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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 4, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Carson Wentz gets the better of the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ coverage

One of the more surprising developments this season has been the Steelers’ defensive struggles. Despite facing a relatively soft slate of opposing quarterbacks, Pittsburgh ranks fifth-worst in yards allowed per attempt faced and 10th-worst in EPA allowed per dropback.

And while the pass rush has remained above average, the secondary has faltered, producing the third-highest rate of coverage mistakes forced in the NFL.

While the sample size for Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz is admittedly small, two key factors make this spot intriguing: first, the likelihood of the Steelers generating “perfect coverage” is quite low; and second, the upgrade from JJ McCarthy to Wentz should significantly impact both quarterback production and Minnesota’s overall pass volume.

This is a team that, under Kevin O’Connell, has consistently ranked among the NFL’s most pass-heavy. Facing a Steelers defense that plays man coverage at a high rate but lacks the personnel to contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison — and one that forces coverage mistakes at one of the highest rates in the league — I’m inclined to bet on the Vikings’ passing attack hitting its ceiling in this matchup.

SGP Build: 27-1 on DraftKings

• QB Carson Wentz: 300+ passing yards
• QB Carson Wentz: 34+ attempts
• Minnesota Vikings: -2.5

Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ pass-funnel defense

The Buccaneers have shown classic pass‑funnel tendencies through the first few weeks, with the largest gap in success rate between run and pass and the third-largest gap in EPA. In short, it’s much easier to throw against them than to run.

Now they face the Eagles, who — after being the NFL’s leading run‑first team — have gradually tilted toward the pass in recent weeks. On early downs, Philadelphia is carrying a +3% Pass Rate Over Expected (though the tush‑push skews the full numbers).

One under‑the-radar issue for the Eagles: their pass protection. Historically, they’ve excelled in Perfectly Blocked Pass Rate (around 65%), but so far this season, that number has dropped closer to 55%.

That decline could become significant given this matchup.

Since the start of last season, Jalen Hurts has been highly effective when given clean protection. Tampa Bay has found some success blitzing — an approach Hurts has historically handled well — but the Bucs have struggled to win one-on-one matchups or force pass protection breakdowns. They currently rank in the bottom 10 in forced pass-blocking mistakes.

If Philadelphia’s “perfectly blocked” pass rate regresses toward its typical standard, the passing outcomes for this offense are due for a positive correction.

And with the Eagles shifting away from their extreme run-heavy identity toward a more balanced approach, Hurts could be in line for increased passing volume and improved efficiency against a Buccaneers defense built to invite the pass, but lacking the pass rush to disrupt it.

SGP Build: 65-1 on DraftKings

• QB Jalen Hurts: 32+ attempts
• QB Jalen Hurts: 290+ passing yards
• Philadelphia Eagles: -5.5 

Atlanta Falcons WR Darnell Mooney dominates Washington’s single coverage

Washington has consistently deployed single coverage, finishing top-five in single-coverage rate last season and remaining in the top 10 early in 2025.

While the production hasn’t followed yet, Darnell Mooney has seen an outsized share of the passing work against single coverage, commanding a 40% target share in those situations through the first three weeks.

The chart above from Joseph Bryan highlights wide receivers primed for breakout performances based on opportunity metrics — specifically, target share and air-yard share. Darnell Mooney and Drake London both stand out as candidates for positive regression.

Mooney, in particular, has a favorable matchup against Washington’s Mike Sainristil, who ranks in the bottom 10 in separation prevented. With a significant share of team targets and air yards already in hand, Mooney is well-positioned for an efficient day.

Given Washington’s unexpectedly stout run defense, and assuming Penix can connect with Mooney on vertical concepts, there’s a realistic path — more than the market likely expects — for Mooney to help drive a productive passing performance.

SGP Build: 40-1 on DraftKings

• WR Darnell Mooney: 100+ receiving yards
• WR Darnell Mooney: Anytime TD
• QB Michael Penix Jr.: 300+ passing yards