The Detroit Lions face off against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, and as 10.5-point road favorites, it looks like the Lions could be on track for another multi-touchdown victory. But is this matchup really that lopsided? Let’s take a closer look in our Detroit Lions Week 5 preview and prediction. It’s On Paper time!
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. Bengals pass defense (27th)
Detroit’s passing chart may not look as green as you’d expect, especially considering that Week 1 “disaster” actually falls right within the Packers’ defensive averages. But it turns out the defenses of the Bears and Ravens aren’t that good, while the Browns’ passer rating average is surprisingly high.
Still, for the season, they’re regularly outperforming averages (remember: positive percentages are good for the offense, negative percentages are good for the defense). And in terms of raw numbers, this passing attack is putting up mostly top-five numbers:
- 7.6 yards per attempt (ninth)
- 113.0 passer rating (third)
- 0.26 EPA/pass (first)
- 53.0% dropback success rate (fourth)
The key to Detroit’s recent success is their pass protection. The Lions have not allowed a sack in three games, have the 13th-best pressure rate allowed (32.6%), rank 14th in pass block win rate, and 13th in PFF’s team pass blocking grade. When kept clean, Jared Goff ranks fourth in EPA/dropback (0.47), third in passer rating (131.4), second in passer rating (81.4%), second in completion percentage over expected (+10.6%), and first in passing touchdowns (nine).
Not only has the Bengals defense been pretty bad against the pass this year, but they’ve been bad against teams that aren’t particularly good at passing the ball. By passer rating, the Bengals haven’t faced a passing offense ranked better than 21st. By yards per game, no opposing offense currently ranks better than 16th.
Things look a little better when you look at the raw data (because it doesn’t take into account strength-of-opponent).
- 7.1 yards per attempt (21st)
- 90.0 passer rating (16th)
- 0.06 EPA/pass (23rd)
- 48.8% dropback success rate (22nd)
To rank in the bottom half—sometimes in the bottom third—against these poor passing attacks is a concerning sign for Bengals fans.
What’s even worse for this particular week for Cincinnati is their pass rush. They rank 25th in pass rush win rate, 26th in PFF grade, 28th in pressure percentage, and tied for 24th in sacks.
If there’s one thing they’re okay at, it’s coverage. They rank 18th in PFF’s coverage grade (57.6), with corner/nickelback Dax Hill leading the way (70.3).
Player to watch: Hill vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Hill is capable of playing the outside and in the nickel position, which means he’ll likely be lined up opposite St. Brown early and often. St. Brown has been damn-near impossible to stop, but Hill will be one of his bigger tests so far.
Advantage: Lions +2.5. While my scale goes from 0-5, sample sizes are too low for me to push beyond a 3.0 in advantages here. My only real concern for the Lions offense here is Trey Hendrickson, but Detroit had a good game plan for limiting Myles Garrett’s impact last week, and I think they could do the same with Hendrickson.
Lions run offense (5th) vs. Bengals run defense (26th)
The Lions’ rushing attack is back on track after an uncharacteristic opener against the Packers. Even last week’s mediocre game against the Browns should be considered one of their biggest successes, considering how stout that Cleveland defense is.
Much like the passing offense, the Lions’ run game should be considered a top-10 unit:
- 4.7 yards per carry (eighth)
- -0.028 rush EPA (10th)
- 44.0% success rate (eighth)
Those numbers may seem average, but it’s worth noting Detroit has played two of the best run defenses in football in the Packers (second in yards allowed) and Browns (first)—though they’ve also played two of the worst in the Ravens (27th) and Bears (32nd).
The offensive line has been a mixed bag, but it’s climbing up the rankings. They rank 12th in adjusted line yards, fourth in PFF run block grade, but just 29th in run block win rate.
The Bengals have faced some tough rushing attacks, and it has not gone particularly well. Their lone good performance against the Browns was prior to Cleveland having rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Otherwise, they’re giving up over 5.0 yards per carry and 164 rushing yards per game in the past three weeks. It doesn’t look any better looking at some advanced metrics:
- 4.5 yards per carry (19th)
- 0.037 rush EPA (27th)
- 45.1% success rate (24th)
- 5.26 adjusted line yards (32nd)
What’s particularly puzzling is that the Bengals actually have big, strong run defenders up the gut. Kris Jenkins, B.J. Hill, and T.J. Slaton are, on paper, massive bodies to deal with, but it just hasn’t been clicking with new defensive coordinator Al Golden.
Player to watch: David Montgomery. Montgomery had a rough game last week (nine carries, 12 yards). Now playing his first NFL game in his hometown, I’m expecting a big bounce-back week.
Advantage: Lions +2. While Detroit’s run game hasn’t quite reached the standard from last year, it’s getting there. And most metrics seem to suggest they won’t have too many problems with this Bengals defensive front.
Bengals pass offense (29th) vs. Lions pass defense (13th)
Before I start trashing the Bengals’ offense, it’s worth taking a moment and looking at their opponents through four weeks. They have faced a gauntlet of defenses so far. The Browns, Jaguars, Vikings, and Broncos all rank in the top 13 in yards per play allowed, and each team but the Browns ranks in the top 10 in points allowed. It’s been a terrible stretch to be missing your All-Pro quarterback.
But with DVOA accounting for opponent adjustments now, you can see that Cincy’s passing problems go beyond their difficult schedule. Jake Browning, now in for injured Joe Burrow, has struggled immensely. Per NFL Pro, Browning ranks:
- 33rd out of 33 in EPA/dropback (-0.57)
- 31st in passer rating (67.9)
- 26th in yards per attempt (6.0)
- 23rd (out of 29) in PFF passing grade (69.6)
Obviously, the Bengals have a litany of receiving options. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are arguably the best duo in football, and safety valves Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki are pretty decent, too.
