Projected NFL win totals and best bets after week 2
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Win totals used to lock once the season began, but that’s no longer the case in 2025. Sportsbooks now offer these markets throughout the year, giving bettors the chance to find value beyond the preseason.
Using PFF’s season-long simulation results, we’ll highlight a few teams where the market and our projections diverge — and where there may be betting value to exploit.
| Team | Strength of Schedule Remaining | Projections Avg. Wins | DraftKings Win Total | Over | Under |
| ARZ | 18 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 115 | -140 |
| ATL | 28 | 7.6 | 7.5 | -125 | 105 |
| BLT | 16 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 105 | -125 |
| BUF | 31 | 12.5 | 12.5 | -115 | -105 |
| CAR | 26 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 115 | -140 |
| CHI | 5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 105 | -125 |
| CIN | 11 | 9.4 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| CLV | 8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -130 | 110 |
| DAL | 12 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 115 | -140 |
| DEN | 10 | 9.4 | 9.5 | -135 | 115 |
| DET | 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | -140 | 115 |
| GB | 13 | 11.8 | 11.5 | -130 | 110 |
| HST | 15 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 100 | -120 |
| IND | 19 | 8.7 | 7.5 | -140 | 115 |
| JAX | 20 | 8.6 | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| KC | 9 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 105 | -125 |
| LA | 21 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 115 | -140 |
| LAC | 17 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 110 | -130 |
| LV | 14 | 8.2 | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| MIA | 22 | 7.2 | 6.5 | -110 | -110 |
| MIN | 1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| NE | 30 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 135 | -165 |
| NO | 29 | 4.9 | 4.5 | -120 | 100 |
| NYG | 4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
| NYJ | 25 | 6.3 | 5.5 | -155 | 130 |
| PHI | 3 | 11.1 | 10.5 | -160 | 135 |
| PIT | 6 | 8.8 | 8.5 | -150 | 125 |
| SEA | 23 | 7.5 | 7.5 | -125 | 105 |
| SF | 32 | 10.8 | 10.5 | -105 | -115 |
| TB | 27 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 105 | -125 |
| TEN | 24 | 5.8 | 5.5 | -115 | -105 |
| WAS | 7 | 9.1 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
Best bets
Baltimore Ravens
Despite ranking as our No. 2 team, the Ravens still show value on the under for their season win total. They dropped a tough opener to the Bills, blowing a 15-point fourth-quarter lead. And while they’re heavy favorites (-11.5) this week against the Browns, a difficult four-game stretch looms ahead (Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Rams) before their Week 7 bye.
Our model projects Baltimore to finish with exactly 11 wins, making this roughly a 7% ROI play.
Bet: Ravens under 11.5 wins (-111 at Rivers or SugarHouse)
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were the recipient of the largest upgrade to their power rating after Week 1.
Our projections diverge from the market, with the Colts now expected to approach nine wins, aided by the league’s 13th-easiest remaining schedule. They enter Week 2 as slight underdogs at home to Denver, and if Daniel Jones and company can build on their momentum against the Broncos’ defense, they’ll be well-positioned in the race to reach eight wins.
Bet: Colts over 7.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns
While the Browns are showing value right now at over 4.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings), there’s a very realistic chance Cleveland shows value at over 4.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings), but bettors should be prepared for a potentially rough start.
With upcoming matchups against Baltimore, Green Bay and Detroit, there’s a realistic path to a 0-4 record before heading to London. That stretch is already baked into the price — and potentially overpriced — which creates value now. There may be another opportunity to buy in a few weeks, once the schedule softens post-international trip.
Bet: Browns over 4.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)
