College Football Week 3 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the biggest games
By
Dalton Wasserman
and
Max Chadwick
- Georgia–Tennessee is the showstopper: The two SEC rivals square off in a big early test between top-15 squads.
- Texas A&M-Notre Dame could determine the Playoff: The Fighting Irish look to avoid suffering two losses in their first two contests.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 33 minutes
Storyline to know: Two programs looking to start Big 12 slate on the right foot
Colorado and Houston both open their conference slate against each other on Friday night.
The Buffaloes are currently 1-1 on the season after losing to Georgia Tech by seven in Week 1 and defeating Delaware in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Cougars are off to their first 2-0 start in seven years after taking down Stephen F. Austin and Rice. Considering both of these programs could be on the cusp of bowl eligibility at the end of the season, this game could be pivotal in extending their respective seasons.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Ryan Staub seize the starting quarterback job?
The biggest question entering the Buffaloes’ 2025 season was who would replace Shedeur Sanders at quarterback: Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter or true freshman Julian Lewis? But entering Week 3, Colorado will have a different player start on Friday night: redshirt sophomore Ryan Staub.
While Salter started and played every snap in the Week 1 loss to Georgia Tech, all three gunslingers saw action in Colorado’s 31-7 win over Delaware this past week. And of the three, Staub was easily the most impressive. He completed seven of his 11 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns.
Colorado’s Quarterbacks Against Delaware
| Name | Dropbacks | PFF Passing Grade | Big-time throws/Turnover-worthy plays |
| Kaidon Salter | 23 | 57.3 | 0/0 |
| Ryan Staub | 13 | 85.5 | 3/1 |
| Julian Lewis | 5 | 68.7 | 0/0 |
Staub will make the second start of his career on Friday night against Houston. It appears the Buffaloes’ quarterback situation is still fluid, so he’ll need a strong performance in order to keep the job.
Matchup to watch when Houston has the ball (Dalton): Conner Weigman vs. Colorado’s man coverage
Since Deion Sanders took over as its head coach, Colorado has been a team stacked with talented cornerbacks. As such, they Buffaloes have always played a very high rate of man coverage on the outside.
This season is no exception, as the Buffaloes rank third in the FBS with a 62% man coverage rate on defense. Their two best coverage defenders have been outside cornerbacks DJ McKinney and RJ Johnson, who respectively boast 70.9 and 80.7 PFF man coverage grades so far this season.
Meanwhile, Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman has struggled to throw into man coverage throughout his career. When facing man coverage, Weigman has recorded a 57.0 PFF passing grade and completed just 45.9% of his passes. He’s also recorded just five big time throws while committing eight turnover-worthy plays in those scenarios.
Despite lopsided scores against lesser opponents, Houston’s passing game has struggled to find traction. Colorado’s aggressive style of defense won’t make things easier for it.
Predictions
Even with a quarterback controversy, the Buffaloes are able to pull off a road victory in their Big 12 opener thanks to a strong performance from their pass defense.
Dalton: Houston 20, Colorado 16
This could be a low-scoring slugfest with both teams leaning on their secondaries to keep them in it. Houston hasn’t looked great on offense against lesser opponents, but Colorado is taking a major gamble with Staub at quarterback.
Storyline to know: Can Clemson pull it together?
Despite entering the year as PFF’s preseason No. 1 team in the country, Clemson has looked incredibly shaky through the first two weeks. The Tigers opened their season with a home loss to then-No. 9 LSU and trailed by 13 at halftime to Troy this past week before mounting a comeback in the second half for a 27-16 victory.
Clemson now enters a pivotal Week 3 on the road against a Georgia Tech squad that’s currently ranked in the PFF Top 25 after a 2-0 start.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): Clemson offensive line vs. Georgia Tech defensive line
Clemson’s offense has struggled to find its footing for several reasons, but the most important one is that its offensive line has not played well. Despite returning the majority of their primary contributors up front, the Tigers’ offensive line ranks 103rd in the FBS in PFF grade through Week 2.
