Daniel Carlson has seen a lot of ups and downs with the Las Vegas Raiders in his career, and kicker is often a position that those downs don’t happen too often.
The soon to be 31 year old, was a 5th round pick of the Minnesota Vikings in 2018 where after struggling completing just 1 attempt in four tries through two games, the Vikings released him. The Raiders picked up Carlson after a few weeks off, where he’d go on to convert 16/17 (94.1%) setting a Raiders record while also being perfect on field goal attempts. 2019 was much different seeing Carlson go 19/26 (73.1%) and questions surrounded if he’d remain with the team going forward. Las Vegas kept Carlson after a preseason battle and the multi year vet rattled off three straight seasons of 92% or more including an NFL leading 43 field goals in 2021. He was a 2x All-Pro in that span as well. 2023 started the dip for Carlson seeing him go 26/30 (86.7%) and then 34/40 (85%) in 2024. The biggest issue with Carlson came with his attempts from 50+, between 2018 and 2022 Carlson converted 24 of 29 attempts from 50+ compared to just 8 of 14 from 2023 and 2024. In 2025, Carlson is just 1/2 on 50+ attempts and 2/3 on the season overall.
The kicker position in the NFL is seeing a massive shift, the 50+ yard field goal, which even four years ago, was considered to be tough is almost becoming an expected automatic kick. The NFL has seen more attempts and makes from 50+ yards in the last three seasons and that trend likely isn’t going to decrease any time soon. Carlson has a strong leg but his inaccuracy from 50+ have started to call for concern. Heading into a free agent season, the Raiders not only need to see a lot from Carlson, but Carlson is also looking to set up his value as well.
2026 Market Preview:
The kicker position isn’t near the top in pay scale, but it is a position that seems high paying contracts to players that deserve the necessary compensation. Carlson is currently the 13th paid kicker on an AAV scale at 4.6 million a season. His projected market value sits at 2 years, 11M seeing him earn a slight increase which would make him tied for the 6th paid kicker in the NFL with the likes of Graham Gano, Evan McPherson, and Cam Dicker. 2026 will see Carlson, Matt Gay, Will Lutz, and Nick Folk slated to hit free agency so there’s a chance that Carlson is the best kicker to hit the market (unless something crazy happens with Lions Jake Bates or Cowboys Brandon Aubrey, who are both RFA). The NFL has an expectation at kicker, and plenty of teams would be looking to add Carlson to upgrade their rooms. Carlson ranked 19th in FG% last season, which was still above the NFL average (Carlson was 14th in 2023, also above league average). Ideally, a kicker is converting north of 90% of his attempts, which the NFL see’s roughly 10-11 kickers do each season. Carlson needs to put together a strong 2025 season, and that will determine not only his future with the Raiders but the compensation as well. The Raiders could look to retain Carlson, and bring in competition, in an attempt to spark Carlson forward while also preventing themselves from being in a horrific kicking situation.
If the Raiders move on from Carlson, they could look to draft a kicker, though the success rate is often below 15% for drafted kicker. 2026 is not a favorable kicker draft class, though standouts include Iowa’s Drew Stevens (60/74), Michigan’s Dom Zvada (59/68), BYU’s Will Ferrin (41/47), Notre Dame’s Noah Burnette (52/65), and Minnesota’s Dragan Kesich (43/56). With this, the free agent market is also not the strongest, and there’s a strong chance Gay, Lutz, and Folk would all stay put. The Raiders may be hard pressed to find a better kicking option than Carlson, though they could explore a UFL aspect with Rodrigo Blankenship.
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