College Football Week 5 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the biggest games
By
Max Chadwick
and
Dalton Wasserman
- Oregon–Penn State: Two top-10 teams in the Ducks and Nittany Lions square off in the biggest game of Week 5.
- Three other games between ranked teams: There are three other games between ranked teams in Week 5 in LSU–Ole Miss, Alabama–Georgia and USC–Illinois.
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Estimated Reading Time: 35 minutes
While Week 4 of the college football season produced plenty of notable storylines, it pales in comparison to what’s in store this weekend.
Week 5 features four games between ranked teams, the most we’ve had all season. There are plenty of other juicy matchups as well, which is why we’re previewing 12 games for the first time all season.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for those dozen games in Week 5.
Storyline to know: Two of the Big 12 favorites square off
Friday night’s game between TCU and Arizona State pits two of the favorites to win the Big 12 against each other. The Sun Devils are currently second in odds (+550) to win the conference according to DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Horned Frogs are third (+600).
TCU is off to its first 3-0 start since the 2022 season, when it made it all the way to the National Championship Game. Arizona State, meanwhile, is 3-1 and is trying to rejoin the top-25 with a win in this game.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Dalton): TCU’s wide receivers vs. Arizona State’s cornerbacks
The Horned Frogs’ wide receivers have been excellent so far this season, as Josh Hoover is throwing the ball well early on. That unit currently ranks 15th in the nation in receiving grade and features three solid playmakers.
Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer leads the team with 17 receptions and has earned a solid 74.8 receiving grade thus far. Fellow outside receiver Eric McAlister is coming off a huge game against SMU in which he racked up 254 yards and three touchdowns, leading to an 82.2 receiving grade. Lastly, Houston transfer Joseph Manjack IV is a capable slot threat who has earned a 67.2 receiving grade through the team’s first three games.
The Sun Devils counter with a cornerback unit that ranks 13th in the FBS in coverage grade. The star is outside cornerback Keith Abney II, whose 84.4 receiving grade ranks sixth in the FBS. Javan Robinson has struggled so far opposite Abney on the outside but earned a 68.0 coverage grade last season. Slot cornerback Kyndrich Breedlove has earned a solid 68.9 coverage grade through four games and was Arizona State’s highest-graded defensive player last week against Baylor.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Max): How often will TCU blitz Sam Leavitt?
TCU has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 37.7% of dropbacks this season, a top-25 rate in the country. And yet, the Horned Frogs are only 102nd in team pass-rush grade (64.7). That’s mainly because TCU sends a blitz at the 11th-highest rate in college football at 53.8%.
While Sam Leavitt has been up and down this season, he’s actually been very strong under pressure and when defenses send five or more rushers.
Sam Leavitt grades by situation
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Pressured | 78.2 (8th) |
| Blitzed | 82.1 (23rd) |
| Kept Clean | 74.9 (92nd) |
| Not Blitzed | 71.5 (71st) |
A big part of that ability to win against pressure comes from his legs. Leavitt leads all Power Four quarterbacks with a 90.5 rushing grade. His backyard, gunslinger playstyle doesn’t work within structure, but he can make magic happen outside of it. If TCU sends blitzes Leavitt’s way as often as it has this season, that may play into the hands of the redshirt sophomore.
Predictions
Max: Arizona State 35, TCU 31
In a game that could turn into a shootout, Leavitt outduels Hoover and helps the Sun Devils re-emerge into the top 25.
Dalton: Arizona State 31, TCU 28
This is likely to be a high-scoring game determined by which team gets to play their style of football. Arizona State has found momentum in its run game, which should allow it to control the pace at home.
Storyline to know: Two Big Ten teams trying to prove their legitimacies
The first-ranked matchup of Week 5 will pit two Big Ten teams that are trying to prove that they’re legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.
USC is off to a 4-0 start and has won every game by an average of 32 points. Still, the Trojans still haven’t beaten a top-60 team in PFF’s power rankings. Illinois, meanwhile, is 3-1 and is coming off an embarrassing 63-10 loss to No. 19 Indiana, a result that caused the Fighting Illini to tumble 14 spots down in the AP poll.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Max): USC’s red-hot passing game against an Illinois pass-defense looking to bounce back
After a down year by his standards, USC head coach Lincoln Riley is back to producing one of the most efficient passing attacks in college football. The Trojans are averaging 0.709 EPA per pass, easily the best in the entire FBS. USC is second in yards per pass (11.6), 17th in passing grade (84.7), first in receiving grade (84.5) and 10th in pass-blocking grade (82.6).
