College Football Week 4 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the biggest games
By
Max Chadwick
and
Dalton Wasserman
- Illinois–Indiana is the headliner: Two top-20 teams square off in a game that could be pivotal in the College Football Playoff race.
Estimated Reading Time: 32 minutes
Week 3 of the college football season produced a few instant classics, like Georgia Tech beating Clemson, Georgia defeating Tennessee in overtime and Texas A&M besting Notre Dame.
The Week 4 slate also looks very strong, with three matchups between ranked teams and plenty of other enticing games. Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for the 10 biggest games this weekend.
Storyline to know: The two Big 12 favorites square off
Saturday’s game between Texas Tech and Utah pits the two favorites to win the Big 12 conference against each other. The Red Raiders are +350 to win the conference, while the Utes are +380, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The next-closest team is TCU at +650.
The PFF College Football Show agrees with those odds as well. In our preseason Big 12 Championship Game predictions, Max had Texas Tech beating Utah, while Dalton had Utah taking down Arizona State.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Dalton): Behren Morton vs. Utah’s hyper aggressive pass defense
Despite this being Behren Morton’s fifth year in college football, he has somehow never played a snap against Utah. In this game, he’ll be facing three separate challenges — the Utes’ raucous home environment, an aggressive blitzing front and a ton of man-to-man coverage.
In 19 career home appearances, Morton has earned a solid 80.4 PFF passing grade with 43 passing touchdowns, 24 big-time throws and 16 turnover-worthy plays. But in 12 career road appearances, Morton’s passing grade drops to 59.0, while he has thrown an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions. Those struggles on the road include 15 big-time throws compared to 23 turnover-worthy plays.
If Utah is going to bother Morton in its home stadium, the Utes will likely do it by applying pressure. During his four-plus years in college football, Morton has posted an excellent 86.3 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket compared to an abysmal 35.5 passing grade under pressure. His ability to work through pressure will be key against a Utah team that has blitzed on more than 43% of opposing dropbacks this season.
Morton has also been inconsistent against man coverage throughout his career. His 64.5 career PFF passing grade versus man coverage pales in comparison to his 76.3 passing grade versus zone coverage. So far this season, Utah has deployed man coverage at the third-highest rate in the nation, behind only Colorado and Washington.
If Morton is going to lead the Red Raiders to a massive victory, he’ll need to exorcise some of his prior demons.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Utah’s offensive line against Texas Tech’s defensive line
Grab your popcorn. Utah’s offensive line against Texas Tech’s defensive line will be one of the best trench battles you’ll see all year, if not the best.
The Utes entered 2025 with PFF’s No. 2 offensive line in college football. Their two tackles, Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, are two of the 15 best prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to PFF’s big board. Utah has lived up to the hype so far, with the second-lowest pressure rate allowed in the country (7.7%). Four of the Utes’ five starters up front have 80.0-plus PFF pass-blocking grades so far.
The Red Raiders entered the season with our No. 3 defensive line in the country thanks to their addition of a few star transfers. They have also met those expectations and then some, as Texas Tech currently fields the highest-graded defensive line in college football (92.7). It leads the nation with a 96.1 PFF run-defense grade and is third with a 90.1 PFF pass-rushing grade.
Texas Tech Defensive Line This Season
| Player | Position | PFF Grade (FBS Rank at position) |
| Skyler Gill-Howard | DI | 91.6 (1st) |
| Romello Height | EDGE | 93.8 (4th) |
| Jayden Cofield | DI | 84.9 (10th) |
| David Bailey | EDGE | 89.1 (14th) |
| Lee Hunter | DI | 82.8 (16th) |
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 28, Utah 27
In a game that could go down to the wire, the Red Raiders pull off a road victory in the first of what could be two meetings between these two teams.
Dalton: Utah 31, Texas Tech 28
Utah’s run game and Devon Dampier’s improvisational skills make the difference for Utah in an extremely tight contest.
Storyline to know: Two programs looking to establish themselves as at-large playoff contenders
As mentioned above, TCU is currently third in odds to win the Big 12 (+650), while SMU is sixth in the ACC (+1300). Since neither is favored to win the teams’ respective conferences, their most likely path to the College Football Playoff is one of the seven at-large spots.
