This Week 1 matchup was already among the most intriguing on the schedule and got even juicier with Jerry Jones letting Micah Parsons don a Cheesehead. The Green Bay Packers are getting all the offseason hype, but it’s the Detroit Lions who own a three-game winning streak in Green Bay, with their last loss dating back to Jared Goff’s first road start as a Lion—the second game of the Dan Campbell era.
Two NFC contenders collide Sunday, so let’s take a look at the factors likely to impact the game plan.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Teeth of the Packers defense
Under then-first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, the 2024 Packers were surprisingly stout against defending runs inside the tackles last season.
- They faced the sixth-fewest runs between the tackles (183) and allowed only 38.4 rushing yards/game up the middle (2nd fewest).
- They led the NFL with just 3.6 yards/rush on inside runs, allowed only 12 runs of 10+ yards (2nd fewest), and ranked third in yards before contact (0.75 YBC/attempt).
- Their stuff rate stood at 17.5% (10th overall).
Outside the tackles, they were still top 12 across most run defense metrics.
Conversely, the Lions’ interior rushing attack offensively ranked third in yards/rush (4.8), first in +0.12 EPA/rush, and fourth in both success rate (49.8%) and yards before contact (1.75). Jahmyr Gibbs also led all running backs last season with both 5.9 yards per attempt and +0.25 EPA per attempt when rushing inside the tackles.
Based on last year’s numbers it would be a classic “iron sharpens iron” battle up the gut on the ground. However, both teams have seen turnover on their interior lines since last season.
The Packers’ biggest question marks come from the loss of primary nose tackles T.J. Slaton (Bengals) and more recently Kenny Clark (Cowboys). Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks remain productive but excel more as pass rushers than run defenders and line up primarily at 3-techniques or over tackles.
At nose tackle, the Packers are risking the biscuit on unproven Georgia rookies Warren Brinson (6th round), UDFA Nazir Stackhouse, and converted DT/DE Colby Wooden (6-foot-4, 273 pounds), a player with limited A-gap experience and a few biscuits short of the typical interior anchor. That could make it tough to keep blockers off linebackers like second-year standout Edgerrin Cooper and leave them vulnerable to bully ball.
On the Lions’ side, the revamped interior offensive line—Christian Mahogany, Graham Glasgow, and Tate Ratledge—has a prime opportunity to seize control. Success inside will help dictate tempo, dominate time of possession, and open up the rest of Detroit’s offense.
Love Lockdown
The Lions led the NFL last season by playing man coverage on 308 dropbacks—45% of all defensive dropbacks faced. They also blitzed on 231 dropbacks (33.7% of total), the league’s fourth-highest rate. While first-year coordinator Kelvin Sheppard may put his own stamp on the scheme, the Lions’ identity as an enforcing, man-heavy, blitz-happy defense is unlikely to change—and that’s not music to Jordan Love’s ears.
The Packers offense had its share of highs last season, averaging five more points per game than the year before, but it was also defined by inconsistency. One of the factors for the inability to sustain success came against man coverage, where Love’s struggles were clear:
- 51.6% completion percentage (29th)
- 90.7 passer rating (19th)
- 6.0 yards/attempt (31st)
- 41.9% success rate (25th)
- -0.14 EPA/dropback (33rd)
Man-heavy defenses like the Lions often compound that pressure with blitz packages—another area where the Packers offense experienced some tough Love:
- 60.7% completion percentage (T-22nd)
- 88.5 passer rating (24th)
- 6.4 yards/attempt (25th)
- 47.3% success rate (17th)
- -0.12 EPA/dropback (31st)
Matt LaFleur is a sharp offensive mind, and Love is still only entering his third year as a starter, so natural growth is possible. But Week 1 won’t do him many favors. He’ll be breaking in a new center in converted guard Elgton Jenkins (one start at center over the last four seasons), playing without Christian Watson (torn ACL), and potentially throwing to a hobbled receiver group of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams.
The Lions will look to rattle Love early with their trademark aggression, then suffocate him for 60 minutes with man coverage and blitz pressure. Backed by a defensive backfield of Terrion Arnold, D.J. Reed, Amik Robertson, Kerby Joseph, and Brian Branch—arguably the best secondary in football—Detroit has the tools to turn Week 1 into a matchup nightmare and force the Packers franchise quarterback into costly mistakes.
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