The unit has struggled to pick up blitzes in pass protection, which has led to Cade Klubnik releasing the ball sooner than he’d like. The Tigers have also severely struggled to create holes in the run game. Only two teams in the Power Four have earned a worse Impact Run Block percentage so far than Clemson, which currently sits at just 18.6%.
Led by defensive tackle Jordan Van den Berg and his 84.2 PFF run-defense grade, Georgia Tech’s defensive line has a chance to be impactful this week. Middle linebacker Kyle Efford is a tackling machine who owns a 78.1 PFF run-defense grade so far this season. If defensive linemen Akelo Stone, Christian Garrett and Brayden Manley can continue their solid pass-rush production, Georgia Tech could win the trench battle against Clemson this week.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Max): How close to 100% will Haynes King be?
Georgia Tech starting quarterback Haynes King missed Georgia Tech’s 59-12 win over Gardner-Webb this past weekend due to a nagging lower-body injury. Considering how much King relied on his legs in the win over Colorado, that’s understandable. The redshirt senior ran 20 times for 156 yards and three touchdowns against the Buffaloes with another six first downs coming on the ground.
This new injury is unrelated to a shoulder problem that had already been bothering King. While backup Aaron Philo is a talented passer, he doesn’t provide the dynamism as an athlete that King does. Head coach Brent Key said that he expects King to practice this week. If he’s out or not close to 100%, that’s a distinct advantage for Clemson’s defense.
Predictions
Max: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 21
With King banged up, the Tigers’ defense shines, while the offense finds more balance against the Yellow Jacket defense.
Dalton: Georgia Tech 27, Clemson 24
Clemson’s lack of offensive identity is extremely concerning. As long as Haynes King is healthy, Georgia Tech is well aware of its identity. The Yellow Jackets pull off the upset at home to send the Tigers into a tailspin.
Storyline to know: How does Alabama respond?
The Crimson Tide entered the season as the No. 4 team in the country in PFF’s preseason ranking before being upset by Florida State in Week 1, losing 31-17. It was a game in which Alabama entered Tallahassee as 13.5-point favorites.
The Crimson Tide responded nicely to the embarrassing loss in Week 2 with a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe. But with all respect to the Warhawks, this week’s matchup with a 2-0 Wisconsin outfit will give a clearer picture of just where Alabama stands right now.
Matchup to watch when Wisconsin has the ball (Max): Will Billy Edwards Jr. be ready to go?
Wisconsin starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. suffered a sprained knee in Week 1 against Miami (OH) that kept him out of the rest of that game as well as the Badgers’ win over Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Backup quarterback Danny O’Neil has been up-and-down in his absence, posting a 38.4 PFF passing grade during the rest of that Miami game before an 89.6 mark against Middle Tennessee.
Whoever plays quarterback on Saturday should be prepared to utilize their legs more than usual. Tommy Castellanos ran for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Crimson Tide in Week 1. In three of Alabama’s four losses last season, the opposing quarterback ran for at least 55 yards. Edwards averaged about 24 yards per game on the ground last year at Maryland, while O’Neil sat at 23 rush yards per game at San Diego State. If Edwards’ injury significantly hampers his mobility, that’s a big advantage for Alabama’s defense.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Can Wisconsin find a way to pressure Ty Simpson?
Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson has quietly been a bright spot through some turbulent times in Tuscaloosa. His playing style stands in stark contrast to Alabama’s previous starter, Jalen Milroe, but he has succeeded in his own way so far this season.
The most positive aspect of Simpson’s performance this year has been his ability to make throws when given adequate time in the pocket. Simpson has recorded an 89.6 clean-pocket PFF passing grade, 13th-best in the nation, through his first two games while throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions in those scenarios. His accuracy has stood out, as he’s recorded an 88.1% adjusted completion rate in clean pockets, eighth-best among qualified quarterbacks.
