The Minnesota Vikings have completed roughly the first quarter of their season after falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 in Dublin, Ireland. They’ve gone 2-2 in what looked like the easiest part of their schedule at the beginning of the season and still looks that way now.
It has been a disappointing start to the Vikings’ season, as the Vikings have generally not played well in three of their first four games, particularly offensively. The one exception was the 48-10 blowout of the hapless and deflated Cincinnati Bengals at home in week three.
The central issue for the Vikings’ offense has been below average quarterback play. Offensive line injuries and inconsistent pass protection has been a contributing factor, but both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz have been responsible for a high percentage of pressures by holding the ball too long or failing to effectively move in the pocket to avoid pressure. And both have graded relatively poorly among starting quarterbacks when under pressure, and McCarthy even when operating from a clean pocket.
The Problems
The Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy two years ago in the first round and after a year on injured reserve opted to make him the starter, as is normal for first-round draft picks. But starting what is effectively a second-year rookie comes with growing pains and a learning curve, and McCarthy has been no exception. He had a rough start to his first game as a pro but still had the wherewithal to rally for the win. His second start was also rough but without the rally. And then he suffered a high ankle sprain. That led to newly acquired Carson Wentz becoming the starter. Wentz hadn’t generated much interest this offseason, hadn’t played much in the past two years, hadn’t practiced in the offseason, and had only a few weeks of backup QB reps before being named the starter for the Bengals game. But he did pretty well under the circumstances.
Quarterback Play
Neither J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz have performed particularly well overall, and certainly pressure rates play into that, but a good deal of that falls on the quarterback for not getting the ball out on time or failing to move effectively in the pocket to avoid pressure. Wentz and McCarthy rank second and third respectively in quarterback allowed pressure rate, which are pressures caused by the quarterback holding the ball too long or moving into pressure. Beyond that common element, there are other elements that have affected each of the two starting quarterback’s performance, which to some degree are expected.
J.J. McCarthy
For J.J. McCarthy, he is making his first starts in the league and is facing a learning curve when it comes to reading defenses, which causes him to hold the ball longer and results in more pressures. Opposing defensive coordinators are also doing what they can to confuse him with presnap looks and movement, while also blitzing him on almost a third of his dropbacks. McCarthy has a very low 28.9 PFF offensive grade when blitzed.
There isn’t really any particular area where McCarthy has shown particular strength relative to other starting quarterbacks in the league, but this is to be expected to some degree in a quarterback with only two starts. McCarthy’s adjusted completion percentage of 71.1%, which is a measure of accuracy, is near the lowest among starting quarterbacks. His average time to throw is among the highest at 3.08”. And while McCarthy has been subjected to a relatively high pressure rate, he has performed around league average in terms of overall PFF grade when under pressure, sandwiched between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes this season.
But what has held McCarthy back so far after two games is his performance from a clean pocket. His PFF grade when kept clean is about the same as when he’s under pressure and ranks second-to-last among starting quarterbacks. This is where improvement is needed and falls mostly on McCarthy to get it done. Kevin O’Connell may be able to help at the margin with his play calling, but McCarthy needs to climb his learning curve and be able to deliver at a high level when kept clean. This is what is expected from a first-round quarterback.
While all this paints a picture of a quarterback that is struggling and may continue to struggle, the latter isn’t necessarily the case and improvement should be expected. There are a few reasons for optimism.
First, McCarthy’s two starts were his first two starts, and many successful quarterbacks didn’t look too good in their first couple games. Secondly, the Vikings were to a certain extent in preseason form during these first two games, still struggling with assignments across the board. Justin Jefferson ran the wrong routes. Protection calls and execution were lacking. Christian Darrisaw was out. And McCarthy had very little time throwing to his available receivers in practice in advance of his two starts. Far and away his preferred target in training camp, Jordan Addison, was suspended. Add in some slips and drops and other mishaps, and it is easy to write-off some of McCarthy’s lackluster performance to these factors. The fact that McCarthy was able to rally to win his first start on the road in prime time was encouraging as well.
The biggest concern at this point about McCarthy is his durability. The MCL tear he suffered in preseason last season and the high ankle sprain in week two this season didn’t happen on particularly egregious plays in terms of contact. At this point he hasn’t been able to play more than two games without getting injured and obviously that has to change in a big way for him to have a successful career in the NFL.
Carson Wentz
Carson Wentz hasn’t played much the past couple years and didn’t practice with any team this offseason. He had backup reps prior to starting and so basically no rapport with receivers and limited time to learn the Vikings’ scheme and playbook before his first start. It wouldn’t have been too surprising if he looked a lot more rusty and under confident in his first two starts. But overall he looked fine in those regards.
The main issues with Wentz are issues that have followed him throughout his career- holding the ball too long at times and taking sacks, and a few too many turnover-worthy plays. I don’t blame him much for the interceptions against the Steelers, which were both off of tipped balls, but he was responsible for five of the nine sacks he’s had in two games and second-worst rate of 28.6% of all pressures were on Wentz rather than his pass protection. Wentz also grades notably worse than McCarthy when under pressure as well, according to PFF, so far this season.