TCU is trying to start 3-0 on the season after beating both North Carolina and Abilene Christian. Meanwhile, SMU is 2-1 after downing East Texas A&M and Missouri State while losing in double overtime to Baylor. The winner of this game has a great chance at joining the top 25 in the following week, while the loser suffers a major blow to their resume.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Dalton): Can Kevin Jennings clean up his ball security?
Over his past 10 games, Kevin Jennings has committed 20 turnover-worthy plays. While his playmaking ability outside the pocket is in the upper echelon of current college quarterbacks, he has often sacrificed ball security, particularly under pressure, in order to create explosive plays.
Fifteen of those 20 turnover-worthy plays have come under pressure, where Jennings owns an abysmal 28.9 PFF passing grade this season. More specifically, 14 of them have come after the 2.5-second mark of his dropback. The biggest factor in this game, though, could be that Jennings owns a 6.2% turnover-worthy play rate against the blitz in his past 10 contests.
That last point is important, because TCU has blitzed opposing quarterbacks at the fifth-highest rate in the country since the start of last season. However, the Horned Frogs blitzed Jennings just over a quarter of the time in this matchup last season, perhaps because they were afraid of his vertical passing ability.
SMU won the turnover battle over TCU 5-to-1 last season. Jennings needs to make sure he limits his mistakes again this time around.
Matchup to watch when TCU has the ball (Max): Can SMU get after Josh Hoover?
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has been phenomenal through two games. His 91.5 PFF passing grade is second among all FBS quarterbacks, while his 76.2% completion rate is sixth. Hoover’s been especially good when kept clean, posting a 91.6 passing grade that’s eighth in America.
That’s no different than how effective he was from clean pockets last year, as he was 14th in the country with a 90.6 overall PFF grade in such situations. While Hoover fields a top-20 grade under pressure this season (74.8), it’s a very limited sample size. Last season, he recorded just a 56.4 grade against pressure with one big-time throw and eight turnover-worthy plays.
After losing its top-three pressure leaders from last season, SMU’s pass rush has looked sluggish out of the gate. The Mustangs only pressured Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson on nine of his 55 dropbacks in their loss. At the same time, the Horned Frogs are 21st in team PFF pass-blocking grade (79.4) and only surrendered six pressures on Hoover’s 37 dropbacks against North Carolina.
Predictions
With plenty of clean pockets to work from, Hoover finds success against SMU’s defense and delivers the Mustangs their second loss of the season.
This game could be decided by turnovers. If Josh Hoover maintains his newfound production throwing to the outside, the Horned Frogs have a good chance to score a home victory and avenge last year’s loss to the Mustangs.
Storyline to know: Arkansas looks to bounce back, while Memphis seeks a signature win for its playoff resume
After a 2-0 start to its season, Arkansas was on the losing end of a shootout with No. 17 Ole Miss this past weekend, falling 41-35. The Razorbacks are looking to bounce back in their second straight road game this week against an undefeated Memphis squad.
The Tigers are trying to stamp themselves as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders with a win over Arkansas this Saturday. If they do, it’ll be their first 4-0 start since 2019. That was the last time Memphis finished a season as the highest-ranked Group of Five team, and it got to play in the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.
Matchup to watch when Arkansas has the ball (Dalton): Can Memphis contain the Razorbacks’ run game on the edges?
Quarterback Taylen Green and running back Mike Washington Jr. comprise a dynamic rushing duo that excels when they are able to run off-tackle. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has made that the foundation of the Razorbacks’ run game.
Since the start of last season, Arkansas ranks 16th in yards per carry on off-tackle runs. The Razorbacks have also scored the 12th-most touchdowns on such runs and have generated the 19th-highest explosive run rate. Their variety of pin-pull run concepts and read options give them a dangerous lateral rushing attack.
Memphis has earned an 89.4 PFF run-defense grade as a team through three games. The Tigers will be relying on key players such as edge defender William Whitlow Jr. and linebacker Sam Brumfield to keep Green and Washington in the box as often as possible.
Matchup to watch when Memphis has the ball (Max): Can Brendon Lewis exploit Arkansas’ secondary?