Simpson will face a new challenge this week against Wisconsin, which currently ranks 10th in the nation in PFF pass-rush grade. The caveat is that the Badgers’ opponents have been Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee. The Badgers pressured Alabama’s quarterbacks on just 25% of their dropbacks in this matchup last season. If they can’t improve upon that mark, Simpson could be in for a big day.
Predictions
Alabama’s defense shows why it was such a highly-regarded unit in the preseason, and the Crimson Tide get their season back on track for now with a convincing victory.
Dalton: Alabama 27, Wisconsin 13
Wisconsin’s quarterback uncertainty and Alabama’s dominant showing in this matchup last year give the Crimson Tide a decided edge. Wisconsin’s best path to winning is disrupting Ty Simpson, but Alabama’s offensive line prevents that from happening.
Storyline to know: A massive SEC opener for both teams
Both Georgia and Tennessee open their conference slates on Saturday in what’s being billed as the biggest game of Week 3. Knoxville, Tennessee will host ESPN’s College GameDay as these two top-15 squads square off.
The Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start after taking care of business against Marshall and Austin Peay, while the Volunteers also sport a 2-0 record after defeating Syracuse and East Tennessee State. The winner of this game emerges as one of the favorites in the SEC and one of the top teams in all of college football.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Will Gunner Stockton be able to attack Tennessee vertically?
Tennessee’s three losses last season all had one commonality. Those three matchups against Arkansas, Georgia and Ohio State accounted for their three lowest team PFF coverage grades of the season.
Those three programs were able to attack Tennessee’s defense vertically down the field. In those three games, the Volunteers’ opponents earned a 94.5 PFF passing grade on 10-plus yard throws while completing 58.5% of such passes. Tennessee allowed 10 big-time throws in those three contests while allowing just five in their other 10 games.
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton hasn’t been asked to throw downfield so far in his career. Across 141 career pass attempts, Stockton’s average depth of target sits at just 6.4 yards. While he has been efficient in beating lesser opponents this season, he owns a 5.1-yard average depth of target and has yet to make a big-time throw.
Stockton’s fate in his first road start could be determined by whether or not he takes a more aggressive approach.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Max): Will Kirby Smart continue to have Josh Heupel’s number?
Tennessee’s offensive production has exploded ever since it hired head coach Josh Heupel in 2021. The Volunteers have averaged 39 points per game under Heupel and are sixth in America in yards per play (6.6) and eighth in EPA per play (0.132) in that stretch. This season doesn’t appear to be any different despite losing so much offensive production from last year’s team, as Tennessee is currently third in the country with a 91.0 offensive PFF grade so far.
Whenever Heupel’s offenses have faced Kirby Smart and Georgia, though, it’s a different story. The Volunteers average just 14 points in those matchups and have never scored more than 17 points against the Bulldogs. Tennessee’s offensive line has struggled mightily with Georgia in those games, posting just a 39.9 PFF pass-blocking grade with a 34.8% pressure rate allowed. That doesn’t give the Volunteers time to hit the patented vertical throws in Heupel’s offense.
Smart tends to be more aggressive when defending against Heupel’s offenses, playing Cover-1 29.7% of the time compared to just 16.1% in all other games since 2021. He trusts his corners to win on the outside in man coverage — which, in turn, frees up more defenders to get after the quarterback.
Predictions
Heupel’s offense finally puts up 20 points against Georgia, but it’s still not enough as the Bulldogs squeak by with a massive road victory.
Dalton: Georgia 19, Tennessee 16
Georgia forces Joey Aguilar into enough mistakes to win a defensive slugfest.
Storyline to know: The final Backyard Brawl for a few years
Pittsburgh and West Virginia will meet on Saturday for the 108th time in the Backyard Brawl, one of the fiercest rivalries in college football. The two schools played each other every season from 1944 to 2011, before the Panthers left the Big East for the ACC and the Mountaineers departed for the Big 12.