But Wentz also grades notably higher than McCarthy when kept clean and has had the advantage now of having Jordan Addison back and a team that had worked out at least some of the early season errors. Wentz seems to struggle more passing from under-center at the moment and seems more comfortable operating out of shotgun.
With Carson Wentz at quarterback, the Vikings have moved away from under-center passing, as Wentz threw from the shotgun on 38 of his 46 pass attempts versus the Steelers. While part of that may be game situation-related, Wentz appears to be more effective operating from the shotgun. Only one of his 30 completions were from under-center against the Steelers, while he was sacked three times, had three inaccurate passes, and a throw away.
Offensive Line
The Vikings’ problems so far this season start with the offensive line injuries. In August, it looked like starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw was on track to start week one. That didn’t happen. Instead, Darrisaw missed the first two games of the season. That led to backup Justin Skule starting at left tackle, who did a good job last season over several starts for the Bucs. But that has not been the case with the Vikings this season as Skule has struggled in pass protection with one of the worst pass blocking efficiency ranking among tackles. That’s forced the Vikings offense to compensate by shifting protection or provide a chipper to help out. That’s also complicated the pass protection calls, especially in the face of blitzes and simulated blitzes. That, in turn, has resulted in communication breakdowns at times, and generally high quarterback pressure rates around 40%.
But it hasn’t just been Darrisaw who’s missed time. Starting center Ryan Kelly missed half of the week two loss against the Falcons with a concussion, all of week three, and half of the week four loss to the Steelers. Backup center Michael Jurgens has been serviceable as a blocker, but losing Kelly’s experience calling protections mid-game can be difficult. And week four against the Steelers, left guard Donovan Jackson was out after wrist surgery and right tackle Brian O’Neill missed most of the game with an MCL injury.
All that has led to disjointed performances by both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz, and a Vikings offense that has seldom been in rhythm or efficient. The offensive line issues, along with the absence of Jordan Addison for three games and being forced to start newly acquired Carson Wentz, has also compromised Kevin O’Connell’s play calling options.
Third Down
The Vikings have been off-the-charts bad on third down over their first four games. It’s not just that they rank 29th in third down conversion rate at just 30.6%, it’s also that they rank dead last by a significant margin in EPA/play on third down at -0.69. The second-worst team on third down has an EPA/play of -0.49. Last season the Vikings ranked 10th in EPA/play on third down at +0.01. Part of the poor performance on third down this season is because the Vikings have allowed a pressure-to-sack rate of 50% on third down, while the rest of the league has averaged 19.2%. Lastly, the Vikings rank second in three-and-out rate in the league after four weeks.
Run Defense
The Vikings’ defense has been more impactful and efficient than their offense, but this iteration of Brian Flores’ defense has been more suited to playing with the lead, and more susceptible to the run. The Vikings struggled to stop the Falcons and the Steelers run game, who played with the lead most of the game.
The big additions to the Vikings interior defensive line- Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen- have made a dramatic increase in quarterback pressures but are also the Vikings’ two lowest PFF graded defenders in run defense after four games. Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. has also had a slow start in run defense, which he has excelled at in previous seasons. Some of that may be a difference in assignments given the strengths of the defensive tackles, but when playing from behind, someone has to step up in run defense.
The Positives
The biggest positives for the Vikings so far this season have been the overall performance of both their defense and special teams.
League-Leading Defense
The Vikings are the top defense in the league in EPA/play allowed at -0.22 according to Next Gen Stats (-0.142 according to rbsdm.com). The Vikings’ pass defense ranks #1 by a wide margin in EPA/play allowed at -0.49 according to Next Gen Stats (-0.272 according to rbsdm.com).
The Vikings’ defense has benefitted from the performance of new acquisition Isaiah Rodgers at cornerback, improved performance from Josh Metellus as slot corner, and a vastly improved pressure rate from the interior defensive line. Additionally, Eric Wilson has done a good job filling in for the injured Blake Cashman, Jay Ward has done well in relief of an injured Harrison Smith, who has only played 39 snaps so far this season.
In coverage, according to Football Insights above, the Vikings are playing a lot more Cover-6 than Cover-4 compared to last season, when they played just 5% of snaps in Cover-6 and 18% in Cover-4. That coincides with Brian Flores having Isaiah Rodgers play on the boundary (short) side of the field the vast majority of snaps and Byron Murphy Jr. playing on the wider field side of the ball based on which hashmark the ball is placed. They are also playing a little less man coverage than last season, which is a bit of a surprise. But it’s been effective.
Overall, the Vikings’ defense ranks 6th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed (33.3%), 1st in 4th down conversion rate allowed (0%), and 6th in red zone TD rate allowed (46.2%), 9th in points allowed and 7th in yards allowed.