Illinois’ pass defense had been performing at an admirable level up until this past weekend, when Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza picked it apart. The Fighting Illini gave up 0.788 EPA per pass in the loss, their worst since the 2017 season. Mendoza and the Hoosiers were able to find quick man-coverage beaters since Illinois runs man coverage at the third-highest rate in the country (51%) and blitzes at the second-highest rate in the Power Four (57.4%). Riley would be wise to employ a similar game plan this week with his quarterback, Jayden Maiava.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Dalton): Will Illinois’ struggles in pass protection continue?
As it has been over the past couple of years, Illinois’ pass protection has struggled through the team’s first four games.
Examining their games against Duke and Indiana in particular, the Fighting Illini earned just a 42.8 pass-blocking grade across those two games. They allowed six sacks across those two contests and have had particular issues with blitzes. In those two games, Illinois allowed a whopping 53.3% pressure rate when blitzed.
Luke Altmyer has done a nice job of trying to mitigate that pressure with his quick release, but his offensive line will need to be better against a USC squad that currently ranks 37th in the nation in pass-rush grade. Look for Trojans edge defenders Anthony Lucas and Kameryn Fountain to have a big impact on the outcome of this game.
Predictions
In a game that could turn into a shootout, I trust Riley’s offense to pull it out in the end.
USC’s high-flying offense could carry them to another win, especially if wide receiver Makai Lemon can take advantage of the absence of star nickelback Xavier Scott.
Storyline to know: Two programs with their backs against the wall
After starting 1-2 on the season, Notre Dame essentially needs to win its final nine games to even have a shot at making the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is facing increased pressure as his Razorbacks are off to a 2-2 start to their season. Arkansas could’ve been 4-0 but had two fumbles on potential game-winning drives against Ole Miss and Memphis, the latter of which was a game that the Razorbacks led by 18 points at one point.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Notre Dame’s run game against Arkansas’ run defense
After hardly running the ball in its Week 1 loss to Miami, Notre Dame has gotten back to its roots in the past couple of weeks. The Fighting Irish have run the ball on 57.8% of their plays since Week 3, the ninth-highest rate in the Power Four. Running back Jeremiyah Love is starting to show why he entered the year as our No. 1 running back in the country with 260 rushing yards and 12 forced missed tackles in the last two weeks, each the third most in the Power Four. His backup, Jadarian Price, is 25th in that same group with 142 rushing yards since Week 3.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is just 70th in run-defense grade so far (79.1) and especially struggled this past weekend against Memphis. The Tigers ran for 313 yards in the win, averaging 8.2 yards per carry with 3.9 coming before contact. Running back Sutton Smith ran for 147 yards on just 12 attempts, while quarterback Brendon Lewis ran for 122 yards on 14 carries. The one thing that could be working in Arkansas’ advantage in this game is the fact that it won’t need to worry about Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr beating the Razorbacks with his legs as much as Lewis or Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss did. Still, containing Love and Price is still a tall task for any defense, especially one that’s shown as many warts as Arkansas has the past couple of weeks.
Matchup to watch when Arkansas has the ball (Dalton): Taylen Green vs. Notre Dame’s struggling coverage unit
Notre Dame’s elite coverage unit was arguably the biggest reason for their run to the national championship game last season. The Fighting Irish ranked third in the nation in coverage grade, while their suffocating man coverage became a staple in their defense.
This season, under new defensive coordinator Chris Ash, the Fighting Irish haven’t been nearly as effective in pass defense. They currently rank just 114th in the FBS in coverage grade. They also rank among the 25 worst teams in yards per attempt allowed and explosive pass rate allowed.
Arkansas, led by star quarterback Taylen Green, currently leads the FBS with a 24.3% explosive pass rate. Green’s 90.1 PFF grade currently places him seventh among qualified quarterbacks. The Fighting Irish could be in for a battle on defense, particularly if star cornerback Leonard Moore misses another game due to injury.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 37, Arkansas 31
Notre Dame’s offense dominates an Arkansas defense that is struggling to come up with any stops right now. The Fighting Irish hand the Razorbacks their third-straight loss despite Taylen Green’s best efforts.
