The Los Angeles Rams will face the San Francisco 49ers on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Coming into this one, the 49ers will be short-handed without Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall, but division games are always more difficult than they appear. The Rams certainly can’t overlook the 49ers and take them lightly or they’ll be in trouble. Here are my five keys to victory for the Rams against the 49ers.
What are your keys to beat the 49ers? Let us know in the comments.
For the Rams to win this game, they are going to need to find ways to get to Mac Jones. Utilizing blitzes is going to be the best way to do it. Jones has only completed 50 percent of his passes this season against the blitz. His -11.7 percent CPOE against the blitz is one of the worst numbers in the NFL.
Normally the left side of the 49ers offensive line isn’t where you would want to focus the pass rush as this is where Trent Williams resides. However, Williams has struggled this season. When the 49ers played a good pass rush against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, Williams allowed 10 pressures which is more than any game of his career since at least 2018. Outside of that game, his pressure rate of 8.9 percent from Week 2-4 would be the highest of his 49ers tenure. Additionally, Connor Colby has allowed an 11 percent pressure rate at left guard. The Rams do tend to overload their blitz packages and go heavy personnel to one side. In order to get to Jones, they’ll want to do the same thing on Thursday night.
Lean into 12 personnel
The Rams have utilized more 12 personnel this season, but against the Indianapolis Colts, they were back in 11 personnel at an 85 percent rate. As mentioned in last week’s keys to victory, that should have been part of the game plan based on the looks that the Colts would give them. While the Rams will be without Tyler Higbee, they should get back to more 12 personnel looks against the 49ers.
Ever since McVay arrived in Los Angeles, the 49ers have done a good job defending the Rams in 11 personnel. The Rams have averaged 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers in 11 personnel since 2017 compared to 6.1 yards per play against other defenses. Against 12 personnel last week, the 49ers matched with heavier packages, playing four or fewer defensive backs at an 84.2 percent rate. If the Rams utilize 12 personnel, they should be able to get favorable matchups on the backend in the secondary. Last week out of 12 personnel, the Jaguars were 6-for-8 and averaged 6.38 yards per attempt which was the ninth most in Week 4.
Contain Christian McCaffrey
While the 49ers have struggled with injuries this season, Christian McCaffrey has managed to stay healthy. On Thursday night, the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, and Juan Jennings. Simply put, McCaffrey will be the entire 49ers offense. That has already been the case this season as 42.3 percent of the 49ers’ offensive plays have utilized McCaffrey which is the highest overall usage share of any player in the NFL. McCaffrey has been targeted in the passing game 43 times this season which is 18 more than any other running back.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Rams have done a good job containing running backs. They shut down Saquon Barkley and then had success against Jonathan Taylor last week. Still, McCaffrey is a different type of player and will bring a unique test. The Rams are better off focusing on McCaffrey and allowing players like Jake Tonges, Kendrick Bourne, and Demarcus Robinson to beat them.
Attack downfield in passing game
The Rams’ offensive line has struggled at times this season which has limited the offense’s ability to throw down the field consistently. With that said, when they have, Matthew Stafford has been very good. The Rams quarterback has averaged 8.1 air yards per attempt and recorded a deep pass rate of 9.6 percent. Both of those are his highest since joining the Rams in 2021.
This is where the Rams should be able to exploit the 49ers in the passing game. On throws past the sticks, the 49ers have allowed 401 yards, four touchdowns, and a 117.7 passer rating. That’s the seventh-highest in the NFL. Safety Marque Sigle has allowed 16-of-18 targets against him in coverage and on downfield passes of 10+ air yards, he’s allowed 7-of-7 completions for 153 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers safeties tend to line up close to the line of scrimmage. This could be another game in which Tutu Atwell gets involved. Additionally, the 49ers will be relying on Upton Stout in the slot. Stout has struggled at times and the Rams should be able to get Nacua matched up on him in 11 personnel groupings.
Exploit 49ers young defensive line
Over the offseason, the 49ers worked to get younger on defense. They drafted Mykel Williams on the edge and Alfred Collins and CJ West on the interior. This is a younger defensive line with some inexperience. That has shown up in moments, especially when it comes to misdirection. The 49ers have allowed 0.04 EPA per rush against motion which is the 11th-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Rams have created the eighth-most EPA per rush when utilizing motion.
The 49ers have defended motion well in the passing game, but the Rams should be able to create some misdirection and get them out of position when running the ball. With Fred Warner, the 49ers still have a good linebacker group and are disciplined there, but there are some younger players on the front four that the Rams should be able to take advantage of in this game.
What are your keys to beat the 49ers? Let us know in the comments.
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