Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 1 edition! It’s good to be back. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmes!
Week 1 is a bit of a guessing game. It’s a brand new season, so we have to go on history and whatever was learned from the preseason. Sharp bettors can do well in Week 1, as the markets haven’t always caught up to new realities. But let’s not kid ourselves – if this was easy then sports books wouldn’t exist.
The Giants open on the road at the Commanders this Sunday, and they’re coming off an encouraging camp and preseason. Of course, the preseason doesn’t count. Still, there’s optimism for a team that finished 3-14 in 2024. As for the Commanders, we last saw them battling the Eagles for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, a year after they finished last in the NFC East and earned themselves the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. That pick became Jayden Daniels and he’s a huge part of that incredible reversal. The Commanders serve as a good reminder of how bad teams can turn it around quickly in the NFL.
Washington is favored by 5.5 points on Sunday, with a game total of 45.5. The Commanders have Super Bowl aspirations this year while the Giants are looking to return to respectability and competitiveness as they continue to develop a lot of young talent. In their two meetings last year, the Commanders swept, but both games were close (and the Giants would’ve likely won the Week 2 contest at Washington if they had a healthy kicker in uniform – don’t get me started!).
Let’s get to the picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Wednesday, Sept. 3.
1. Giants +5.5 (-102). This line opened at +6.5 (-118) and I was ready to hammer it, but the line moved. Well, one point isn’t moving me off my pick and especially at almost even money. The line still feels big. The Commanders had a magical season in 2024, but they won a bunch of close games, including two vs. the lowly G-Men. Both games were decided by five points or less. New York should get more competent QB play this season, and Washington’s defense is still a middling unit overall. I also think the Giants’ pass rush is going to be tough to deal with all year and that includes this week. I’m not predicting a Giants win, but I do think they’ll make it interesting. I’ll also ride this trend that speaks to what I said above about Week 1: Since 2016, underdogs in the 1-to-6.5 point range in Week 1 are 132-90-6 ATS. Give me the points, please!
2. Terry McLaurin UNDER 60.5 passing yards (-114). The Giants held McLaurin under 25 receiving yards in both games last season, although he did haul in six grabs in one of them. Scary Terry missed the entire preseason due to a contract dispute and I expect a slow start as he ramps up. I like the under on this prop.
3. Tyrone Tracy OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-114). A third bet in NYG’s favor, so I’m a bit over-correlated here, but if you’re a regular reader of this column you know I’m not a homer when it comes to this stuff. I happen to like this prop a lot. The Commanders allowed the NFL’s third most rushing yards per game last season (137.5) and they didn’t upgrade their run defense all that much. Tracy put up 66 rushing yards in his one start vs. the Commanders in 2024, and I expect him to improve on that this week. It’s his backfield for now, and he should dominate the RB touches in Week 1 with rookie Cam Skattebo still getting up to speed after a preseason hamstring injury. I think the Giants will stay in this game to the end, and that bodes well for Tracy’s volume and totals.
Those are the picks for Week 1. Good luck with your wagers! And if you play fantasy football, be sure to check out my Week 1 fantasy preview, with start/sit advice and more, right here.
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