Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
HOW WELL?
In week 5, Daniel Jones avoided turnovers and sacks and put up another highly efficient game, ranking 6th in both EPA efficiency and QB Success Rate. His positive plays were highly productive, while his negative plays minimized damage.
His weekly numbers show that he has been very consistent so far, with only the LA game falling short of top-tier performance. What he has done so far in Indy is nothing short of remarkable.
HOW FAR?
There’s really nothing to pick apart here. He completed plenty of passes, moved the chains consistently, and added a couple of touchdowns. He stayed under 20 air yards for most of the game, but that’s not a negative. Deep passes are exciting, but consistent completions are what get you to the end zone.
Jones still has an above average depth of target and depth of completion.
TO WHO?
He continues to distribute the ball effectively. Downs led the team in targets, but Dulin ultimately edged him out in total yards.
For the season, Warren still leads in yards and Pittman leads in targets and I am OK with that.
The shorter throws earned less EPA, which is common.
All receivers except for Mitchell are providing outstanding value per target.
HOW ACCURATE?
Jones’ completion rate was high, but with the shorter throws, that was expected. His CPOE dipped below average for the first time this year, but that isn’t a concern at this point. His ability to complete passes with the Colts is far ahead of where he was with the Giants.
HOW FAST?
He was very quick with his throws this week, and after adjusting for passing depth, he’s getting rid of the ball faster than almost every QB in the league. My number one complaint about the new breed of running QBs is that they hold onto the ball too long—inviting pressure and abandoning the pass to scramble, which is usually a bad trade-off. Jones doesn’t do that.
TO WHERE?
He mostly stayed within 20 yards, and it worked out well. The right side of the field wasn’t working for him this week, so it’s good that he steered away from it.
Notice the lack of red in the following graph—Jones has been effective all over the field.
DASHBOARD
epa/d,
arsr,
edp,
opd,
pr%,
tip,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
yac,
yacoe,
yd/c,
ac%,
cpoe,
aypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
ny/p,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
qbsr
epa/p,
adj/p
- Despite the run game performing at a high level, the Colts stuck with a pass-first offense (2nd asr, 5th edp)
- Jones was not pressured much, mostly because he got rid of the ball so quickly (22ndpr%, 26th ttt)
- His passing depth was about average, but his completions were much deeper than average. That usually implies a trade-off in YAC, but even so, the Colts’ receivers gave him very little after the catch (17th adot, 8th ay/c, 31st yac, 22nd yacoe)
- His 73.3% adjusted completion rate (drops and throw-aways removed) was only slightly above average, resulting in a less-than-impressive yards per attempt (14th ac%, 17th aypa).
- He didn’t scramble, instead relying on throw-aways to handle pressure, resulting in no sacks and a continued low abandonment rate (29th scr%, 10th ta%, 20th sck%, 28th aa%)
- That boosted his net yards per play, but it was still only about league average. (15th ny/d, 15th ny/p)
- Where he excelled was in the value plays that aren’t measured in yards. He threw for a lot of first downs, added a couple of touchdowns, and didn’t turn the ball over (7th 1st%, 9th TD%, 24th TO%). That dramatically lifted his “just average” overall yardage efficiency to the 6th-best EPA efficiency of the week.
ay<,
dp%,
ay/c,
yac,
yd/c,
ac%,
aypa,
drp%,
aypa,
ta%,
ypa,
sck%,
ny/a,
scr%,
ny/d,
car%,
ny/p,
1st%,
any/p,
td%,
any/p,
to%,
any/p,
epa/p,
opd,
adj/p
His efficeicny curve shows no real weaknesses. He is highly efficient and even after adjusting for opponent he is a top 5 QB.
In 2019, the Colts jumped out to a 5-2 start under Jacoby Brissett, but that was really a mirage. Brissett played well, but there were clear red flags in his numbers that signaled it couldn’t last. I see no such weaknesses in Jones’ play so far—he’s light years ahead of what Brissett delivered then. I hate the term “elite,” but if people are going to use it, they should be applying it to Jones’ first 5 weeks as a Colt
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