After an 11-year hiatus, the programs have met in each of the last three seasons as part of their respective non-conference slates. But, this year’s game will be the final time that Pitt and WVU square off until the 2029 season.
Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Max): Can Eli Holstein make the throws to win this game?
Even though Pittsburgh has only played Duquesne and Central Michigan so far, quarterback Eli Holstein has looked relatively average as a passer despite strong box score numbers. His 66.6 PFF passing grade is currently 80th in America. Holstein has committed three turnover-worthy plays compared to just two big-time throws.
Pitt’s star offensive player is running back Desmond Reid, but he may have a tough time in this game as a runner. He ran for just 26 yards against the Mountaineers last year, averaging 2.4 yards per carry in his worst performance of the season. West Virginia’s run defense looks strong once again this season, placing inside the top-10 of both PFF run-defense grade (91.7) and yards before contact per attempt allowed (0.1).
However, the Mountaineers are just 87th in PFF coverage grade (67.9) after having the fifth-worst coverage grade in the country last season. There will likely be opportunities for Holstein to make some big plays in this game — he just needs to hit the throws.
Matchup to watch when West Virginia has the ball (Dalton): Who will step up in Jaheim White’s absence at running back?
Rich Rodriguez is back at the helm for West Virginia, which means the team’s goal is to run the football at an elite rate. So far, the Mountaineers rank 27th in run play percentage, 19th in yards per carry and 10th in explosive run rate. The biggest challenge for opposing defenses is staying disciplined against a team that runs read options at a higher rate than any other in the nation.
But, the Mountaineers’ rushing attack suffered a massive blow last week, as they lost star running back Jahiem White for the remainder of the season due to injury. White has been the team’s lead running back in each of the past two seasons and forced 10 missed tackles across just 24 carries this year.
White’s injury puts fellow running backs Clay Ash and Cyncir Bowers in the spotlight. Ash is a former walk-on with nine career carries. Similarly, Bowers is a transfer from Iowa Central Community College who did have a 1,000-yard season in 2024, but has barely gotten his feet wet at the FBS level.
West Virginia’s inexperienced set of running backs face an enormous challenge this week against a tenacious Pittsburgh linebacker unit. Led by standout Kyle Louis, the group currently ranks ninth in the nation in PFF run-defense grade.
Predictions
Max: Pittsburgh 28, West Virginia 20
In the final Backyard Brawl for four years, Pittsburgh wins for a second straight time thanks to its strong defense and a couple big throws from Holstein.
Dalton: Pittsburgh 23, West Virginia 13
West Virginia will have a hard time overcoming the loss of Jahiem White — especially this week, while facing the Panthers’ outstanding linebacker unit. Pat Narduzzi’s defense makes the difference in a road victory.
No. 18 USF Bulls at No. 5 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (4:30 PM ET, The CW Network)
Storyline to know: Can USF topple its third giant in as many weeks?
The Bulls are the biggest Cinderella story in college football right now. USF started its season by dominating No. 25 Boise State 34-7, a school that made the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals last season and was the favorite to represent the Group of Five in the 12-team field once again this year.
That game made the Bulls a contender in the Group of Five playoff race, but this past weekend made them the clear favorite. USF went on the road and beat No. 13 Florida 18-16 despite entering the game as 17.5-point underdogs. The Bulls are now ranked for the first time in seven years and can skyrocket even higher in the polls if they can take down a top-five team in Miami this weekend.
Matchup to watch when USF has the ball (Max): USF’s offensive line against Miami’s defensive line
Miami’s defensive line was the biggest reason why it was able to take down No. 6 Notre Dame in Week 1. The Hurricanes finished with a 63.9% pass-rush win rate against the Fighting Irish and held star running back Jeremiyah Love to just 46 yards on 11 attempts. Through two weeks, Miami has the third highest-graded defensive line in America. Projected top-10 pick Rueben Bain Jr. has been the star of that unit, as he’s the only edge defender in the country with 90-plus PFF grades as both a pass rusher and run defender.