Dalton: Notre Dame 30, Arkansas 27
This game could be a shootout, but CJ Carr, Jeremiyah Love and the Notre Dame offense make just enough plays to escape Fayetteville with a win.
No. 4 LSU Tigers at No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (3:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: Two SEC teams looking to make a statement
LSU and Ole Miss will square off on Saturday as two undefeated SEC teams that are ranked in the top-15. While both are off to scorching hot starts, neither the Tigers nor the Rebels are among the three favorites to win the conference, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The winner of this game could firmly establish themselves in that group.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss get consistent pressure on Garrett Nussmeier?
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is one of the favorites to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and one of the biggest reasons why is how deadly he is when given time in the pocket.
Garrett Nussmeier since 2024
| Situation | Passing Grade (FBS rank) | Passing Yards | Big-Time Throws |
| Kept Clean | 90.3(21st) | 4,024 (2nd) | 27 (2nd) |
| Not Blitzed | 83.0(25th) | 3,343 (2nd) | 25 (1st) |
The redshirt senior is just 40th in passing grade under pressure this year (59.5) and 40th when he’s blitzed (73.2).
Ole Miss is currently 23rd in pressure rate this season (37.9%), even though it’s only 95th in blitz rate (32.1%). The Rebels’ secondary has helped produce a lot of coverage pressures, though, as it has the sixth-most pressures in the country after three seconds. Considering Nussmeier gets rid of the football in 2.51 seconds on average, Ole Miss needs to win up front much quicker in order to bother Nussmeier.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Will Trinidad Chambliss start, and can he stay hot versus LSU’s suffocating secondary?
Trinidad Chambliss has stepped into the starting quarterback role over the Rebels’ past two games in the wake of Austin Simmons’ injury troubles. Chambliss has simply played spectacular football while bringing new dimensions to Lane Kiffin’s offense.
Chambliss’ 90.0 PFF grade over the past two weeks ranks 10th among qualified quarterbacks. The biggest difference between Chambliss and Simmons has been Chambliss’ ability to win late in plays. When his dropbacks have extended to or beyond 2.5 seconds, Chambliss has earned an outstanding 91.7 passing grade while averaging 16.6 yards per attempt. Simmons has recorded a lowly 48.0 passing grade when his dropbacks passed the 2.5-second mark this season.
Chambliss’ calm demeanor late in dropbacks and athleticism, which brings production as a scrambler and in the designed run game, give the Rebels their best chance to win this game.
Predictions
The Rebels struggle to get pressure quick enough on Nussmeier, and Blake Baker’s defense finds enough answers to contain the red-hot Trinidad Chambliss for the Tigers to secure a massive top-15 victory.
Ole Miss’ offense has been rolling with Chambliss at the helm. This game likely comes down to his ability to stay calm against the Tigers’ blitz packages. If he can do that, the Rebels can pull off a massive home victory.
Storyline to know: Ohio State begins its Big Ten slate
The top-ranked Buckeyes get their conference slate underway this week with their first road game of the season against an undefeated Washington squad. The defending national champs are coming off a bye week and are off to a 3-0 start after beating previous No. 1 Texas, Grambling State and Ohio. The Huskies, meanwhile, have beaten Colorado State, UC Davis and Washington State for their own 3-0 start. Washington also hasn’t lost a home game since the end of the 2021 season.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Dalton): Will Julian Sayin maintain his surgical precision down the middle of the field?
First-year starter Julian Sayin has been nothing short of spectacular in his first three starts for Ohio State. After a somewhat conservative outing in Week 1 against Texas, Sayin tore Grambling State and Ohio to shreds and currently ranks fifth in the FBS with a 90.0 passing grade.
Sayin’s most valuable trait so far has been his accuracy. His 86.8% adjusted completion rate leads all qualified quarterbacks, as does his 82.3% accurate throw rate. He’s thrown the ball extremely well down the middle of the field. Sayin’s 93.0 passing grade and 89.5% completion rate between the numbers both lead all qualified Power Four passers.
