Colts’ Week 2 QB Analysis: Is this real life?

_{Thanks to the project, and for the timely sources of data.}

_{For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)}

A really good 2nd game from Daniel Jones almost has me believing . . . almost.

HOW WELL?

His 0.29 EPA per play ranks him as the 8th-best QB of the week and the 2nd-best across Weeks 1 and 2 combined. His 57.1% success rate (3rd-best) shows that his value isn’t coming from a few lucky, high-value plays, but from consistent, successful execution. After two weeks, he leads all quarterbacks with the #1 success rate.

I was disappointed with the last few series since he couldn’t move the ball when we really needed a score. But I guess it worked out in the end—doesn’t everybody get a game-saving fluke penalty?

Looking at the big 4 QB stats, he wasn’t quite as good as last week, but still well within a top 10 QB category.

HOW FAR?

He’s completing passes and piling up first downs. The solid blue line shows how his yardage efficiency tailed off toward the end of the game—which isn’t great—but quarters 1–3 were outstanding. A 68.6% completion rate with 9.7 yards per attempt? Gotta love it.

Passing depth was up this week (6th-longest average attempt), and the high completion rate translated into long gains as well (7th-longest yards per completion).

So far this year, he hasn’t been relying on short passes for his completions—a clear departure from his production with the Giants.

TO WHO?

For the second week in a row, he spread the ball around really well. I’m especially excited that the Colts finally seem to realize—yes, tight ends are allowed to catch the ball.

For the year, Warren leads in both targets and yards.

This is a good spread: most receivers are producing higher-than-average EPA per target, with Taylor almost off the chart… almost.

HOW ACCURATE?

Woohoo! Two games with above-average accuracy. I’ll say it again: a QB has to complete passes, and Jones is doing exactly that.

HOW FAST?

His time to throw was a bit slower, but his average attempt was longer too, so that makes sense. He’s still getting the ball out faster than the average QB, and given his depth of target, he’s making quick decisions.

TO WHERE?

He had success at all depths and across the entire field. Beautiful.

He clearly favors the left side (51.6% of his attempts this year). That’s probably not ideal, but so far it seems to be working.

DASHBOARD

There’s a lot of green in this chart.

To summarize week 2:

• The Colts’ run game took a step back this week—which actually worked in their favor, as they leaned on the pass (15th ARSR, 7th EDP).
• Jones faced much more pressure, but he responded by getting rid of the ball faster, scrambling more often, and throwing it away when necessary—all while still avoiding sacks (3rd PR%, 18th TIP, 10th SCR%, 17th TA%, 29th SCK%).
• He threw long and completed long (6th aDOT, 3rd AY/C).
• Just like last week, his accuracy stood out, boosting yards after catch and driving impressive yardage efficiency (9th CPOE, 10th YACOE, 7th AYP/A).
• His ability to avoid sacks without completely abandoning passing plays (22nd AA%, 29th SCK%) pushed his efficiency to 8.6 yards per dropback (4th NY/D). Designed runs brought that down slightly to 7.9 yards per play overall (8th NY/P).
• With that kind of yardage efficiency, moving the chains was easy—but it didn’t translate into passing touchdowns (2nd in first down rate, 19th in TD rate).
• Most importantly, he kept the “no turnovers” streak alive, which helped his EPA remain high (25th TO%, 8th EPA/d).

So far, Jones has benefited from better protection and quicker processing, and it’s directly translating into a highly efficient passing offense.

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