USF’s offensive line has performed admirably in pass protection, posting a top-40 PFF pass-blocking grade through two weeks. That includes a 77.7 mark against Florida, PFF’s No. 4 defensive line entering the season. The Bulls’ run game has been a completely different story, though, as the team currently boasts the 10th worst PFF run-blocking grade in all of college football.
USF’s ability to keep quarterback Byrum Brown upright and get any push in the run game against this elite Miami defensive line could be the difference between the Bulls pulling off a third straight upset or not.
Matchup to watch when Miami has the ball (Dalton): Can USF find any semblance of a pass rush?
USF’s defensive improvement has been the biggest reason it has earned two victories against ranked opponents. The Bulls will need that unit to be stout again if they are going to pull off another upset this week.
The Bulls’ work in run defense has been serviceable, while their secondary has played outstanding coverage given the quality of their opponents. However, they lacked any semblance of a pass rush against the Florida Gators last week. They recorded a lowly 51.4 PFF pass-rush grade while pressuring DJ Lagway just three times.
The unit could be in for a long day if it doesn’t find a way to disrupt Carson Beck in the pocket. Since the start of 2023, Beck has recorded a 92.8 PFF passing grade when given a clean pocket. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 such dropbacks, that grade ranks sixth in the FBS behind Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders, Caleb Williams, Cam Ward and Jayden Daniels.
USF could see some defensive regression if it can’t find a way to disrupt Beck’s timing.
Predictions
Max: Miami 31, USF 21
The Hurricanes put an end to the Bulls’ Cinderella run as USF’s offensive line struggles to hold up against Bain and company. Even with the loss, the Bulls remain the favorite for the Group of Five playoff spot as they head into American Conference play.
Dalton: Miami 30, USF 14
USF’s defense is significantly improved this season, but its lack of a pass rush will be more of an issue against Carson Beck than it was last week against Florida. Beck makes the difference in a convincing win for the Hurricanes.
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 17 Ole Miss Rebels (7 PM ET, ESPN)
Storyline to know: A pair of 2-0 SEC teams square off
Ole Miss and Arkansas will meet for the 72nd time this Saturday, and each is 2-0 to start the 2025 season. The Rebels beat Georgia State in Week 1 before taking down Kentucky this past weekend in their SEC opener. On the other hand, the Razorbacks open conference play this Saturday after defeating Alabama A&M and Arkansas State.
The two have split the last 10 games of this rivalry, with Ole Miss winning the last two contests. If Arkansas can get revenge this season, it may enter the top-25 for the first time in three years.
Matchup to watch when Arkansas has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss contain Taylen Green?
Green entered 2025 as a top-15 quarterback in the country following a strong first season at Arkansas. His 22 big-time throws tied for ninth-most in the Power Four, and his 453 rushing yards after contact were the fifth-most.
It’s only been two games against subpar competition, but Green looks even better as a redshirt senior. His 91.5 overall PFF grade is fourth among all signal-callers in America, while his 88.6 PFF rushing grade is nearly seven points higher than any other quarterback in the country. His 202 rushing yards are the most of every Power Four quarterback, while his 10 passing touchdowns are tied for the most in the country.
Ole Miss has yet to allow 25 rushing yards to any quarterback this season and has a top-35 PFF coverage grade in college football (81.1). However, the Rebels have yet to play a quarterback as dynamic as Green.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): How long can Lane Kiffin protect Austin Simmons from himself?
Austin Simmons’ performance in his first two starts has been a bit uneven. Even as Lane Kiffin has deployed play action on 65.6% of dropbacks, he hasn’t been able to prevent mistakes from Simmons in the passing game.
When Simmons hasn’t been afforded the luxury of play action, he has recorded a 29.2 PFF passing grade, which is the third-lowest in the FBS. In total, Simmons has committed five turnover-worthy plays through the Rebels’ first two games, tied for the most in the SEC.