Pass protection hasn’t helped, though. The Bengals rank 32nd in pass block win rate, 28th in PFF grade, 22nd in pressure rate, and 29th in sack percentage.
The Lions’ pass defense has played average football so far this year. They have two good performances and two bad ones.
If there’s one area of this Lions team to feel uneasy about, it’s this. They rank middle of the pack, at best, in most statistics you can look at:
- 7.6 yards per attempt (25th)
- 95.1 passer rating (19th)
- -0.06 EPA/pass (14th)
- 40.1% dropback success rate (third)
And that last number gives us hope. As pointed out in previous weeks, the poor numbers combined with a very strong defensive success rate suggest the Lions are simply giving up too many big plays that are tipping the scales unfavorably. That continues to hold up, as Detroit has allowed 25 passing plays of 15 yards or more (t-sixth most). The good news is that the Bengals’ offense has been terrible at creating explosive plays through the air. They have just 12 passing plays of 15+ yards. Only two teams have fewer.
Detroit’s pass rush is slow but effective. They are allowing 3.00 seconds per throw (31st) and rank 28th in pass rush win rate (wins are defined by beating a block within 2.5 seconds). However, the Lions rank fourth in pressure rate (42.1%), first in sack percentage (10.0%), and sixth in PFF pass rush grade (81.1). It’s clear their marriage of pass rush and coverage is working.
But their coverage could take a hit this week with top corner D.J. Reed out for at least four games with a hamstring injury. Terrion Arnold (43.1 PFF coverage grade) and Amik Robertson (58.1) are expected to step in, and they will have to play better to stand a chance.
Player to watch: Ja’Marr Chase. Despite low production so far (26 catches, 264 yards, 1 TD), Chase remains one of the best receivers in the game. And given his recent public grumblings, don’t be surprised if they try to feed him early and often.
Advantage: Lions +0.5. I’m probably being overly conservative here, but I just don’t have a ton of faith in Detroit’s pass defense right now. The coverage has not been particularly good so far, and it’s bound to be worse with Reed out. I don’t expect Browning to throw for 300 yards and multiple scores, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have some success moving the Bengals offense down the field. After all, I think this will be the weakest defense he’s faced so far.
Bengals run offense (32nd) vs. Lions run defense (4th)
Oh boy.
Yes, the Bengals have faced some tough defenses, but this is by far the worst rushing chart I’ve ever witnessed in On Paper history. They have yet to clear 60 rushing yards in a game, and they’ve only managed over 3.0 yards per carry once. This is about as awful as a rushing attack gets, but let me throw more stats at you anyway:
- 2.6 yards per carry (32nd)
- -0.098 rush EPA (17th)
- 37.7 success rate (24th)
- 2.87 adjusted line yards (32nd)
I’m a little surprised to see an average rush EPA, but perhaps that is simply due to a low sample size. The Bengals have run the ball just 76 times this season, dead last in the NFL. They’re bad at it and they know it—and they’ve also found themselves trailing for the majority of the game. Oh, and their longest run of the season is 12 yards.
Most of the problems appear to be with the offensive front. They’re dead last in PFF run blocking grade (35.0—next closest is 49.4) and yards before contact per attempt (1.3).
Outside of an odd, bad performance against the Bears, the Lions’ run defense is back to their high standard. They shut down the respectable rushing games of the Packers and Ravens, while keeping a bad Browns team down.
What’s particularly impressive is Detroit’s short-yardage run defense. Per FTN Fantasy, the Lions’ run defense ranks first in the NFL in power success rate, holding offenses to conversions in short-yardage situations at just 27%. Only one other team (Commanders, 47%) is holding teams under a 50% success rate.
Overall, the Lions appear to be one of the best run defenses in football.
- 3.8 yards per carry (seventh)
- -0.228 rush EPA (fourth)
- 36.0% success rate (eighth)
- 4.31 adjusted line yards (16th)
Player to watch: DJ Reader. I don’t care what PFF grades (58.0 run defense grade) say, Reader is the key to most of what the Lions’ defense does in stopping the run. He is an immovable object, and he’s a big reason why MIKE linebacker Jack Campbell (91.1 run defense grade) is able to roam free and cause terror.
Advantage: Lions +3. If the Bengals are able to rush for 100 yards this week, it will be the biggest shock of the Lions’ season so far. Detroit has a massive advantage in the trenches here, and given their pride in stopping the run, I don’t see any way Cincinnati has success this week.
Last week’s prediction
Last week, I modestly predicted a 24-13 Lions victory over the Browns. I feel pretty darn good about the prediction, honestly, despite missing the final point differential by over 10. Alas, one of the weaknesses of On Paper is the lack of special teams analysis, but previous attempts to add them have been unsuccessful, as I found special teams analysis particularly unpredictive. Regardless, most matchups went in favor of what I was expecting, with the Lions’ pass defense and run offense slightly outperforming expectations.
In the comment section, we’re still looking for our first perfect prediction of the year, but there were plenty of close ones this week. No one closer than Datertots’ 33-10 and rbelieve’s/No Username’s 35-10 prediction.
Your prize this week is an NBA2k Anonymous skin:
Just in case you have any reason to play NBA2k anonymously, utilize this mask. No Username, you already have a head start, and maybe you should get into contact with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a significant +8 advantage. That is among the larger advantages you’ll see in these previews and for good reason. The Lions are just a much better team. They’re better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and they’re coached better. And, well, they don’t have a backup quarterback playing.
There is simply no excuse for the Lions to lose this week. The only way the Bengals keep this close is if:
- Chase and Higgins create several explosive plays vs. the Lions’ struggling cornerbacks
- Goff has a few inexplicable turnovers
I can’t even come up with a third reason. This should be a comfortable blowout. Lions 38, Bengals 17.
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