Matchup to watch when Washington has the ball (Max): Can the Buckeyes contain one of the most electric backfields in college football?
Washington fields the most efficient offense in college football in terms of EPA per play (0.494). While the Huskies are second in EPA per pass, their offensive identity comes from their run game. Washington is also second in EPA per run, leads the Power Four with a 92.1 rushing grade and is fourth in the country with an 80.1 run-blocking grade. Jonah Coleman is showing why he was a top-five running back in the country for PFF entering the season, placing seventh in the FBS with an 88.8 PFF grade and is seventh in the Power Four with 261 yards after contact. He’s also second among Power Four backs with 150 receiving yards. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is sixth among FBS quarterbacks with an 83.1 rushing grade, while his 13 explosive runs are tied for third.
Ohio State is currently tied for 17th in the country with a 91.1 rushing grade and has done an outstanding job with its run fits, as it’s also 10th in yards before contact per attempt allowed (0.6). The Buckeyes have yet to allow a quarterback to run for 40 yards on them this season, and they’ve faced very mobile signal-callers like Texas’ Arch Manning and Ohio’s Parker Navarro.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 38, Washington 24
Washington’s defense has shown some issues through three games, even though it hasn’t faced a Power Four opponent yet. Ohio State exposes those weaknesses while slowing down the Huskies’ ground game just enough.
Dalton: Ohio State 31, Washington 20
Washington will have to control the pace of this game with their rushing attack if it wants to win. In the end, Sayin is playing too well and Ohio State has too many weapons for the Huskies to handle.
Auburn Tigers at No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (3:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Auburn tries to bounce back from a controversial loss
Auburn suffered its first loss of the season this past weekend at the hands of No. 11 Oklahoma by a final score of 24-17, and it came with plenty of controversy. Multiple questionable calls went the Sooners’ way in the game, so much so that the SEC released an official statement that one of Oklahoma’s touchdowns should never have been counted.
The Tigers will try to bounce back this week on the road against a top-10 opponent in Texas A&M, which is off to a 3-0 start and is coming off its bye week following a thrilling victory over eighth-ranked Notre Dame.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Max): Can Texas A&M force Jackson Arnold to win as a passer?
Auburn’s offense is centered around its ability to run the football. The Tigers are 22nd in yards per attempt (6.3), 30th in rushing grade (84.4) and 34th in run-blocking grade (68.1). Running back Jeremiah Cobb is in the top-10 of the Power Four in both rushing yards and forced missed tackles, while quarterback Jackson Arnold is fourth in rushing yards and has the most forced missed tackles in that same group.
Arnold has been far less effective as a passer, as he’s 76th in passing grade right now (70.7). His pocket presence has also been a significant issue, as 51.5% of the pressures he’s been under have turned into sacks this year, the highest rate in the FBS. The Tigers are also just 96th in team receiving grade despite featuring a couple of stars in Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. In the one game where Auburn didn’t run for at least 195 yards (against Oklahoma), the Tigers scored just 17 points and ended up with their only loss of the season.
Texas A&M’s run defense has been a bit shaky this year, placing 100th in yards allowed per attempt so far (5.1). The Aggies have struggled immensely in bringing down ball carriers, posting the second-worst tackling grade in the Power Four while ranking 105th nationally with a 17% missed tackle rate on runs.
Texas A&M needs to focus on slowing down Auburn’s rushing attack in order to emerge victorious on Saturday.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Texas A&M’s wide receivers vs. Auburn’s secondary
While Texas A&M is theoretically a run-first offense with multiple backfield threats, its dynamic pair of wide receivers, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, could pose the biggest threat to a vulnerable Auburn secondary.
Craver currently ranks second in the FBS with a 92.0 receiving grade and 274 yards after catch. While he has wreaked havoc in the slot, his running mate, Concepcion, has played well on the outside. Concepcion has earned a solid 78.7 receiving grade and ranks 11th in the nation with a 95.0 intermediate receiving grade.
Meanwhile, Auburn has struggled to contain opponents in the passing game. Its 57.4 team coverage grade ranks among the 15 worst in the nation. The Tigers have also allowed 27 explosive pass plays this season, third-most in the Power Four behind SMU and North Carolina State. They’ll need to be much better than that in order to slow down the Aggies’ explosive receiving duo.