Though it hasn’t played strong opponents, Arkansas ranks 14th in the nation in PFF coverage grade through Week 2. Anything close to that performance would be a significant improvement from last year’s outfit that ranked 119th in coverage grade and allowed 63 points to Ole Miss. Simmons’ ball security will be crucial to Ole Miss’ success in this game.
Predictions
Max: Arkansas 31, Ole Miss 30
Green proves too much for Ole Miss’ defense to handle, and the Razorbacks pull off a major upset on the road over the Rebels.
Dalton: Arkansas 28, Ole Miss 24
This game comes down to two rollercoaster quarterbacks with a penchant for big plays and big mistakes. Green has been in these spots before, though, and the Razorbacks’ revamped secondary should look better than it did in last year’s matchup.
Storyline to know: Notre Dame’s back is against the wall
Notre Dame started its season with a 27-24 loss to then-No. 10 Miami (FL) in Week 1 before having a bye this past weekend.
The Fighting Irish play their second-straight top-20 team this weekend in Texas A&M. After this week, Notre Dame doesn’t have another currently ranked team on the rest of its schedule. While it’s still possible, if not probable, that a 10-2 Fighting Irish squad will make it into the College Football Playoff, they also would be playing with fire at that point with no marquee wins.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): Texas A&M’s offensive line against Notre Dame’s defensive line
While the story of Notre Dame’s loss to Miami was the struggles of its offensive line, the Fighting Irish’s defensive line also had a subpar showing against the Hurricanes. Notre Dame generated only an 18.8% pressure rate against Miami, its lowest in three years.
To be fair to the Fighting Irish, the Hurricanes entered the year with one of our top-10 offensive lines in America. The problem for Notre Dame is that Texas A&M sat third in that ranking after bringing back all six of the players who played 300-plus snaps in 2024. The Aggies have looked the part so far, placing ninth in team PFF pass-blocking grade (85.6).
An interesting development through two weeks is how little Texas A&M has relied on its run game. The Aggies have only run the ball on 38.4% of their plays, the seventh-lowest rate in the Power Four. Considering their deep stable of running backs and quarterback Marcel Reed’s athleticism, that may change going forward.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Dalton): Notre Dame’s offensive fine vs. Texas A&M’s defensive line
In order to win this game and redeem its playoff hopes, Notre Dame needs to play significantly better along the offensive line. That unit earned a 52.6 PFF grade in Week 1 against Miami, which is the second-worst grade the Fighting Irish have received up front since 2014. In fact, their 25.1 PFF pass-blocking grade was the worst for a Notre Dame offensive line in PFF history.
That group will be facing a defensive front that is loaded with solid run stoppers, including defensive tackles Albert Regis and Tyler Onyedim as well as star linebackers Taurean York and Scooby Williams. In pass protection, the Irish have to contend with edge defender Cassius Howell, who has earned an 86.6 PFF pass-rush grade while tallying eight pressures and three sacks in his first two games.
Schematics be damned, Notre Dame’s playoff chances will be on the brink of extinction if its offensive line doesn’t play well.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 24, Texas A&M 23
The Fighting Irish get their season back on track at home with a close victory over the Aggies by riding Jeremiyah Love against what’s been a shaky Texas A&M run defense.
Dalton: Texas A&M 23, Notre Dame 20
Notre Dame needs to be significantly better in the trenches if it is to win this game. The Aggies’ offense is in a much better position with Marcel Reed as its established quarterback this season. Texas A&M gets revenge in a rematch of a great game from last season.
Storyline to know: Florida is desperate for a massive victory
Following an 8-5 campaign in 2024, Florida entered Year 4 of the Billy Napier era with College Football Playoff aspirations. The Gators returned plenty of talent from last year’s team, including sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway. Florida entered the season No. 15 in the AP poll, the first time it was ranked in the preseason poll in four years.
