• A tale of two debuts: Ben Johnson is set to make his first impression as the Bears’ head coach, while J.J. McCarthy is out to prove that he can be the Vikings’ franchise quarterback. Here’s what that means from a betting perspective.

• Ben Johnson loves to involve his running backs: Consider D’Andre Swift’s receptions prop for that reason. The veteran running back was heavily utilized in the passing game while with Johnson in Detroit in 2021 and 2022.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs Chicago Bears [Total: 44]

Game Overview

The Week 1 slate closes out with an NFC North matchup featuring a pair of intriguing debuts. J.J. McCarthy is making his first career start as the Vikings’ presumed franchise quarterback, and Ben Johnson is launching his tenure as the Bears’ head coach.

Minnesota heads into 2025 coming off a strong performance in betting markets this past season, posting an 11-6-1 record against the spread. Their 64.7% cover rate tied for the fifth best in the NFL. 

Explore Top Player Props

This Vikings’ roster features several new faces, including a defensive depth chart with six players who are either new starters or tabbed for significantly increased roles, and an overhauled offensive line to protect their young passer. That will likely have a striking effect on a team that went under in more than 61% of its games last season. 

On the other sideline, the Bears are set to begin anew after a tough 2024 in which they landed in the middle of the pack, covering in a little more than 53% of their games. However, at home, Chicago was highly effective covering the spread en route to a 5-2-1 against-the-spread record at Soldier Field.

While Ben Johnson brings a new offensive philosophy, one previous Bears success he will want to tap into is Caleb Williams’ effectiveness against the Vikings’ blitz packages, which he diced up last season. When these teams last met in Chicago in Week 12, Williams went 18-for-24 with 214 yards and three big-time throws when blitzed, posting a 92.2 PFF passing grade. 

This game won’t be without growing pains for both teams, but expect nothing less than the fierce divisional battles we saw in the NFC North last season.

RB D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears: Over 2.5 receptions (+110)

This breakdown carries a similar sentiment to my evaluation of Swift’s receiving-yardage line early last week, a number that has shifted considerably from the initial 8.5-yard mark. 

Ben Johnson’s scheme loves to get the running backs involved in the receiving game. Last season, his Lions offense ranked top five in running back targets and led the NFL in both receiving yardage (945) and yards per route run (1.89) from the position. It was the same story we saw when Swift played under Johnson in 2021 and 2022, when he ranked in the top five among running backs in targets (139) and receiving yards (841). Over that span, Swift managed to eclipse this receptions mark in 23 of his 27 games. 

Swift has a strong track record of going over this line when matched up with the Vikings, having recorded three receptions in four of his past five games versus Minnesota. 

Vikings linebackers Ivan Pace Jr. and Blake Cashman will need to stay on their toes for this matchup. Pace particularly struggled in coverage last season, earning just a 29.3 PFF coverage grade, a mark that ranked 78th out of 78 qualifying linebackers. Cashman, on the other hand, posted a modest 62.1 PFF coverage grade.