Predictions
This game could come down to who runs the football better. Auburn’s run defense has been spectacular this season, while Texas A&M’s has been worrisome. The Tigers bounce back from their loss to Oklahoma with a big road upset.
Dalton: Texas A&M 27, Auburn 24
Marcel Reed leans on Mario Craver and KC Concepcion in the biggest moments of this game, which allows the Aggies to get a big home win over a tough opponent.
Storyline to know: Indiana with another opportunity to make a statement
Indiana was the Cinderella story of college football last year, making the College Football Playoff and finishing with an 11-2 record in one of the best seasons in school history.
Despite returning so much talent from that team, there were still plenty of doubts that the Hoosiers could do it again as they entered the year just No. 20 in the preseason AP poll. Indiana proved it’s a program to take seriously by demolishing ninth-ranked Illinois this past Saturday, 63-10. The Hoosiers have another big game this week in their first road game at Iowa, a team that’s currently 3-1 with its only blemish being a three-point loss to No. 14 Iowa State.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Dalton): Fernando Mendoza’s intermediate passing vs. Iowa’s stingy pass defense
Fernando Mendoza has gotten off to a red-hot start as Indiana’s quarterback. His ability to throw the ball into intermediate windows has been a natural fit in the Hoosiers’ offense.
Mendoza currently ranks third in the FBS with a 93.6 passing grade on throws in the 10-19-yard range. He also leads the nation with seven touchdown passes in the intermediate range. That should sound familiar to Hoosiers fans, as Kurtis Rourke ranked ninth and first, respectively, in those categories last season.
That production in the intermediate area of the field should help Mendoza succeed against Iowa’s stingy zone defenses that specialize in deterring quarterbacks from taking deep shots downfield.
Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Max): Iowa’s offensive line against Indiana’s defensive line
While it’s still too early to make any declarations for any college football awards, it’s hard not to view Iowa as the favorite for the Joe Moore Award, given out to the best offensive line in the country. The Hawkeyes’ front five has a 97.1 grade as a unit so far, nearly 11 points higher than any other offensive line. Iowa’s offensive line leads the way with a 94.1 pass-blocking grade and a 96.4 run-blocking grade.
Iowa’s offensive line this season
| Name | Position | PFF Grade (FBS rank) |
| Trevor Lauck | LT | 87.4 (1st) |
| Beau Stephens | LG | 89.3 (1st) |
| Logan Jones | C | 84.5 (1st) |
| Kade Pieper | RG | 88.7 (1st) |
| Gennings Dunker | RT | 87.4 (2nd) |
Iowa‘s offensive line will be tested this week against an Indiana defense that’s currently ninth in run-defense grade (92.5) and 10th in pass-rush grade (85.4). The Hoosiers are 21st in pressure rate (38.7%) and only surrendered 49 rushing yards this past week against Illinois.
Predictions
It won’t be as big a beatdown as the Illinois game was, but Indiana still beats Iowa pretty comfortably thanks to a lights-out performance from its defense.
This could be a defensive slugfest, but Indiana is the more two-dimensional offensive team, and it should find a way to score enough points to earn a road victory.
Storyline to know: Can Mississippi State take down its second top-15 foe at home?
After going 2-10 last season, Mississippi State has already doubled its win total this year. The Bulldogs have their first 4-0 start since 2014, back when Dak Prescott was their quarterback.
One of their four wins this season came over No. 12 Arizona State. Mississippi State has an opportunity for another top-15 home upset this week against No. 15 Tennessee.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Dalton): Can Mississippi State maintain its improvement in coverage?
Mississippi State earned the second-worst coverage grade in the FBS last season. Their inability to prevent explosive plays and make stops was their undoing on a weekly basis. So far this season, the Bulldogs have changed the narrative that their defense isn’t good enough to win games.
As a team, the Bulldogs currently rank among the ten best teams in the nation in coverage grade, yards per attempt allowed and explosive play rate allowed. That should aid them against a Tennessee offense known for taking deep shots under Josh Heupel.
If this improvement in coverage is sustainable, then Tennessee may be wise to ride its talented running back unit to victory, considering the Bulldogs still rank just 56th in the nation in run defense grade.