Special Teams
The Vikings have also done well on special teams so far this season. Will the Thrill Reichard has been perfect so far this season in both field goal and extra point attempts, Ryan Wright has been good so far punting, to the extent that his net yards per punt of 44.1 ranks tied for 4th best in the league. Myles Price has been an improvement as punt returner over last season as well, with a league-high 14 punt returns averaging 11.1 yards. His 155 total punt return yards ranks 5th among all punt returners this season.
In DVOA terms, the Vikings rank 6th in special teams DVOA and in PFF terms the Vikings rank tied for 3rd in team PFF special teams grade at 90.2. Special teams have been a negative for the Vikings the past couple seasons as the Vikings ranked 27th in special teams DVOA last season and 30th in 2023.
Among individual special team players, Isaiah Rodgers leads all players on special teams PFF grade (91.1) based largely on his blocked field goal (something he’s done in the past as well), followed by Eric Wilson (85.6) and Jeff Okudah (82.2). Among core special teamers, Tai Felton, Andrew DePaola, Bo Richter and Chaz Chambliss have graded well too.
Player of the Quarter: Isaiah Rodgers
Isaiah Rodgers accounted for a net of 17 points for the Vikings with his pick-six and fumble return for a touchdown, and blocked field goal- more points than any other player which is particularly impressive for a defensive player. His performance against the Bengals resulted in a perfect game grade by PFF. But beyond the turnovers, Rodgers has also been very good in coverage. He’s allowed just a 56.3% completion rate in his coverage for 74 total receiving yards and a 42.2 passer rating when targeted. He also forced two fumbles, returning one for a touchdown.
But in addition to Rodgers, there have been some other standouts for the Vikings over the first quarter of the season. Those include running back Jordan Mason, who has made the absence of Aaron Jones a non-factor so far. Eric Wilson has also done a good job filling in for Blake Cashman, in addition to being the best core special teamer for the Vikings so far. In fact, when Cashman returns from injury, there is a good case to be made that Ivan Pace Jr. should get benched rather than Wilson. Wilson has outperformed Pace in both run defense and coverage since replacing Cashman. Jalen Redmond also gets high marks and has outperformed his better known linemates in Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen in overall PFF grade- leading both in sacks and keeping pace with both in total quarterback pressures while performing better against the run.
The Vikings will look to manage a win over the Browns in London as they limp into their bye week, which now looks to have come at a fortuitous time given all the injuries. And while the Vikings have suffered disappointing losses to the Falcons and Steelers and generally haven’t looked particularly sharp in three of their first four games, there is reason for some optimism going forward.
The biggest reason is that the Vikings should be getting a lot of starters back from injury after the bye week. Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Brian O’Neill, Aaron Jones, and J.J. McCarthy in particular. Additionally, hopefully Harrison Smith will be able to ramp up to his normal full-time role, rather than being a sub-package player as he is currently.
The Vikings’ defense has been the best in the league in EPA/allowed without Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Harrison Smith on the field much at all over the first four games. What they’re able to do with all three of them back in action is reason for optimism.
Secondly, whether it’s Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, the Vikings getting their offensive linemen back will be helpful, and the recent addition of Jordan Addison to the wide receiver group made a huge difference in the passing game for the Vikings’ offense. We won’t see McCarthy back at quarterback until after the bye week, but whether it’s the first game back against the Eagles or later may depend both on Wentz’ performance and how ready McCarthy looks in practice. At this point Wentz has done reasonably well as a backup but not so well that it’s worth further derailing McCarthy’s development.
On that score it’s too bad McCarthy has missed two (soon to be three) games of experience and development, particularly early on. There is no way for McCarthy to make up for not playing in those games in terms of development, just as there was little he could do to develop last season without playing. But the Vikings have made the investment and McCarthy and now need to continue his development as soon as possible. That might possibly lead to more growing pains than with Carson Wentz at quarterback but sitting McCarthy when he’s healthy does nothing to help his confidence. The Vikings need to get McCarthy back out there and developing and hope their defense can make up for any shortfalls.
But there is also reason that when McCarthy does get back out there, he’ll be better than he was in his first two games. First, he has those two game experiences under his belt, and that helps. Second, he has Jordan Addison back and he was McCarthy’s favorite receiver in training camp, so he has a good connection with Addison- more so than he had with Jefferson in his first two games. Third, having Darrisaw back helps and hopefully the rest of the offensive line starters as well. McCarthy will need to learn to get the ball out faster regardless, and be more accurate, but the adjustments that Kevin O’Connell has made with Carson Wentz at quarterback may also help McCarthy as well.
The main difficulty ahead for the Vikings after their bye week is their strength of schedule. They face the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens in the first month after their bye week. Managing a win against the Browns and going at least 2-2 in the first four games after their bye week could be enough to keep them competitive for a playoff spot if they manage to stay healthy after getting starters back and McCarthy is able to develop as expected. The Vikings have a top roster when healthy but they need more from the quarterback position.
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