Last year, the Razorbacks received the seventh-worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four with a 61.0 mark. While Arkansas’ secondary looked much better through its two wins over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, that issue reared its ugly head once again in its loss to Ole Miss this past weekend. The Razorbacks compiled just a 52.4 coverage grade in the defeat, even though the Rebels played a backup quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss.
Arkansas has another difficult road test this week against Memphis. After posting a 90.1 overall PFF grade at Nevada in 2024, Brendon Lewis has continued his strong play with the Tigers. His 86.2 grade this year is a top-20 mark among FBS quarterbacks, and his 86.1% adjusted completion rate is second to only Julian Sayin. He’ll have an opportunity to take advantage of a vulnerable Razorback secondary on Saturday.
Predictions
Memphis has difficulties containing Taylen Green’s explosiveness as both a runner and passer. Arkansas bounces back from its shootout loss to Ole Miss last week with a high-scoring victory this week.
Dalton: Arkansas 30, Memphis 24
If Arkansas can contain Brendon Lewis’ deep passing production, the Razorbacks should be able to control this game with their dynamic rushing duo of Taylen Green and Mike Washington Jr.
Storyline to know: Jackson Arnold makes his return
Jackson Arnold was a five-star recruit from the 2023 class and was supposed to be the quarterback that led Oklahoma back to the College Football Playoff. But, in his first year as the Sooners’ starter in 2024, he finished with a 57.7 PFF passing grade and was even benched for a few games.
Arnold transferred to Auburn this past offseason and has started to show what made him such a highly-touted recruit in the first place, posting an 83.1 overall PFF grade during the Tigers’ 3-0 start. He’ll now make his return to Norman in this massive top-25 SEC matchup.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Max): Can Jackson Arnold handle the pressure?
Arnold is already under pressure, figuratively speaking, as he’s going on the road to face his former school. His ability to face the literal pressure from Oklahoma will be a huge determining factor in Auburn’s chances of winning this game.
Jackson Arnold’s PFF Grades by Situation
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS rank) |
| Kept Clean | 90.1 (22nd) |
| Under Pressure | 33.5 (127th) |
| Not Blitzed | 88.8 (9th) |
| Blitzed | 59.9 (103rd) |
These numbers are in line with Arnold at Oklahoma as well, as he was just 143rd in PFF grade under pressure last year (33.9) and 136th when blitzed (52.1).
The Sooners have done an excellent job of getting after opposing quarterbacks this season. Oklahoma’s 46.9% pressure rate is fifth in college football, while its 49.4% blitz rate ranks 18th. Head coach Brent Venables is most likely going to dial it up even more against his former quarterback this weekend.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Can Oklahoma find a consistent rhythm on the ground?
Quarterback John Mateer has accounted for the vast majority of Oklahoma’s offensive production so far this season. The Sooners were expected to count on Mateer and a talented group of running backs to provide elite rushing production, but that hasn’t happened quite yet.
While Oklahoma does rank 34th in PFF rushing grade due to the exploits of Mateer and Tory Blaylock, it’s been a grind for the Sooners to produce at a consistent level. OU ranks just 94th in PFF run-blocking grade in a continuation of last year’s offensive line struggles. As a result, the team slots just 110th in yards per carry and has seen particular struggles running between the tackles.
Meanwhile, Auburn’s stout defensive line has been at the forefront of an effort that has the Tigers currently ranked seventh in PFF run-defense grade. Star edge defenders Keldric Faulk and Keyron Crawford have given offenses fits, as both rank among the top 25 qualified edge defenders in run-defense grade.
Perhaps Mateer can carry the Sooners to victory again, but if his team can’t find better production on the ground, there may be too much pressure on him to beat a very good defense.
Predictions
Jackson Arnold struggles to get anything going against his former team, and Heisman candidate John Mateer makes just enough plays for the Sooners to pull out the victory.
Dalton: Auburn 23, Oklahoma 20
Auburn’s ability to stick to its identity beats out Oklahoma’s ultra-reliance on John Mateer, as the Tigers score a huge SEC road victory.
Storyline to know: Tulane tries to become the clear favorite for the Group of Five playoff spot
Tulane is off to a 3-0 start to its season, with two victories over Power Four opponents in Northwestern and Duke. Because of that and USF’s loss to Miami, the Green Wave have easily the shortest odds of any Group of Five school to make the College Football Playoff at +380, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The next-closest is Boise State at +600.