Matchup to watch when Mississippi State has the ball (Max): Mississippi State’s run game against Tennessee’s run defense
Mississippi State’s run game has been very effective so far, placing fifth in EPA per run and 15th in team rushing grade (87.0). Running back Fluff Bothwell is fourth among SEC running backs with an 83.9 PFF grade, while Davon Booth isn’t too far behind with a 77.7 mark. The Bulldogs’ run game also sets up the pass game in head coach Jeff Lebby’s offense, as Mississippi State is fifth in the conference with a 40.5% play-action rate this year.
Tennessee’s run defense has been pretty stout so far, allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt (18th). If the Volunteers can win on early downs and make quarterback Blake Shapen beat them without play action, that could hamstring the Bulldogs offensively.
Predictions
Max: Tennessee 37, Mississippi State 24
Mississippi State’s defense struggles to come up with many stops against a red-hot Tennessee offense and suffers its first loss of the season.
Dalton: Tennessee 34, Mississippi State 27
Mississippi State is much improved from last season, but Tennessee’s ability to run the ball and Joey Aguilar’s willingness to work underneath should serve the Volunteers well.
Storyline to know: A pair of undefeated Big 12 teams face off
Saturday night’s game between No. 14 Iowa State and Arizona pits two of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12. The Cyclones are off to their second 4-0 start in a row and have wins over No. 17 Kansas State and Iowa. The Wildcats are 3-0 for the first time in a decade and also have a win over Kansas State. Since that was a previously scheduled nonconference game, this will mark Arizona’s first Big 12 game.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Will Arizona maintain its newfound offensive balance?
After running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt was ruled ineligible last season, Arizona lacked any semblance of offensive balance and became too reliant on Noah Fifita and eventual first-round wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to generate offense.
This year, guided by transfer running backs Ismail Mahdi and Quincy Craig, the Wildcats have found production on the ground. They currently rank 36th in rushing grade and 22nd in explosive run rate. Their offensive line has also created more space for those runners to operate, as Arizona ranks 34th in run-blocking grade and fifth in yards before contact per carry.
The added offensive balance has taken some pressure off of Noah Fifita, who has thus far responded with a career-best 87.2 passing grade. Iowa State ranks just 90th in the nation in run-defense grade and 108th in pass rush grade. Arizona could have opportunities to deploy both dimensions of its offense effectively.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Max): Rocco Becht against Arizona’s blitzes
Rocco Becht has had a great start to his redshirt junior campaign. His 85.8 PFF grade is 23rd among FBS signal-callers, and he has six big-time throws compared to two turnover-worthy plays. There is a pretty stark difference in how effective he is against a standard rush, though, compared to when defenses send five or more rushers at him.
Rocco Becht against a standard rush versus the blitz
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS rank) |
| Not Blitzed | 87.7 (13th) |
| Blitzed | 69.1 (71st) |
New Arizona defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales sends a blitz at the second-highest rate in the Power Four (58%), but they haven’t been very effective. The Wildcats are still just 103rd in pressure rate (28.6%) this season. What has worked for his defense is his secondary, as Arizona owns the fifth-best coverage grade in college football (91.0), and every opposing quarterback has posted sub-50.0 passing grades this season.
Predictions
Max: Iowa State 28, Arizona 23
Becht finds enough success against the Wildcats’ defense to extend Iowa State’s undefeated season while simultaneously ending Arizona’s.
Dalton: Iowa State 24, Arizona 20
Fifita is the X-factor in this game. If he can make a few big throws in crucial situations, the Wildcats can win. Iowa State will rely on its outstanding secondary and ability to run the ball to win this one.
Storyline to know: Two national championship favorites square off in a White Out
Saturday night’s game between third-ranked Penn State and No. 6 Oregon isn’t just a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship; it’s a showdown between two of the favorites to win the national title this year. Both the Nittany Lions and the Ducks are +700 to win the national championship, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, trailing only Ohio State at +550.
