The 1-4 New York Giants face a quick turnaround in Week 6 as they host the 4-1 Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife Stadium for a Thursday Night Football showdown in the NFC East. The Giants enter as 7.5-point home underdogs, with the Over/Under set at 40.5 points.
Philadelphia is coming off a tough Week 5 loss, blowing a 17-3 lead at home against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, who scored 18 unanswered to hand the Eagles their first defeat of the season. Prior to that, the Eagles notched victories over the Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, and Cowboys.
The Eagles have dominated the Giants since the 2016 season, with a 14-4 overall record. That includes a crushing 38-7 win over the Giants in the 2022 Divisional Round playoffs. At least we can hang our hats on all four of those Giants wins coming in East Rutherford, N.J. — small victories!
Despite the record, the Eagles have found themselves marred with offensive frustration, as Saints’ current head coach, Kellen Moore, appears surely missed. New offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo has drawn the ire of star wide receiver, A.J. Brown, who was held to less than 50 yards in all but one game (Rams). Wide receiver DeVonta Smith has also voiced his displeasure with the Eagles’ passing attack.
The defense, however, is still coordinated by one of the best in the game, Vic Fangio. Jaxson Dart will have the unfortunate task of facing Fangio and an impressive, explosive, young defense.
Eagles defensive statistics
Philadelphia ranks 16th in points scored around the NFL; their defense averages 21.8 points surrendered per game. The Giants, for reference, is 22nd with an average of 25.4 points allowed. The Eagles rank 21st in the league in yards allowed, with an average of 338.2 yards surrendered per game.
However, Philadelphia has the third-best red zone scoring percentage in the NFL; the Eagles allow a touchdown on 42.8% of opponent red zone trips. Philadelphia allows 211.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 15th in the league. They allow 126.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 21st in the NFL.
Philadelphia has blitzed at a 20.5% rate, which ranks in the middle of the pack. They have earned pressure on just 15.9% of their pass rushes, which ranks 22nd in the league. Philadelphia has only allowed six passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns. The Eagles also blocked multiple kicks this season, two against the Rams; one came in the final seconds of the game and resulted in the Eagles’ defeat of the Los Angeles Rams.
The matchup
Vic Fangio
Vic Fangio’s influence on the NFL is undeniable. He’s laid deep roots that continue to shape modern defensive football. Brandon Staley, Ed Donatell, Sean Desai, and Joe Barry all originate from the Fangio tree. So what does Vic Fangio do defensively?
Fangio’s typical defensive scheme is a lot of quarters/palms — a lot of match principles. He typically relied on a lot of two-read and two-high safety shells to force the checkdown and prevent explosive plays. This year, however, the Eagles have aligned in a middle-of-the-field closed formation at a higher rate, with slightly more Cover 3 than Cover 1.
Fangio relies heavily on disguise, using simulated pressures and post-snap rotations to generate pressure with just four rushers. He’s not known for frequent blitzing, instead preferring to confuse quarterbacks with coverage looks. His scheme often features lighter boxes, occasionally inviting the run. Against this type of look, I expect the Giants to recognize lighter fronts on third-and-long situations. That could prompt Brian Daboll to be more aggressive — potentially using both downs in those spots near midfield, rather than punting twice as he did against the Saints.
Fangio will stunt and exchange gaps against the run and pass. Like the Saints did, I expect Fangio to slant the defensive line toward the path of the running back, which provides opportunities to clog up rushing lanes, preventing blockers from reaching potential unblocked second-level defenders, who can block the running back’s path. To counter this, the Giants could look to incorporate misdirection concepts that exploit these aggressive post-snap adjustments.
The zone blitzes and simulated pressures will look to manipulate the Giants’ protection. Zach Baun, Jihaad Campbell, and defensive backs Cooper DeJean and Andrew Mukuba are deceptive and often around the line of scrimmage. They’ll be assets in the pass rush, as others like Jaylx Hunt, Zadarius, and Nolan Smith will drop into coverage on occasion.
