units in the league at getting off the field on defense.
In the trenches, Miami’s issues are arguably even worse. The Dolphins spent their first two selections in the 2025 NFL Draft in the trenches, drafting DT Kenneth Grant in the first round and OG Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round. Those two additions, coupled with the return of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips on defense (and the signing of guard James Daniels in free-agency) led many to believe that the Dolphins would be strong in the trenches this year.
But through five weeks, that isn’t the case.
As shown above, the Dolphins are getting killed in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their pass protection is quite literally the worst in the league, with their run-blocking, pass-rushing, and run-defense grades all ranked bottom-3 or worse (via PFF/ESPN).
However, there is one graph where the Dolphins find themselves in the top-right quadrant, and that’s aggressive on 4th-down. When the analytics are a toss-up between punting and going for it on 4th-down, head coach Mike McDaniel tends to go for it.
So, through five weeks of the 2025 NFL season, the Dolphins are a terrible, terrible football team. The analytics are not in their favor, and there doesn’t seem to be many signs of incoming explosion on offense or defense. Simply put, it’s a poorly-constructed roster with a number of injuries, and the numbers back it up.
Are you surprised to see the Dolphins ranked so low statistically? What needs to change? Let us know in the comments below!
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