Both Penn State (3-0) and Oregon (4-0) are undefeated so far, but it’s also fair to say that neither has been truly tested. The Nittany Lions’ three wins came over an FCS team and two schools that are 115th or worse in PFF’s power rankings. The Ducks haven’t beaten a team in the top 80 of that same ranking. Saturday night will show who’s a legitimate national title contender in one of the most electric atmospheres in sports, Penn State’s patented White Out.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Dalton): Oregon’s pass protection vs. Penn State’s pass rush
Led by a terrific offensive line that features several veterans and talented transfers, Oregon currently leads the FBS with an elite 93.8 pass blocking grade. The Ducks have also allowed the second-lowest pressure rate in the nation, while Dante Moore has been sacked just once across 105 dropbacks.
Meanwhile, Penn State carries a perpetually elite pass rush. Led by edge defender trio Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zuriah Fisher, and Chaz Coleman, the Nittany Lions currently rank ninth in the FBS in pass-rush grade. Those three squaring off with Oregon tackles Isaiah World and Alex Harkey should provide the most intriguing matchup of the night.
Dante Moore has posted an outstanding 88.7 passing grade in a clean pocket, and he’s only been pressured on 21% of his dropbacks this season. If Penn State can’t increase the latter figure, it could be in for a long night against the red-hot quarterback.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Max): Were the Nittany Lions holding back, or should there be serious concern for Penn State’s passing game?
The Nittany Lions have had three cupcakes to start their season in Nevada, FIU and Villanova. However, you wouldn’t be able to tell by how their passing game has looked.
Penn State’s passing game this season
| Stat | Number (FBS Rank) |
| EPA per pass | 0.100 (65th) |
| Yards per pass | 7.38 (75th) |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.6% (89th) |
Despite entering the year as one of the top candidates to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, quarterback Drew Allar is just 101st among FBS quarterbacks with a 68.6 PFF grade. He’s just 86th in the country with a 21.5% uncatchable pass rate as his messy footwork still leads to too many accuracy issues. Penn State also hasn’t been great around him either, placing 72nd in team receiving grade and 82nd in team rushing grade.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki may have been holding back in the first few games to unleash the full breadth of his offense in this game against Oregon. Penn State fans should be hoping so, as the Ducks are fifth in EPA per pass on defense.
Predictions
Max: Oregon 24, Penn State 20
Oregon walks into one of the most hostile environments in all of college football and escapes with a close victory in what could be a hard-fought defensive slugfest.
Dalton: Oregon 27, Penn State 23
Penn State’s run game could carry the Nittany Lions to victory, but their passing attack has been less than impressive against lesser competition. Oregon is firing on all cylinders. If Dante Moore continues his hot streak, the Ducks will come away with a season-defining road victory.
Storyline to know: A rematch of the best game of last season
Last season’s game between Alabama and Georgia was an instant classic. After the Crimson Tide built a 28-0 lead in the first half, the Bulldogs came storming back to take a 34-33 lead with 2:30 left in the fourth quarter. On Alabama’s very next play, a true freshman, Ryan Williams, scored one of the most memorable touchdowns this century.
The Crimson Tide ended up winning that game 41-34. This year’s game pits an undefeated Georgia squad against an Alabama team looking to put that season-opening loss to Florida State in the rearview mirror.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Can Georgia’s defensive line apply any pressure to Ty Simpson?
Georgia had six defensive linemen who played at least 400 snaps last season, as well as linebacker Jalon Walker, who led the team in pressures. All of those players departed this offseason via the draft or transfer portal, which left the Bulldogs with few proven pass rushers.
Those losses have reared their ugly head so far, as Georgia ranks 125th in the nation in pass-rush grade through its first three games. The Bulldogs also rank outside the top 90 in pressure rate and pass-rush win rate. Lastly, the Bulldogs have tallied just three sacks this season, but none of those three were recorded by defensive linemen.
Georgia will be facing a quarterback in Ty Simpson, who has so far been fantastic in clean pockets. Simpson’s 91.3 clean pocket passing grade is currently the fifth-best in the FBS. He also leads the Power Four with an 87.9 adjusted completion rate from a clean pocket. Georgia needs to find a way to manufacture pressure on Simpson before he finds a consistent rhythm.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Who wins quicker: Georgia’s receivers or Alabama’s defensive line?
