Week 4 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis

_{Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference . Thanks to , , Pro Football Focus and the for being awesome sources of weekly data.}

This was the first week the Colts’ offense had trouble moving the chains. Their 17 first downs were the fewest of the season, translating to a 65.4% Drive Success Rate — also a season low. Three turnovers certainly contributed, but overall there were a lot of stalled drives — something that hadn’t happened in the first three games.

TEAM TOTALS

The 26th-ranked Points per Drive matched the 26th-ranked DSR, underscoring the damage caused by turnovers as the Colts still managed the 14th-best yards per play and 14th best play success rate. Basically, they played a bit above league-average level except they gave the ball away three times.

After adjusting for opponent, the Colts’ offense still holds the 4th spot. That underscores how tough the Rams’ defense is, as a 26th-ranked PPD didn’t cost the Colts any ground in the rankings.

PASS TOTALS

The 25th-ranked EPA efficiency was heavily impacted by the turnovers, since those are big negative-value plays. In terms of Passing Success Rate — which isn’t skewed by those big-impact plays — the Colts ranked 16th. Not great, but much better than their EPA efficiency would indicate.

They finished 13th in net yards per play and 14th in play conversion rate, reinforcing the overall theme that the offense played reasonably well but was undone by a few costly mistakes.

On the season, Daniel Jones is still playing at a high level, ranking 4th in opponent-adjusted EPA efficiency.

RUSH TOTALS

This was definitely a pass-first game for the Colts, and the run game didn’t contribute much, going 0-for-4 on 3rd-down conversion attempts and accumulating less than 100 yards. They did manage one rushing TD and four first downs off of carries, but overall, the run game only ranks 19th after adjusting for game situation.

On the year, their 3rd-best raw weighted RSR drops to 8th after adjusting for opponent strength. Despite a below average game, rushing is a strength for this offense.

CONCLUSION

Without the turnovers, this game looks very different. It certainly wasn’t an epic collapse, and against a good defense the Colts still looked competent (well, not A.D. Mitchell). So this game does little to diminish my optimism for the rest of the season — at least for the offense. The defense is another story.

Without adjusting for opponent, the offense for the season is arguably second only to the Bills.

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