The 2025 NFL season has kicked off, with the Miami Dolphins joining the action on Sunday when they visit the Indianapolis Colts. The national media’s expectations for the Dolphins this year are extremely low, with few giving the team a chance to make it to the postseason. Those low expectations seem to have impacted the odds for this weekend’s game as well, where the Dolphins are underdogs despite the Colts’ quarterback situation where Daniel Jones has replaced Anthony Richardson after an open training camp battle.
This evening, with the game less than 24 hours away, it feels like a perfect time to take a look at the latest odds. We will also look at some of the prop bets available for the game, with an idea of if we think the over or under will hit on those.
All odds brought to us by FanDuel.
Dolphins at ColtsWeek 1 odds
Spread: Colts -1.5
Moneyline: Dolphins -108 | Colts -108
Point total: 46.5
There is a significant amount of negativity surrounding the Dolphins that seems unjustified. Yes, they have question marks about their secondary, specifically the cornerback position, but is Daniel Jones going to be the quarterback to carve up Miami? In six years in the NFL, he has averaged 208.3 yards per game passing. He can be solid – he does have a 400 yard passing game to his credit from back in 2021 – but there is a reason why he is no longer the Giants’ quarterback despite having been the sixth-overall pick in 2019.
The Dolphins have to come in respecting Jones, but they do not need to fear him. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is healthy with both wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle available, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out to prove he is the Pro Bowl quarterback from 2023 who led the league in passing.
I think the Dolphins win this game outright. I would also expect the over to hit on the point total.
Tua Tagovailoa passing yards
Passing yards total: 246.5
Tagovailoa has averaged 242.3 passing yards per game in his career, but that is factoring in his 181.4 yards per game his rookie season and 204.1 yards his second season. Over the past three years, he has averaged 272.9 yards, 272.0 yards, and 260.6 yards per game. Given last year was a “down” year for Miami’s offense as a whole, Tagovailoa still passing for an average of 260 yards a game seems like 246.5 is acheivable.
Over the last three years, he has thrown for 270 yards (2022), 466 yards (2023), and 338 yards (2024) in Miami’s Week 1 game. I would think the Dolphins are out to prove their offense is ready to bounce back this year and they are going to want to prove that on Sunday. I am taking the over here.
Individual receiving yards
Tyreek Hill receiving yards total: 68.5
Jaylen Waddle receiving yards total: 57.5
De’Von Achane receiving yards total: 30.5
The Dolphins are entering this game with two unproven players at tight end, which likely takes them out of the passing game unless Tagovailoa needs an absolute emergency option on a play. The lines for Hill, Waddle, and Achane total 156.5 yards. If Tagovailoa is going to go over 246.5 yards, I would expect all three of these to go over.
Player to Record a Sack
Bradley Chubb: -108
Jaelan Phillips: +116
Chop Robinson: +132
I am not going to tell you all three of Miami’s top pass rushers are going to record a sack, but they should be able to stress Jones throughout the game. I am going to pick Phillips from the group to get a sack, because I think he is going to come out looking to take his frustration of the last two injury-shortened seasons out on the Colts.
I am disappointed that defensive tackle Zach Sieler was not included on the list of players for the prop bet, because I think he absolutely gets a sack, with Jones trying to get away from the Chubb, Phillips, Robinson triumvirate and stepping right into Sieler’s arms.
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