Gunner Stockton has had a solid start to his first season as Georgia’s starting quarterback, posting a 73.1 passing grade so far. From a clean pocket, his 83.2 passing grade is a top-50 mark in the country. However, when Stockton’s under pressure, he’s only 104th in America with a 40.2 passing grade. Georgia’s offensive line struggled to keep Stockton clean in its last game against Tennessee, posting just a 50.6 pass-blocking grade as a team.
That would appear to be a massive issue as Alabama has the second-best pressure rate in college football (47%). But yet, the Crimson Tide have just a 61.0 pass-rush grade as a team, the worst in the Power Four. That discrepancy can be explained by a vast majority of Alabama’s pressures being more due to the secondary locking down opposing receivers than any sort of dominance up front. Of the Crimson Tide’s 31 pressures this season, only eight have come from within three seconds. That’s tied for the fewest in the Power Four with UCLA and the third-fewest in the country.
Stockton normally gets rid of the ball on time with an average time to throw of 2.63 seconds, a top-50 rate in the country. But if Alabama’s secondary can force him to hold onto the ball for a beat longer, that could be enough for the defensive line to get home.
Predictions
In what could be another instant classic, the Bulldogs get revenge on the Crimson Tide and squeak out a win at home.
Dalton: Georgia 24, Alabama 21
This game is as even as it gets. Whoever can disrupt the other quarterback’s timing will be at a distinct advantage. I’ll take the home team in perhaps the most unpredictable game of the week.
Storyline to know: How legit is BYU?
The Cougars have had an impressive 3-0 start to their season, winning by an average of 38 points. BYU is now ranked, making 2025 the fifth season of the last six years where it appeared in the top 25 at least once.
However, it’s also fair to point out that the Cougars haven’t necessarily faced the toughest schedule so far and still haven’t played a top-75 opponent, according to PFF’s power rankings. While Colorado is only 2-2 on the season, it is 55th in that same ranking and will provide a good barometer for whether or not BYU is a true contender in the Big 12.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): BYU’s run game vs. Colorado’s run defense
BYU’s ability to play complementary football has long been its greatest asset. This year, the Cougars are starting a true freshman quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, so they’ve put a greater emphasis on their run game to find offensive success.
Last year, the Cougars ran the ball on just under 49% of their plays, ranking 51st in the FBS. This season, they’ve run the ball 59.8% of the time, ninth-highest in the nation. They’ve been effective in doing so as they rank 34th in rushing grade and ninth in run-blocking grade. Running Back LJ Martin has been the workhorse so far, averaging 8.6 yards per carry and recording a 22.5% explosive run rate.
That rushing success has allowed BYU to lean into their play-action passing game, which they’ve used on 40% of Bachmeier’s dropbacks. His 91.0 play-action passing grade is tied for the eighth-highest mark in the country. Colorado’s defense has allowed a combined 551 rushing yards to its two Power Four opponents, Georgia Tech and Houston. If BYU finds similar success on the ground, the Buffaloes could be in for a long night.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Have the Buffaloes finally figured it out at quarterback?
Replacing Shedeur Sanders at quarterback has been a rollercoaster, to say the least, for Colorado. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter entered the season as the starter but could only muster a 56.8 passing grade across the first two weeks before getting benched for Ryan Staub. After Staub had a disastrous 40.6 PFF grade in the loss to Houston, head coach Deion Sanders went back to Salter this past weekend against Wyoming.
And Salter responded with an 88.9 PFF grade in the victory with 304 passing yards, his most since the 2023 season. Salter will need to continue playing at or near that level if the Buffaloes are going to pull off a top-25 upset over BYU. The Cougars have a top-40 coverage grade in the country and have only given up an explosive pass on 10.6% of plays, which is 38th in the FBS. That will be pivotal in this game, considering Salter’s average depth of target is 10.5 yards, 28th in the FBS. Keeping contain on Salter will also be paramount as he has the highest average time to throw in the country (3.46 seconds) and loves to scramble around.
Predictions
The Cougars prove their legitimacy by going into Boulder and securing a tough road win, handing the Buffaloes their third loss of the season.
Bear Bachmeier will be entering the most hostile environment of his young career. However, BYU’s defense and run game should be able to carry the Cougars past a Colorado squad that is still searching for its identity on both sides of the ball.
