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NFL picks, Week 1: BBV staff split on Giants-Commanders

Will the New York Giants, 5.5-point underdogs per FanDuel Sportsbook, pull off the upset Sunday against the Washington Commanders? Below, Big Blue View staff writers offer their views on that question, and make their picks for all of the Week 1 NFL games.

Chris Pflum

I think the Giants can win this game. I think the element of surprise with a new quarterback and offensive philosophy and a reworked defense are significant points in their favor. I like the way Russell Wilson was navigating the his read progressions in the preseason, as well as attacking all areas of the field. I think there’s a real chance that his experience and process could raise the team’s floor as well as better allow the players around him to reach their ceiling. And I love the way the defense was playing as though they were pissed off that the other team even dared to show up.

I think there’s a very real chance the Giants make a lot of people around the League and media re-think their priors.

But I’m not going to pick them to win. My rule for the last five years has been to not pick them until they show they can win, so that’s what I’m doing. Can’t say I expect to be right, or that I’d be upset at being wrong, though.

Pick: Commanders

Nick Falato

I originally picked the Giants to pull off the upset, but the Andrew Thomas’ news gave me pause. So, I pusillanimously changed to Washington. Dan Quinn should have his guys ready to role and Jayden Daniels will be a difficult weapon to contain. New York must prove that it can stop the run and the explosive plays defensively, while the offense must keep the game on track to allow the Giants’ pass rush to get after Daniels. New York can pull off this upset, but I am going with Washington.

Pick: Commanders

Tony DelGenio

Picking the Giants to win in Week 1 after the debacles of the last two openers seems foolish. At least this time it’s not at MetLife, where the Giants have a home field disadvantage. In the first Brian Daboll era opening game, the Giants surprised a seemingly better team on the road in Week 1. The Commanders were clearly a better team than the Giants last season, yet the Giants played them competitively twice. Two additions to the Giants suggest that a better outcome is possible this time: (1) Competent QB play, including stretching the field and the light boxes the running game will see because of it; (2) The addition of a potentially special pass rusher who might actually have the speed to counteract some of Jayden Daniels’ elusiveness. If Roy Robertson-Harris can make the interior run defense even a bit better than last year’s, and if the offensive line can be competent, then there’s a chance for an upset here.

Pick: Giants in a close game.

James Hickey

I had bought into the new vibe Giants.

A defense anchored by a defensive line that could create havoc. Two new pieces in the back to stabilize the secondary. And the debut of the next defensive superstar in the NFL.

On the offensive side of the ball, I bought in that Daniel Jones was the problem last year. I have been impressed with the maturity of Malik Nabers, the promise of TE Theo Johnson and a three headed running attack to compliment the passing game. With Russell Wilson at the helm, I envisioned a quarterback who would not just avoid mistakes but make plays.

Washington is an opponent to be respected. But they were the bizarro Giants from last year— where the Giants lost every close game before shutting it down for the season, the Jayden Daniels-led Commanders were on the right end of those close games. I can see it evening out this year with their issues on the offensive line and fielding an older team on defense.

What is spooking me is the Andrew Thomas injury. I do not think he will play and while I understand playing James Hudson over rookie Marcus Mbow, I would go the other way.

But I am taking the jump in with this team this year. They improved themselves in the offseason on nothing sides of the ball, have a quarterback who is a professional and have more playmakers then Washington.

Pick: Giants 24, Washington 10

Valentine’s View

I won’t pick the Giants to win. I won’t pick the Giants to win. I won’t pick the Giants to win. I told myself over and over I would not pick the Giants to win. And here I am, picking the Giants to win.

I may end up being wrong, but I feel like the Commanders are vulnerable. I feel like I need them to prove to me that they are as good as many prognosticators seem to think. That they won’t take the step back after last season’s 12-5 record and appearance in the NFC Championship Game that I think they might.

Jayden Daniels is fantastic. Is the rest of what is around him on offense, though, really that scary? Is the Commanders’ ancient defense really that good? I don’t know.

I think the Giants had a good, distraction-free, summer. I think their defensive front has a big impact on Sunday and that they get enough offense from Russell Wilson, Malik Nabers and Co. to get the season off on the right foot.

Pick: Giants

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