According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Detroit Lions are 10.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s currently the biggest line of Week 5 in the NFL, but the historical perspective on that line is almost unbelievable.
Per Stathead, the Lions have not been favored by that much on the road since… 1973, when the 1-2-1 Lions were also 10.5-point favorites over the 1-3 New Orleans Saints. Not to worry anybody, but the Archie Manning-led Saints actually ended up defeating Greg Landry’s Lions 20-13 that game.
In total, the Lions have been favored by 10.5 points or more 12 times in franchise history. In those games, the Lions are 9-2-1, but they have only covered the spread in four of those games.
While a 10.5-point spread in a game between a 2-2 Bengals team and a 3-1 Lions team may seem unreasonable, Cincinnati has been blown out in the past two weeks with Jake Browning as their starter in place of injured Joe Burrow. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Bengals 48-10 in Week 3, and the Denver Broncos defeated them 28-3 last week.
Meanwhile, the Lions have steamrolled two of their last three opponents. In Week 2, they handed the Chicago Bears a 52-21 beatdown, and last week it was the Browns who were at the mercy of a Lions 34-10 blowout.
Superstitious people may not like hearing this, but this game certainly has the makings of another potential lopsided game. Perhaps the Bengals will come out with some extra pride in hoping they don’t suffer their third blowout in a row. But it will take a big turnaround against a team that does not typically fall victim to big upsets. As a touchdown-or-more favorite, the Lions are 8-2 in the Dan Campbell era and have covered in six of those wins.
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