I was waiting all day for Sunday night.
What a mistake.
My fellow riders on the Purple Pain Train, did you really think we’d end up anywhere else but circling the familiar Doom Loop? Some success appears. Hope rises. Heartbreak follows. Rinse. Repeat. It has defined our existence since the 1970s. I wasn’t around for that, but the ensuing decades made sure the sequels were of equal or superior quality to the original.
J.J. McCarthy is officially out for two to four weeks with a high ankle sprain. That means it’s the Carson Wentz show. Stay tuned below for my thoughts on that.
But first…
The Sunday Night Disaster
My strict rule: I never bet on teams that I root for. The passion that comes with even mild fandom can cloud judgment and lead to undesirable outcomes. Your wishes influence your thoughts, and you tend to lean toward positive expectations. It’s human nature. The best you can do is recognize this and take proactive steps to balance it as best as you can.
A similar dynamic exists in the predictions game. Many times, I’ve had a postgame mental debrief after a Vikings disaster, only for hindsight to chime in, grinning ear-to-ear and asking, “What were you thinking?” The evidence didn’t support those rosy scenarios I wanted to believe while standing at the corner of Fantasy Drive and Delusion Avenue.
That being said, sometimes you’re just…wrong.
The idea that the offensive magic in the fourth quarter of the opener would carry into the home opener against a solid Atlanta Falcons team seemed reasonable. And I truly believed it. With virtually no meaningful preseason reps, some rust was expected. Plus, J.J. McCarthy hadn’t played in a meaningful game in over 19 months, which supported this view. He appeared to find his footing until…he didn’t.
The same goes for play-calling. Calling vanilla preseason games isn’t the same as handling the pressure and adjustments needed during the regular season. Given the track record, one would have expected KOC to quickly adjust and be ready to hit the ground running in Week 2. Instead, the opposite happened. Whatever Raheem Morris and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich did with those five-man front looks wasn’t effectively countered—neither in blocking protections nor route adjustments. Credit where it’s due, they outplayed KOC. However, the 2025 Falcons defense won’t be remembered as the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens, either. They could be good – heck, even excellent. But come on now.
I’m not a football coach – and couldn’t even play one on TV – but after two games, there’s no rhythm or cohesion at all. Nothing seemed to set up anything else. Here, there, and everywhere led to nowhere. An odd commitment to longer-developing routes has been a focus of Vikings-related social media. Similarly, Alec Lewis of The Athletic noted the Vikings have only run three quick-game concepts thus far this season, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). A quick game concept is defined as “concepts with pass route breaks coming under seven yards across the board.” A bizarre development given the revolving door at left tackle and Ryan Kelly exiting early on. That could also explain why McCarthy’s average time before throwing hit 3.35 seconds, the highest in the NFL in Week 2.
KOC’s offense has now averaged 12 points per game in the last four games that mattered, with three of them under 10 points. Not ideal. It’s nowhere near any panic level, but the numbers are what they are. Given KOC’s track record, we should expect some improvements. Something has to give – and soon.
This loss was clearly a result of the team’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball. The defense kept us afloat and made us more competitive than we had any right to be, but there were issues against the run. The Falcons gashed us to the tune of 218 yards on 39 carries (5.6 yards per carry). That being said, my level of concern is zero. I recall a similar game against the Eagles in 2023, when they ran for 259 yards on the ground, and we looked totally outmatched. The following three games? We gave up a combined 180 yards on 67 carries. Brian Flores will straighten this out quickly.
Despite feeling like I want to vomit at the end of this nightmare, the final stats made me feel even worse. Craig Williams of the DN compiled a long list of the top candidates for Nincompoop of the Week, along with some of the worst misses involving offensive and coaching mistakes. Let me add this to highlight the depth of incompetence we faced:
Where We Go from Here
Enter Carson Wentz. I really have no idea why he was still available in late August, but I’m certainly grateful that he’s here now. It wasn’t even like money was an issue, as he came on board for $1.4 million.
Kirk Cousins aside, one can make a compelling argument that Wentz is the best backup in the NFL. Although brief, his peak was fantastic. This, of course, was the 2017 season with the Philadelphia Eagles when an injury robbed him of an MVP award. He followed that up with some strong campaigns, the last being not too far in the rearview: 2021 with the Indianapolis Colts, where he threw for over 3,500 yards with 27 TDs, 7 INTs, and a QB rating of 94.6.
We’ve been here before: Cunningham, George, Favre, Keenum, Darnold. All came here and rejuvenated their careers. Except for Favre, all came here and played the best football of their career. There’s something in the water in Minnesota that welcomes brilliant musicians and quarterback revival.
Could we be witnessing the next chapter? I dunno. I’d be surprised if Wentz comes in and outright stinks up the joint. It would be counter to everything we’ve seen in the KOC era so far. Counterargument? We are the Vikings.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested that McCarthy may not even make the trip for the two upcoming European games and use the bye for extra rest in preparation for a tough Week 7 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. I tend to be of this mindset as well.
There are several scenarios as to how this all unfolds in the coming weeks. Let’s dive into the most likely, shall we?
Scenario 1: Wentz comes in, balls out, and never relinquishes the starting job.