Tulane has an opportunity to become an even bigger favorite this weekend as it goes on the road to face a top-15 opponent in Ole Miss. The Rebels are off to a 3-0 start to their campaign and are coming off a 41-35 win over Arkansas this past weekend.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Dalton): Will Jake Retzlaff’s legs continue to be a weapon for the Green Wave?
Jake Retzlaff has been in Tulane’s program for a little over a month. As such, the two parties are certainly in an adjustment period with regard to Retzlaff learning his new offense. One thing that is abundantly clear is that the Green Wave coaching staff is giving Retzlaff the freedom to win with his athleticism, whether that be by design or as an improvisor.
Through his first three games, Retzlaff has taken 40 rush attempts. That would put him on pace to shatter his previous career high of 91 carries last season. He’s been highly effective when running the ball this season, as his 282 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and 10 explosive runs all rank among the top six quarterbacks in the nation.
Ole Miss didn’t give up much rushing production to quarterbacks in its first two games, but the Rebels are coming off a performance in which they allowed Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green to rush for 115 yards and a combined 10 first downs and touchdowns. That’s the most rushing yards they’ve allowed to a single quarterback since they yielded 123 to Jayden Daniels in Week 5 of 2023.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Max): Who starts at quarterback for the Rebels?
Head coach Lane Kiffin is still trying to figure out who will replace his first-round quarterback, Jaxson Dart. Austin Simmons entered the season as the starter following an 82.5 overall PFF grade as Dart’s backup in 2024. But, Simmons has just a 57.3 PFF passing grade through three weeks, and couldn’t start this past week’s game against Arkansas due to an ankle injury that he reinjured during his four snaps in the game.
Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss received the start against the Razorbacks, and he shined in the victory. He generated an 85.3 PFF grade in the win after throwing for 353 yards and a touchdown as well as rushing for 58 yards and two touchdowns. The former Division II national champion finished with two big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays in the victory.
Even if Simmons is healthy enough to play, Kiffin may still ride with the hot hand in Chambliss. Whoever starts on Saturday will face a Tulane defense that’s currently 19th in PFF coverage grade (88.5) but only 118th in PFF run-defense grade (64.1). That favors Chambliss as the more mobile option, especially with Simmons battling an ankle injury. It’s worth mentioning that Kiffin said he anticipates Simmons will be healthy enough to play and start on Saturday.
Predictions
The Rebels find success on the ground against the Green Wave and continue their undefeated season, while Tulane fails to add a major victory to its playoff resume.
Dalton: Ole Miss 27, Tulane 20
In a game that could come down to who wins the turnover battle, the Rebels find enough cracks in a good Green Wave secondary to grab their fourth victory of the year.
Storyline to know: Two programs trying to emerge as playoff contenders with anointed saviors at quarterback
Neither Michigan nor Nebraska is among the five highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten right now. But, both have an opportunity to join that group this Saturday and emerge as legitimate contenders for a College Football Playoff spot.
The other characteristic that both of these teams share is that they possess quarterbacks that they hope will lead their programs back to glory. Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola sits at an 80.1 overall PFF grade as a sophomore and was the first five-star recruit that the Cornhuskers added in 19 years. Likewise, Michigan’s Bryce Underwood has sported a 73.4 PFF grade as a true freshman. Not only did he enter Ann Arbor as the No. 1 overall recruit from the 2025 class, but he was one of the highest-rated quarterback recruits ever.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Max): Can Nebraska slow down Michigan’s run game enough?
While all eyes will be on Underwood when the Wolverines possess the ball, the Cornhuskers need to focus on stopping Michigan’s ground game first. The Wolverines run the ball on 54.3% of their plays, the 25th-highest rate in the country. Michigan is also 22nd in PFF rushing grade and 35th in PFF run-blocking grade so far, while running back Justice Haynes ranks fifth in America with 388 rushing yards. Underwood himself ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns against Central Michigan this past weekend.
Nebraska’s pass defense has been phenomenal so far, leading the country in EPA per pass (-0.534). The Cornhuskers have had far more issues in run defense, though, especially in their Week 1 win over Cincinnati. Nebraska posted just a 42.8 PFF run-defense grade in that game, its worst since the 2022 season. The Bearcats averaged 6.7 yards per carry on the ground with 2.9 of them coming before contact. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby led Cincinnati with 96 rushing yards and two touchdowns, so Underwood’s legs could be a big factor in the game.
