The New York Giants play their home opener in prime time against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are winless, as Kansas City lost 27-21 to the Chargers and 20-17 at home against the Eagles in Week 2. The Chiefs are currently 6-point favorites, and the Over/Under is 45.5.
Desperation defines this Sunday Night Football game. Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Taylor Swift will all be dialed into the affair in a virtual must-win game for both teams. The Giants allowed victory to slip through their fingers after an explosive effort from the offense. The defense allowed 40 points, but played well, at times.
Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is under heavy criticism from the Giants’ fanbase for failing to maximize a defense loaded with investment — and for allowing Dallas to reach field goal range with just 25 seconds left, which sent the game into overtime after Russell Wilson’s near walk-off touchdown pass to Malik Nabers.
Although the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t reached its peak recently, stopping Patrick Mahomes remains a daunting task.
Matchup statistics
The Chiefs’ offense has struggled against two respectable defenses. Much like the Giants, the Chiefs struggled to run the football on offense, with much of their rushing success attributed to Patrick Mahomes’ improvisation in the pocket.
Kansas City uses a running back tandem of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, and they’ll sprinkle in Brashard Smith. Pacheco has played the most of the three, but averages just 3.1 yards per carry. Hunt averages 3.6 yards per carry. The Giants, however, rank dead last in stopping the run; they’ve allowed 177.5 yards per game in 2025. To be fair, the Giants were much better against the run in Week 2 than they were in Week 1, but they still fell victim to a 30-yard counter touchdown run by Javonte Williams.
Here are some more Giants’ rushing statistics:
Despite Kansas City’s rushing issues, they’re still second-highest in the NFL in explosive rush rate (10+ rush yards), which is primarily attributed to Patrick Mahomes’ scrambling; the star quarterback has 123 yards on the ground with two rushing touchdowns on 13 attempts (9.5 yards per attempt). Mahomes has seven of the Chiefs’ nine explosive runs.
It’s only two games, but the Chiefs are currently 17th in the NFL (tied) with an average of 320.5 yards per game. They’re only converting 34.6% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 26th in the NFL; the Giants are tied for 27th in the league with a 33% rate.
2025 Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes leads the NFL in scrambling, first-downs, and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Mahomes’ penchant to scramble will pose a problem for Shane Bowen and the Giants, who will likely live in two-high shells.
One reason for Mahomes’ scrambling is due to pressure. According to NFLPro, Mahomes has been pressured in 2.45 seconds on average this season, the 5th-quickest in the NFL, and his quickest in any season since 2018. This is interesting because Patrick Mahomes has been pressured on just 27.1% of his dropbacks this season, the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL. Mahomes is decisive on when to rush.
Andy Reid and Mahomes have a healthy mixture of attack vertically while operating the quick game underneath. NFL Pro has Patrick Mahomes with an 11.8% deep (20+ yards) passing rate, which is his highest rate since 2019; he’s completed three of eight of those passes for 136 yards with one touchdown to Tyquon Thornton, who averages 29.7 air yards per target this season — the most in the NFL of players with five or more targets.
It’s also important to note that Patrick Mahomes has averaged the 2nd-quickest time to throw in the league this season (2.47 seconds), which would be the quickest time to throw of his career (previous low: 2.78 seconds in 2017). Still, according to NFLPro, Mahomes has posted the 5th-lowest completion percentage (61.0%) and the 4th-lowest success rate (39.0%) on passes under 2.5 seconds.
The defense is forcing Mahomes to check down and operate in the short areas of the football field — something the Giants have significantly struggled to defend. 76.5% of Mahomes’ attempts were under ten air yards, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Through two games, Mahomes is 40/68 (58.8%) with 445 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He averages 6.5 yards per attempt with an 8.7 aDOT and a Big Time Throw Rate of 5.7%. Mahomes’ 58.8% completion rate is 30th in the NFL. The loss of Xavier Worthy and suspension of Rashee Rice are one reason for the turbulence with the Chiefs’ passing attack.
Chiefs passing weapons
Hollywood Brown is a respectable receiver for Mahomes. He has secured 15 of 19 passes for 129 yards, but there’s one other pass catcher I’m very worried about in this matchup — Travis Kelce. The 35-year-old currently ranks fourth among tight ends in yards after contact. He’s secured six of nine targets from Mahomes for 108 yards with a touchdown.
Kelce is long in the tooth, but the season is early, and he’s playing well despite the drop. Perhaps the off-season weight loss narrative is a reality, but that’s not the reason for my concern. Bowen’s defense is vulnerable in the middle of the field, and the Giants are weak at linebacker with the injuries to Micah McFadden and Darius Muasau; the latter may clear the protocol, but that does little to alleviate my coverage concerns over the middle of the field, where Kelce could feast.
The speed of Tyquon Thornton will test the Giants’ secondary; not only does Thornton lead the league in yards per reception, but aDot as well. Both wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and Noah Gray may also find success over the middle of the field between the zones, but the latter has just five targets on the season and the former seven, with six catches.
Thornton has played over 70% of the snaps in each matchup. Smith-Schuster 80% in Week 1 and 70% in Week 2. Jason Brownlee will see offensive snaps as well — he’s played 14 so far. Kelce has played 97 of 121 total snaps; Gray 64, with Robert Tonyan Jr. accounting for 13 total snaps.
Again, Bowen is likely to keep a lid on a Mahomes-led offense as he did against Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott, but will the Giants’ vulnerabilities in the intermediate parts of the field — between the incredibly deep safeties and the injured linebackers — be exploited by Reid?
Offensive line
Kansas City has invested in its offensive line and retained top talent like right guard Trey Smith. The Chiefs spent their first round pick on Josh Simmons, who was recovering from an injury and fell in the draft. Simmons has played well at left tackle, surrendering just four pressures through two games. Creed Humphrey remains one of the best centers in the NFL, and Jawaan Taylor has performed well through two games at right tackle.
Second-year guard Kingsley Suamataia struggled against the Eagles and was not great in Week 1 versus the Chargers. He has allowed a sack and eight pressures from the left guard spot. Despite the Chiefs’ offensive line, the Giants’ front four, plus Carter, should have an advantage, and Suamataia is the prime target to exploit. However, Mahomes’ quick release and scrambling ability may help combat the success of New York’s front four.
Final thoughts
Both teams are winless, with a combined 0-4 record. The Chiefs have yet to find their offensive identity, and Shane Bowen’s unimaginative, conservative style of defense does protect against the explosive plays. I expect a lot of two-high looks, but the Chiefs understand that tactic. The Giants must remain mindful of Mahomes’ rushing ability and the intermediate zones. They have struggled to match and relate to routes in zone, allowing quarterbacks with anticipation to find a crevice to attack.
New York has found itself in another must-win September game. It’s not great. Despite that, though, the Giants have a chance to pull off this upset due to the struggles of Kansas City’s offense. I don’t, however, see the Giants’ offense having similar success to Week 2. I have the Chiefs winning and the Giants falling to 0-3.