The Eagles have an explosive and talented defense that fits the scheme employed by Fangio well. The veteran coach turned New Orleans’ Saints castaway, Zach Baun, into an All-Pro last year. An infusion of young talent, including wrecking ball DL Jalen Carter, star CB Quinyon Mitchell, and the aforementioned DeJean, Mukuba, Campbell, Hunt, and Nolan Smith, are all budding stars in their first three seasons.
New York will not have an easy go against a defense this talented, especially one that will disguise its intentions well against a rookie quarterback making his third NFL start. Vic Fangio has coached 26 games against rookie quarterbacks over the past 14 seasons; Fangio is 18-8 in those games, and offenses average just over 19 points per game.
Giants’ game plan
I don’t expect Fangio to align in quarters as much as his reputation would suggest — he’s relied a lot more on Cover-3 match recently. Still, if Fangio looks to keep the umbrella over the offense, the Giants must incorporate a power-rushing attack beyond just DUO. Mike Kafka added a few more single-puller power runs to the offense in Week 5, with the backside guard and tackle pulling individually.
Adjusting to the quickness of Carter, while also generating movement against Jordan Davis, will likely be a problem for the Giants’ interior offensive line. New York will use 12 personnel a lot, again, especially if Darius Slayton is inactive. New York can look to establish the run and conservatively control the clock, but it behooves them to dial up some shots to open up the box.
Daniel Bellinger was an asset for the Giants’ offense in New Orleans. Both Bellinger and starting tight end Theo Johnson will be up against quicker linebackers at the second level. New York may look to get Gunner Olszewski or practice squad Lil’Jordan Humphries involved in 11 personnel, depending on the health of Slayton.
The Eagles love big, physical defensive linemen who can control their gaps in the run game, so the rushing attack will likely need the tight ends to assist. Moro Ojomo is no slouch; the 24-year-old, 295-pound lineman who plays end is a difficult task for any tight end. Ojomo also currently leads the Eagles with 16 pressures.
Fangio will likely match nickel with the Giants’ 12 personnel in more passing-oriented down-and-distances. The Giants could look to out-physical Philadelphia, who will likely press smaller defenders like DeJean and Mukuba up toward the line of scrimmage. Both players, however, are quality run defenders. The Giants will need to get into their coaching bag, they must execute, and they CAN’T turn the football over.
I wish the Giants currently had someone who could test the Eagles’ cornerback two position. Mitchell is an absolute stud, but Kelee Ringo, who started the last two games for Philadelphia, is still a raw talent who hasn’t fully developed his entire skill set yet. He’s a player to target, but it’s unclear if the Giants have anyone healthy who can consistently threaten or win that matchup.
If it’s not Ringo, then Adoree’ Jackson will be on the football field, which could play into the advantage of Jalin Hyatt or Beaux Collins. The safeties, Sydney Brown and Reed Blankenship, are both physical and smart players who are typically assignment sound. The inevitable meeting of Cam Skattebo and Sydney Brown in the hole will be fun to watch.
The Giants must focus on the quick passing attack, play-action, RPO/Option plays, as well as dialed-up deep shots with clearly defined check-downs for Dart. The RPO and option attack could hold key defenders like Baun and Nolan Smith in place.
Final thoughts
For a 4-1 team, the Eagles have issues, specifically on offense. Fangio’s defense is still elite and will be a problem for Jaxson Dart and the Giants’ wounded offense. The offensive struggles haven’t mattered much, though, in the grand scheme of things for Philadelphia; the Eagles rank 12th in the NFL in points scored. This game would not seem nearly as daunting if the Giants weren’t such a complete mess, a team that can’t get out of its own way. That struggling team — with scorching hot seats that sear skin upon touch, third degree burn status — will play the defending Super Bowl Champions in a get-right situation. Thursday night could be very ugly for Brian Daboll and the Giants.
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