Michigan’s strategy this weekend will likely be to rely on its run game and avoid obvious passing situations as much as possible.
Matchup to watch when Nebraska has the ball (Nebraska): How often will Dana Holgorsen let Dylan Raiola attack downfield?
So far this season, Dylan Raiola has been one of the most efficient downfield passers in the country. Among passers with at least 10 attempts of 10 or more air yards, Raiola leads the FBS in adjusted completion rate and passer rating. His 94.3 PFF passing grade on such throws is tied with Alabama’s Ty Simpson for third-best in the nation.
The problem is that Raiola hasn’t been allowed to sling it downfield as often as he might like. His 6.8-yard average depth of target is a bottom-20 mark in the nation. Just 28.7% of Raiola’s attempts have travelled at least 10 air yards. Raiola has shown that he is fully capable of attacking defenses downfield; he just needs to be allowed to do so.
That task certainly won’t be easy against Michigan, which ranks 12th in the nation in PFF coverage grade and 27th in explosive pass rate allowed. The Wolverines may also be getting star free safety Rod Moore back from injury. Nebraska will have a tough time winning if the Huskers bring the same conservative approach to their passing game as they have the past three weeks.
Predictions
The Wolverines’ run game shines in this game, while Michigan’s defense stalls Raiola and Nebraska’s offense.
Dalton: Michigan 20, Nebraska 16
Nebraska won’t win this game unless it gives Raiola a chance to be the best player on the field. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, Michigan has a better idea of what its identity is. The Wolverines score a tight road victory.
Storyline to know: South Carolina tries to get its season back on track, while Missouri tries to establish itself as a legitimate playoff contender
South Carolina was No. 11 in the AP poll just last week but is now out of the top 25 entirely following a 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt at home. The Gamecocks will try to rejoin the ranked group this Saturday against a Missouri squad that’s looking to start 4-0 for the third straight season.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Dalton): South Carolina’s Rushing offense vs. Missouri’s run defense
The main storyline this week for South Carolina’s offense is whether or not LaNorris Sellers will start at quarterback. Regardless of whether it’s him or a backup option like Luke Doty, the Gamecocks need to be more efficient in the run game than they have in their first three games.
Despite their bevy of rushing options — including Sellers, Rahsul Faison and Oscar Adaway III — the Gamecocks rank just 77th in PFF rushing grade and 116th in yards per carry this season, excluding sacks. A large part of that is due to a struggling offensive line. South Carolina places an even worse 101st in PFF run-blocking grade and 122nd in yards before contact per carry.
That challenge becomes even greater this week against a Missouri outfit that ranks 11th in the nation in PFF run-defense grade. The Tigers have missed just nine tackles in run defense this season. They’re led by an outstanding linebacker group that features West Virginia transfer Josiah Trotter, who currently sits third among all linebackers with a 92.2 run-defense grade.
South Carolina needs to find a way to control the game on the ground and keep Missouri’s red-hot offense off the field. If Sellers is out or compromised in any way, that task only becomes more difficult.
Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Max): Missouri’s run game against South Carolina’s run defense
While Beau Pribula boasts the fourth-best PFF passing grade in the country (90.8), this Missouri offense is still centered around its rushing attack. The Tigers run the ball on 54.5% of their plays, the 14th-highest rate in the Power Four. Running back Ahmad Hardy looks like the early favorite for the Doak Walker Award, as he leads the country in missed tackles forced (28) while leading the Power Four in rushing yards (464) and yards after contact (340). Missouri is also 17th in the nation with a 73.3 PFF run-blocking grade as a team.
South Carolina’s pass defense isn’t nearly as strong as it was last year, placing just 88th in team PFF pass-rush grade and 87th in PFF coverage grade so far. However, Gamecocks have been far better in run defense, sitting 25th in EPA per run. If South Carolina can get Missouri behind the chains, it has a chance of slowing down the Tigers’ red-hot offense.
Predictions
Max: Missouri 27, South Carolina 21
South Carolina doesn’t seem to have many answers in its offense right now outside of LaNorris Sellers putting his Superman cape on. That won’t be enough against a Missouri team that seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now.