Those playoff hopes were quickly dashed in Week 2 when the Gators were upset at home by an unranked team at the time in USF. Florida is staring down the barrel of one of the hardest remaining schedules in college football, which starts this weekend on the road against third-ranked LSU. Another loss would put Florida at 1-2 and increase the pressure on Napier.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Dalton): Will LSU DC Blake Baker continue to apply extra pressure?
LSU can point to the additions it made in the secondary regarding the improvements the team has undergone in pass defense. Virginia Tech transfer cornerback Mansoor Delane ranks seventh at the position with a 84.8 PFF coverage grade so far, and Houston transfer safety A.J. Haulcy has earned a solid 74.7 PFF coverage grade as well.
The biggest difference in its pass defense, though, has been the philosophical changes made by defensive coordinator Blake Baker. LSU has become much more aggressive with regard to its pressure packages. After ranking just 52nd in pass blitz rate last season, the Tigers own the ninth-highest pass blitz rate in the FBS in 2025.
When the Tigers send heat, opposing quarterbacks have been held to a 38.5 PFF passing grade while completing just 16 of their 36 passes. The Tigers’ ability to apply pressure was a big reason they held Cade Klubnik and Clemson to just 10 points.
Florida quarterback DJ Lagway owns an 80.4 PFF passing grade against the blitz in his career, which is significantly higher than his 67.6 PFF passing grade against a standard rush. Lagway will need to find answers against pressure in what could be his toughest test yet.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): Can Florida put Garrett Nussmeier under pressure?
Heading into 2025, the biggest strength of Florida’s defense was its defensive line, while the biggest question mark for LSU’s offense was its offensive line. The Gators entered the season with PFF’s No. 4 defensive line in the country, while four starters along the Tigers’ offensive line were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft.
So far through two weeks, those two seem to have flipped. Florida is just 74th in team PFF pass-rush grade despite facing an FCS team in Long Island and USF. On the flip side, LSU is 31st in team PFF pass-blocking grade, even though its first game was against PFF’s No. 1 defensive line in Clemson.
A key part in that win over the Tigers was how quickly quarterback Garrett Nussmeier got rid of the football. His average time to throw in that game was a blistering 2.09 seconds, hardly ever giving Clemson’s defensive line a chance to get home. He may employ a similar strategy against the Gators to help his offensive line as much as possible.
Predictions
The Tigers hand the Gators their second straight loss as Garrett Nussmeier finds quick answers for Florida’s pressure. DJ Lagway could have issues figuring out defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s exotic blitz packages.
LSU’s improved defense and Nussmeier’s ability to manufacture offense provide the Tigers a victory, while the Gators are left reeling heading into the meat of their SEC schedule.
Storyline to know: Trap game for South Carolina?
South Carolina opens up its SEC slate on Saturday night against Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks have a 16-game win streak over the Commodores that dates back to the 2009 season, but they can’t overlook this year’s game.
Vanderbilt is 2-0 so far and most recently beat Virginia Tech on the road by 24 points off a second-half explosion. For reference, South Carolina beat the Hokies at a neutral site by 13 points the week before.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Can Vanderbilt create more explosive plays than it did in last year’s matchup?
Vanderbilt has become one of the most captivating teams to watch since the start of last season due to an exciting offense that creates explosive plays on the ground and through the air. However, when the team faced South Carolina, that explosiveness dissipated.
The Gamecocks held Vanderbilt to just seven points in their victory last season while allowing just eight rushing yards before contact and three explosive runs. All three of those runs came via quarterback Diego Pavia. They also managed to pressure Pavia on 51.4% of his dropbacks, which didn’t allow him to take shots downfield as often as he’d like.
South Carolina is replacing a lot of departed players in its front seven, but the Gamecocks have managed to rank 23rd in PFF run-defense grade so far as a team. That will be key in stopping Vanderbilt’s dynamic rushing attack.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): Can Vanderbilt contain LaNorris Sellers within the pocket?
