Week 3 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis

_{Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference . Thanks to , , Pro Football Focus and the for being awesome sources of weekly data.}

The Colts’ defense kept the Titans out of the red zone in the first half, forcing Tennessee into four field goal attempts and only 6 points. The Titans’ offense was far more effective in the 2nd half, though playing from a 21-point deficit may have had something to do with that. They managed two touchdowns, but it took them nearly 14 minutes to do it.

A 75% defensive Drive Success Rate is about average (58th percentile), but again some of that was garbage time.

TEAM TOTALS

The 13th-ranked defensive points per drive is in line with their 14th-ranked DSR, but the 4.3 yards per play allowed was the 9th lowest of any offense, and the pick-six boosted the Colts’ defensive EPA per play to 5th highest on the week.

On the season, the Colts’ 1.96 points per drive ranks 15th among all defenses. However, when adjusting for opponents—who so far haven’t been scoring much—that rank drops to 23rd. Take that with a grain of salt though because after removing the Colts games, that leaves just 2 games to judge each opponent by.

PASS TOTALS

The Colts’ defense held Cam Ward to the 4th-worst EPA per play of the week, fueled by a pick-six, the 6th-lowest yards per dropback, and the 8th-lowest play conversion rate. Ward struggled to complete passes (9th-worst completion rate) and even had trouble getting attempts off, with the 12th-highest sack rate, 9th-highest scramble rate, and 2nd-highest throw-away rate.

On a raw EPA per play basis, the Colts’ pass defense ranks 3rd best on the season, but when adjusting for opponent quality, that rank falls to 14th.

RUSH TOTALS

The Colts’ run defense struggled against a Tennessee rushing offense that I had ranked 27th coming into the game. Game script kept the Titans from rushing often, but on their 20 carries they still produced 8 first downs and a touchdown, giving them the 2nd-highest run play conversion rate in Week 3. Indianapolis surrendered two explosive runs for 37 yards, but held the rest in check, finishing 15th in opponent yards per carry.

However, much of that rushing damage came with the Colts up by 21, when they were content to concede runs in exchange for draining the clock.

On the season, the Colts have allowed the 12th-highest weighted Rush Success Rate, and when adjusting for opponent strength, that rank falls to 27th.

CONCLUSION

The first half was a brilliant showing by the defense, and I’m willing to give them some slack for a loose 2nd half after taking a 3-score lead.

In general, they look stronger against the pass than the run, and if I had to pick one strength, that’s the one I’d choose. Of course, there’s no rule against being good at both.

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