Dalton: Missouri 30, South Carolina 20
Missouri’s ability to run and stop the run carries the Tigers to a win over a struggling South Carolina offense.
Storyline to know: A game that could have massive playoff implications
The Big Ten sent four teams to the College Football Playoff last season: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Indiana. Those first three schools currently have the best odds in the country to make the playoff once again, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
If the conference is going to send a fourth school once again to the playoff, the winner of this game will probably be the favorite. Illinois and Indiana are the next-highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten after Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Dalton): Who wins the battle between the tackles?
Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing game garner plenty of spotlight, but the Fighting Illini have been productive on the ground so far this season, particularly between the tackles.
Through Week 3, Illinois leads the nation with a 92.2 PFF rushing grade between the tackles. The Illini also lead the FBS in successful play rate on such runs and rank second in explosive run rate as well. Kaden Feagin, the team’s 255-pound running back, has led the charge with an outstanding 86.3 rushing grade between the tackles while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Conversely, Indiana has stopped inside runs at an elite rate since head coach Curt Cignetti took over last season. Since the start of 2024, Indiana ranks among the top five defenses in PFF run-defense grade, yards per carry allowed and explosive run rate allowed when opponents run between the tackles.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Max): Fernando Mendoza against Illinois’ aggressive defensive philosophy
Illinois’ defensive system is one of the most aggressive in all of college football. The Fighting Illini blitz quarterbacks at the highest rate in the Power Four (60.6%) and play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the country (54.3%).
Fernando Mendoza wields the seventh-best overall PFF grade among FBS quarterbacks (90.5), but he’s faced a soft schedule so far and will be tested this week against the Fighting Illini.
Fernando Mendoza’s PFF Grades by Situation
| Situation | PFF Grade (FBS rank) |
| Blitzed | 75.5 (46th) |
| Not Blitzed | 91.8 (2nd) |
| Man Coverage | 53.0 (144th) |
| Zone Coverage | 93.9 (3rd) |
However, Mendoza was far better against man coverage and the blitz while at California in 2024. He placed 29th in PFF grade against man coverage (79.6) and 19th against the blitz (81.0). He’ll need to perform much more like last year in order to find any sort of success against Illinois.
Predictions
Mendoza finds issues against Illinois’ aggressive defense, and the Fighting Illini pull out a close victory in a game that could prove pivotal for their playoff candidacy.
Dalton: Illinois 20, Indiana 17
Illinois should feel comfortable with its usual defensive gameplan. The Hoosiers are facing their first real test of the season. This could be a defensive slugfest, but the Illini force Mendoza into enough mistakes to score a victory.
Storyline to know: Florida desperately needs to get its season back on track
Florida started the 2025 season as the No. 13 team in the AP poll, the first time it was ranked in the top 25 of the preseason poll in four years. The Gators began their season with a 55-0 victory over an FCS squad in LIU, but then lost their following two games against USF and No. 3 LSU.
With pressure mounting on head coach Billy Napier and a daunting schedule ahead, the Gators need to save their year. The issue for them is that they now go on the road against their rival in Miami, which looks like one of the best teams in the country through three weeks. The Hurricanes already took down sixth-ranked Notre Dame and beat No. 18 USF by 37 points, the same team that upset Florida just one week earlier.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): Florida’s offensive line against Miami’s defensive line
Just about the only thing going right for Florida’s offense is the play up front. The Gators entered the season with our No. 4 offensive line in the country, and that’s held serve so far. They’re tied for third in the country in PFF pass-blocking grade (89.8) and 16th in PFF run-blocking grade (74.0).
Florida’s front five will face its toughest test of the season this week, though, against Miami. The Hurricanes have the second highest-graded defensive line in the country (92.0) so far and are one of two teams in the country to place inside the top five of both team PFF run-defense grade (second) and PFF pass-rush grade (fifth).
Even if the Gators keep the pocket clean, DJ Lagway has to take advantage. His 68.5 PFF passing grade when he isn’t pressured is just 103rd in the country, and his seven turnover-worthy plays in such situations are three more than any other Power Four quarterback. Six of those turnover-worthy plays came this past weekend against LSU, as Lagway struggled mightily with his decision making and accuracy on his way to five interceptions in the loss.