Although it’s only been two weeks, Vanderbilt’s pass defense seems to have taken a step forward. After placing 90th in team PFF pass-rush grade and 97th in PFF coverage grade in 2024, the Commodores are now 25th and 20th in those respective metrics this year. They’re one of seven schools in America who are in the top 25 for both.
One issue Vanderbilt had this past weekend was containing Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones. He ran 10 times for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Commodores, with 49 of those yards coming after contact. That could present a big problem, as LaNorris Sellers was second among Power Four quarterbacks last year with 581 yards after contact. The Heisman hopeful has already created five explosive runs through two games (10th in FBS).
If Vanderbilt can contain his rushing ability, though, there’s an avenue for its defense to have success. South Carolina’s offense has been far from efficient through two weeks and has placed outside the top-60 in every aspect of PFF grading.
South Carolina‘s 2025 Offensive Grading
| Aspect | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Overall | 64.7 (102nd) |
| Passing | 62.9 (96th) |
| Rushing | 73.6 (74th) |
| Receiving | 63.0 (89th) |
| Pass blocking | 71.6 (62nd) |
| Run blocking | 54.1 (108th) |
Predictions
Max: South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 24
In a game that could go down to the wire, the Gamecocks escape with a victory thanks to some heroics from Sellers.
Dalton: South Carolina 24, Vanderbilt 17
This game should be closer than last year’s matchup given Vanderbilt’s experience on offense. Sellers and the Gamecocks’ offense should find just enough rhythm, though, to score a home victory.
Storyline to know: The return of Darian Mensah
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah makes his return to Tulane this Saturday, the school he transferred from this offseason after the Blue Devils made him a godfather NIL offer for a reported $8 million over two years.
He and Duke are looking to bounce back this weekend after losing to No. 11 Illinois 45-19 in Week 2, a game in which the Blue Devils turned the ball over four times. Likewise, Tulane is looking for a signature victory over its former quarterback as one of the top Group of Five playoff contenders.
Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Max): How will Jon Sumrall defend his former quarterback?
Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has a distinct advantage against Mensah that no other opposing coach has: He knows all of his strengths and weaknesses after coaching him for a full season.
Mensah has been outstanding this year when defenses give him time to work in the pocket. His 93.8 PFF passing grade when kept clean is second among all quarterbacks in America, and his 91.5 PFF passing grade when defenses don’t blitz him is third. Yet, he has far more issues when defenses speed him up, placing 101st in PFF passing grade under pressure (40.2) and 42nd when defenses blitz him (73.7).
Tulane was 34th in blitz rate last year (40.3%) which helped it rank 31st in pressure rate (35.8%). Sumrall may dial it up even more this week against Mensah.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Dalton): Jake Retzlaff vs. Manny Diaz’s blitz packages
Manny Diaz and his Duke defense specialize in wreaking havoc on quarterbacks in obvious passing situations. Since the start of last season, Duke has recorded the 25th-highest pass blitz rate in the FBS. The Blue Devils have pressured opposing quarterbacks an impressive 42.1% of the time in that span when they’ve sent a blitz.
Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff has struggled mightily against blitzes throughout his career. Retzlaff has earned just a 44.4 PFF passing grade against the blitz since rising to the FBS ranks in 2023. He has produced just two big time throws and 19 turnover-worthy plays in those circumstances.
Tulane ranks just 75th in the nation in PFF pass-blocking grade so far, and the Green Wave places 86th in that category when opponents send a blitz. Tulane would be wise to avoid obvious passing situations in this game.
Predictions
The Blue Devils bounce back from their Week 2 loss to Illinois, and Darian Mensah takes down his former school in a game that projects as a coin flip.
Duke’s performance against Illinois last week included a slew of unforced errors. As long as the Blue Devils avoid those, they have an opportunity to pressure Retzlaff and escape New Orleans with a hard-fought victory.
