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Week 4 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 5. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3 or -3.5) [Total: 47.5]

Many books had the foresight to open this line at 3.5 points, but if you’re quick, you may still be able to get this game at a key 3. Regardless, the 3.5-point margin still holds a solid chance of moving toward the Rams, given the growing list of injuries on the 49ers’ sideline and Los Angeles’ cover at home this past week despite a late deficit.

After dealing with a knee injury at practice this week, 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall came down hard on the sideline and was eventually forced to shut it down for the day after reportedly feeling “pain and instability” in his knee. With the 49ers heading to Los Angeles on a short week, the likelihood of Pearsall being 100% is slim. 

On the defensive side, the loss of Nick Bosa left the 49ers severely lacking in the pass rush. The team totaled just a pair of pressures in a loss to the Jaguars in Week 4. If San Francisco can’t generate pressure against Matthew Stafford, he will pick them apart. His 91.5 PFF passing grade when left unpressured ranks second in the NFL. 

The Rams are 2-0 against the spread at home this season after taking down a strong Colts team with a late comeback. Los Angeles jumped on mistakes from Daniel Jones, forcing him into three turnover-worthy plays and coming away with a pair of interceptions — Jones’ first turnovers of the year. This defense will have more opportunities to add to its takeaway numbers, considering the 49ers are tied for the most turnovers (eight) in the NFL through Week 4.

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New York Giants (-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints [Total: 41.5]

The Giants dominated the Los Angeles Chargers‘ front with a 56.3% pass-rush win rate en route to an upset win in Week 4. Perhaps most encouraging was rookie first-rounder Abdul Carter, who notched an elite 92.1 PFF overall grade. On the offensive side, rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, in his first start, energized New York’s run game to 4.5 yards per carry. While the offense was by no means dominant, it was an encouraging sign for the team. The game did not come without cost, though, as star wide receiver Malik Nabers went down with an ACL injury. 

The Saints hung around in Buffalo in Week 4, leaning on the ground game as the team ran for close to 150 yards. That will be the path to beating the Giants, who have struggled in run defense. But quarterback Spencer Rattler is also prone to sacks (10% sack rate), and New York’s front will likely overwhelm his offensive line.

The Giants have a greater chance to win through multiple dimensions with Dart and a terrific defensive front, whereas the Saints have a struggling quarterback, offensive line and defense. These teams are a tier apart and shouldn’t be in a 50-50 game.