Matchup to watch when Miami has the ball (Dalton): Miami’s offensive line against Florida’s defensive line
Heading into this season, a look ahead to this matchup would’ve featured an elite Miami offensive line squaring off with a stout Florida defensive line in a battle of strengths. Miami’s unit has held up its end of the bargain, while the Gators have yet to find their footing up front, particularly with regard to rushing the passer.
Miami’s offensive line ranks 15th in the FBS with a 77.3 overall PFF grade. The Hurricanes’ production, coupled with Carson Beck’s quick release, has allowed Beck to only be pressured on 12.8% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the FBS. Those clean pockets have permitted Beck to lead the nation with a 79.3% completion rate.
Meanwhile, Florida has struggled to generate pressure despite boasting stars like Caleb Banks and Tyreak Sapp. The Gators rank just 102nd in pass-rush grade this season and have produced the lowest pressure rate in the Power Four at just 19.1%. Florida has also recorded just two sacks through its first three games of the season. The Gators will need to find a way to disrupt Carson Beck in the pocket in order to get back on track this week.
Predictions
Miami is playing like the best team in college football right now, while Florida… Is not. Even if the Gators keep Lagway clean from the Hurricanes’ elite pass rush, it’s highly unlikely he outduels one of the Heisman favorites in Carson Beck.
Miami has fully found its footing early this season, while the Gators aren’t executing offensively. If Florida can’t generate pressure on Carson Beck, the team could be in for a long day.
Storyline to know: Two Big 12 teams looking to re-emerge as contenders in the conference
Neither Arizona State nor Baylor is among the four favorites to win the Big 12 right now, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Both the Sun Devils and Bears are off to 2-1 starts to their respective seasons.
Yet, each of those losses came against non-conference opponents, so the winner of this game is still very much in the Big 12 race and may even crack next week’s top 25.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Dalton): Arizona State’s explosive run game vs. Baylor’s porous run defense
Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devils’ passing game has struggled to find consistency early in the season. One solution to that problem, particularly this week, could be to rely more often on what has been a very efficient rushing attack.
Through its first three games, Arizona State ranks 14th in the nation in PFF rushing grade. Perhaps more impressive is that the Sun Devils lead the FBS in explosive run rate and have forced the fourth-most missed tackles. Leavitt, along with Raleek Brown, Kanye Udoh and Kyson Brown, could form a formidable unit that bullies opponents on the ground.
The problem is those rushing threats haven’t been utilized enough. The Sun Devils rank just 80th in run play percentage this season, which pales in comparison to them sitting 23rd en route to the College Football Playoff in 2024. ASU would be wise to increase its run usage this week, as Baylor’s 56.8 team PFF run-defense grade is the 11th-lowest mark in the nation through Week 3.
Matchup to watch when Baylor has the ball (Max): Sawyer Robertson against Arizona State’s zone coverage
The philosophy of Arizona State defensive coordinator Brian Ward is to sit back in zone coverage and hardly ever send a blitz at all. The Sun Devils ran Cover 3 at the fifth-highest rate in the Power Four last year (40.4%) while blitzing at the sixth-lowest rate in that same group (24.7%). This season, ASU has sent a blitz at the lowest rate in the Power Four (20.2%).
Sawyer Robertson’s box score numbers are impressive. The redshirt senior has the second-most passing yards in the country (1,070) and is tied for third in touchdowns (10). But, his 65.1 PFF passing grade is 99th in the FBS, and he’s just 94th in passing grade when he isn’t blitzed (63.4). And against zone coverage since 2024, he’s accrued as many turnover-worthy plays (10) as big-time throws.
Robertson will need to do a better job of finding the soft spots in zone coverage this week. He should have the time in the pocket to do so, as the Sun Devils often sit back with seven or more defenders in coverage.
Predictions
Max: Arizona State 31, Baylor 28
In what could be a high-scoring affair, the Sun Devils rely on their rushing attack to pull off the victory, while Sawyer Robertson could have some issues with Arizona State’s zone defense.
Dalton: Baylor 34, Arizona State 27
Baylor’s depth of weaponry and Sam Leavitt’s refusal to play within structure make the difference in a high-scoring Bears win.