The stars have aligned for less likely outcomes. Think the best of 2024 Sam Darnold…or even 2017 Carson Wentz. We’re stacked. Darrisaw and Addison are returning. The inevitable emergence of Jordan Mason as the permanent starting RB provides an additional boost. The next three games are against the Cincinnati Bengals, sans Burrow and their questionable defense, the inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers, and the perpetually stuck-in-the-mud Cleveland Browns.
Sitting at 4-1 with the wind at Wentz’s back on a team built to win now, the pressure to stay the course will be immense. McCarthy’s poor showing so far will further fuel the idea that perhaps more time behind a proven veteran is warranted. Of course, if Wentz enjoys this kind of success, barring a Super Bowl appearance, we’re essentially back to where we were last spring with Darnold. Oh, the joy at the thought of that.
Scenario 2: Wentz plays decently and keeps us afloat. McCarthy starts after the bye but continues to struggle. Uncertainty abounds.
Yeah, this isn’t great. Wentz plays well on the heels of some stout defense, and we go, say, 2-1. Solid, but nothing to consider a permanent change. McCarthy comes back and looks as bad as the first two weeks over the span of the next month or so. With the season on the brink in early November, KOC will have a decision to make. Expectations for this team were sky high. At what point will you owe it to the rest of the team to put Wentz back in? What would a benching do to McCarthy’s mindset? Let’s hope we never find out.
Scenario 3: Wentz plays decently and keeps us afloat. McCarthy starts after the bye and improves significantly. Our dreams come true.
The ideal scenario. With a healthy supporting cast at his disposal, Addison back in the fold, and KOC getting the play-calling issues squared away, a rested McCarthy steps up. Improvement is immediately evident and undeniable, and the fourth-quarter version of the Bears game becomes the norm. Our QBOTF officially arrives. We live happily ever after.
FYI: I’m planning on a write-up on the (IMO) premature panic that has engulfed a not insignificant portion of the Vikings fan base regarding J.J. McCarthy…after two games. Relax, folks. Some of the doomerism is quite intense. He’s not Ponder. He’s not Lance. Give it some time. I’m of unwavering faith that he’s the Vikings’ QBOTF.
Scenario 4: Max Brosmer somehow finds the field, becomes 1999 Kurt Warner, and wins the Vikings their first Super Bowl.
Since we are the Vikings, take the odds of winning the Powerball two years in a row, then triple it. That seems like the realistic chances of this happening. But I owe it to all those Brosmer Bros out there to at least acknowledge it.
We’re On To Cincinnati
Back in May, I had the Vikings winning this one in a shootout:
Week 3 – Cincinnati Bengals: Containing Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins proves a tall order. Burrow does Burrow things early and often to our secondary. Fortunately, the Bengals must play defense, too (but can’t). KOC has the offense ready to answer the challenge. The Vikings’ 2nd half defense slows Burrow down just enough for the Vikings to prevail in a shootout. This one feels good.
Minnesota Vikings: 38
Cincinnati Bengals: 34
Well, throw that out the window. Joe Burrow vs. an ascending J.J. McCarthy ain’t happening. It’s now the Carson Wentz vs. Jake Browning show.
On paper, this appears to be the ideal scenario for a bounce-back game. We’re at home—no Burrow. The Bengals’ defense is shaky, etc.
Browning played…okay. He tossed three interceptions but also threw two touchdowns on 21/32 for 241 yards passing. He won the game. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are going to be a nightmare regardless of who’s behind center for the Bengals. They have other offensive weapons. That needs to be acknowledged.
That being said, the Bengals are fortunate to be 2-0. They were outgained 327 to 141 in Week 1 (22 vs 11 on first downs) against the Browns (with Burrow), then again in Week 2 against the Jaguars (350 to 400). No one is going to confuse either of those offenses with the 2007 Patriots or 2013 Broncos.
But Shawn, we’re fortunate not to be 0-2. I’ll concede that. We certainly are. Yet at some point, you have to look at the history, the coaching, and the top-to-bottom talent.
Something has to give.
With KOC and Brian Flores, the Vikings rank 30th in offensive DVOA (via Aaron Schatz) and 32nd in overall defense (PFF) after two weeks. To date, nothing suggests this will continue. A course correction is coming.
KOC is the guy who turned Sam Darnold into Dan Fouts and performed magic tricks with Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens. You’re telling me Carson Wentz can’t come in here and play well? Yes, the fact that he hasn’t even been in the building a month must be noted, but I recall Dobbs stunning the Falcons after being in the building for less than a week.
As for the defense, do people honestly think Flores isn’t going to get it together? I gave a great example of it above. There’s a better chance of Mike Zimmer writing a book on the merits of the Run N’ Shoot.
As I write this, we could get some positive injury news for Sunday. Besides those already ruled out, Ryan Kelly may be the only starter with a questionable status trending in the wrong direction. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jeff Okudah could both clear concussion protocol. Christian Darrisaw and Harrison could finally be good to go, even if the latter may be on a snap count.
We can’t lose this one. We just can’t. Given the aforementioned advantages, one has to think the pendulum swings back our way. Counterpoint: We are the Vikings.
It’s hard to call a game in the third week a “must win,” but losses like these lurk, and could come back to bite us in the ass in what’s expected to be a highly competitive NFC playoff picture.
I choose optimism.
Vikings: 27
Bengals: 17
0 CommentsSee More:
