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This article breaks down the factors that drive line movement in betting markets and helps you judge whether a shift is an overreaction or a justified adjustment. Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few of the forces that can swing numbers.
Early in the season, markets are especially volatile as oddsmakers and bettors alike search for a true read on each team. Big swings are common, and while knowing that lines move is useful, the real edge comes from understanding why they move. This information can shape your stance and identify the right entry points.
College football markets, in particular, are getting bet into perceived efficiency earlier than ever. What was once a slow game of chicken, waiting for the best number at a decent limit, has become a sprint, with bettors and touts racing to the window before limits peak later in the week.
We’ll examine notable market maker opening lines and how we’ve seen them move since Sunday.
Movement: Missouri +5.5 -> +3
Missouri’s first major test of the season comes in Week 7, with Alabama coming to town. So far, the market believes the Tigers will pass. After opening at 5.5, there’s been plenty of Missouri support driving this line all the way down to 3. After reaching 3, the market has held firm, with no Alabama buyback to be found. There are very few, and heavily juiced, 2.5s out there, but we shouldn’t expect to see a reasonably priced 2.5 at any point before kickoff.
At 3.5, I’d partake in the Tigers’ party, but that number’s long gone. The one angle that’s important to note here is the running ability of Missouri QB Beau Pribula. A running quarterback has given Alabama’s defense fits over the last two seasons. As recently as last week, Vanderbilt played within the number and had the cover secured prior to letting up a 20-yard touchdown run with 24 seconds to play. Vanderbilt is, of course, led by mobile QB Diego Pavia.
Movement: Indiana +10 -> +7.5
Plenty of movement here. The initial move was a dip below 10 to 9.5, but it was quickly pushed back up to double digits. From there, it’s been all Indiana money coming in to drive this line down to 7.5. The total has also been on the move, upward from 51.5 to 55.5. That’s not surprising given the fact that both teams will roll out Heisman contenders at QB in Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza.
Play: Indiana +7.5 -110 at FanDuel
This, to me, screams a very similar spot to the one we identified a couple of weeks ago, with Ole Miss playing against LSU. Oregon’s one spot in which it has been tested this year was a double-overtime thriller at Penn State. That Penn State team turned around and lost as a 24-point favorite the following week. Indiana, on the other hand, has had a few legitimate wins, and I love catching more than a touchdown here. I expect this number to close at 7, and wouldn’t be surprised to see 6.5s start to surface.
Movement: Total 62.5 -> 60.5
For the last couple of weeks, Notre Dame totals have been bet up, as if someone knew what the final score was going to be. This week, we’ve seen the opposite, with the total dropping two points from the opener. There are some 60s out here now as well. Despite the total falling, Notre Dame has also moved from -21 to -22.5. Before last week, Notre Dame games had eclipsed all four totals.
Play: Over 60.5 +100 at ESPN
I think this is an overreaction to the 35-point output we saw between Notre Dame and Boise State last week. As noted in the PFF College Football Show, N.C. State likely aims to control the clock to limit Notre Dame possessions, covering up a potential tackling weakness for the Wolfpack. However, with the spread on the rise as well, I see Notre Dame dictating the pace and getting back into a high-scoring game environment.
Movement: Oklahoma +3 -> +1
The Red River Rivalry projects to be one of the most competitive games of the week. Everything, mainly the spread, hinges on the health of Oklahoma QB John Mateer. This opening at Texas -3 to me implied that Mateer would not play. Where the line stands today feels right for if Mateer should miss, so I wouldn’t interpret the movement as confirmation that Mateer goes. Should he start, I’d anticipate this flipping to Oklahoma as a small favorite. There are pretty much 1s across the board, with a couple of 1.5s remaining.
Michigan vs. USC
Movement: Total 54.5 -> 58
Points are on the menu for this Big Ten matchup. After opening up at 58.5, it’s been one-way action on the over, pushing this number up to as high as 58. The market is currently split between 57.5 and 58. Will USC’s high-flying offense push Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood into his first real shootout game? The market seems to think so, with this total nearly 10 points higher than any other game Michigan has played in this year.
