Teams with ties win playoff tiebreakers more than you think. Should the Rams have played for a tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday and at least tried to match the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, both of whom earned a tie on Sunday (the first tie game in three years), just in case the NFC playoff wild card picture comes down to L.A. against either of those teams?
Winning is better than tying, but think of it this way:
What if this game happened in Week 18 and the Rams knew for sure that a tie would get them into the playoffs over the Packers? Would McVay have still played for the win if all he needed was a tie?
McVay said that the field goal was never a consideration. Would he have said that if the Rams knew that a tie would get them into the playoffs? Because even though it’s only Week 5, this season could come down to losing a game that L.A. might have been able to tie.
2022 tie tiebreakers
In 2022, the 9-7-1 New York Giants made the playoffs over the 9-8 Detroit Lions. New York was the worse team that year (outscored by 6 points) but a Week 13 tie to the Commanders allowed Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones to overcome a season in which they lost six of their last 10 games.
Despite playing that poorly, the Giants made the playoffs and beat the Vikings in the wild card round. That tie allowed the Giants to WIN a playoff game.
The Lions would have made the playoffs over the Giants if New York hadn’t accepted a tie against Washington; Detroit had beaten the Giants during the regular season. But that win proved meaningless because the Giants ended one of their games in a tie after Graham Gano missed a 58-yard field goal at the buzzer.
2021 tie tiebreakers
A year earlier, the 9-7-1 Steelers earned a wild card spot in the AFC over the Miami Dolphins, L.A. Chargers, and Indianapolis Colts, all three of whom went 9-8 and missed the postseason.
The Steelers lost to the Chargers in the regular season but made the playoffs over them because they tied the Lions 16-16 in Week 11, partly thanks to Ryan Santoso missing a 48-yard field goal for the Lions.
McVay can poopoo ties all he wants, there were playoff teams in 2021 and 2022 because they tied games during the regular season and gained an advantage over teams that didn’t. And oh by the way, tying the 49ers would have been doubly good because the Rams could have tried to give San Francisco a tie instead of a win. It’s better for the Rams to not fall an extra game behind the 49ers in the division if they tie, but McVay says he never once considered this.
Is that just machismo or is it good strategy?
2018 tie tiebreakers
In 2018, a tie didn’t factor into the playoff race, but it would have if the format was the same as it is in 2025. There were only two wild cards in 2018, but if there were three wild cards, then 9-6-1 Pittsburgh would have made the playoffs over 9-7 Titans.
The Steelers tied the Browns in Week 1 that season. If it was a bigger playoff picture (and we won’t know what would have happened in a 17-game season) this first game of the season might have been the difference in the Steelers making the playoffs or not.
I don’t care if it’s unpopular: The FG would have been a fine call!
I don’t have a problem with McVay going for it on fourth down — it was obviously a bad play call, in which case maybe they should have kicked the FG if that was the call — but let’s stop pretending that the field goal was the wrong call and that it’s okay that the Rams never even considered it.
If it was the end of the season and you knew by then that a tie would get you into the playoffs, would you consider it then? If the answer is yes, then you should have considered it in Week 5. Or you’re just not thinking about the big picture at all because of some “honor code” or something.
Yes, the Rams have struggled to consistently get off field goals and Josh Karty has had a rough season. Then you’ve got a huge problem on your hands moving forward if you can’t consider kicking easy field goals.
The other side of this is that if the Rams tie the game 26-26 and kickoff, they could still get the ball back and win!
How was this never a consideration?
There was 3:41 left at the end of the game. That’s plenty of time to kick the field goal, Karty kick off (which could result in a turnover, as we’ve seen), and stop the 49ers and force them to punt. The Rams had a timeout left. There was a 2-minute warning. 3:41 is a LOT of time. The Rams could have played for the tie AND the win! They instead called a play that guaranteed them a loss.
So fans can say that it is crazy to play for a tie or crazy to kick a field goal when all you need is a yard. That yard, by the way, doesn’t guarantee a win; the Rams are one of the worst red zone teams in the NFL so far this season. We can’t pretend that the Rams would have won the game even if they had achieved the first down. In fact, they could have still tied.
Should the Rams have played for the tie? Maybe, or maybe not. But to openly admit that it was never under consideration to kick the field goal, it’s the same as telling the world that you’d rather look cool than look ahead.
