Week 1 kicks off a new NFL season, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds — all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.

Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for Week 1.

Trevor Sikkema

WR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 55.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Metcalf fell short of this mark in four of his final five games in 2024 despite playing with a familiar quarterback in Geno Smith, whose deep-ball mentality aligns with Metcalf’s vertical, jump-ball skill set.

Now in Pittsburgh, he’ll catch passes from Aaron Rodgers, who earned a solid 92.6 grade on throws of 20-plus yards last season (14th in the NFL). The bigger concern: Metcalf is expected to face plenty of Sauce Gardner, the league’s top-graded corner in single coverage (90.5) over the past three seasons.

Dalton Wasserman

RB Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 24.5 rushing yards (-111 Draftkings)

Harris was only fully cleared for contact on Monday after missing all of training camp and the preseason with an eye injury, giving him just four days to prepare for Friday’s opener against Kansas City in Brazil. With first-round pick Omarion Hampton now in the mix, Harris likely faces a split backfield — and there’s a real possibility he sees only a handful of carries.

The matchup doesn’t help, either. In two games against the Chiefs last season, Chargers running backs averaged fewer than 3.2 yards per carry and failed to break a single run longer than 12 yards. The loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater only complicates things further, and if Los Angeles falls behind early, the run game could become an afterthought.

Ben Linsey

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 2.5 receptions (+135, Fanatics)

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid singled out JuJu Smith-Schuster when asked about replacing Rashee Rice’s production during his suspension: “He feels very good, and we have a lot of trust in him. But most of all, Patrick has a lot of trust in him. So yeah, no, he can fill in that role for sure.”

Kansas City posted the second-highest neutral-situation pass rate in 2024 — behind only Cincinnati — which sets the stage for a high-volume passing game in a tight matchup against the Chargers (KC -3). With Rice suspended, rookie Jalen Royals banged up and Hollywood Brown easing back from a preseason absence, Smith-Schuster is well-positioned to pick up additional targets. His three-plus receptions line at +135 — and alternate reception props — are well worth considering.

Mason Cameron

RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Under 34.5 rushing yards (-108 DraftKings)

With Jaydon Blue waiting in the wings and limited cohesion along the offensive line during the preseason, there are plenty of questions surrounding Williams and the Cowboys’ ground game. Neither Tyler Guyton nor Tyler Smith played a preseason snap due to injuries, and now Dallas opens against an Eagles defense that ranked second in run defense grade last season — not the ideal setup for establishing rhythm on the ground.

Max Chadwick

RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 40.5 rushing yards (-112 DraftKings)

Travis Etienne averaged just 32.7 rushing yards per game over his final 10 contests in 2024, and Jacksonville’s backfield looks even more crowded entering this season. Tank Bigsby emerged down the stretch last year, and rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen are expected to factor in as well. The Jaguars have also ranked in the bottom 10 in run-blocking grade for six straight seasons. While Carolina fielded the league’s worst run-defense grade in 2024 (37.4), the return of star defensive tackle Derrick Brown should lead to a much more competitive front in 2025.

Gordon McGuinness

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Over 1.5 passing TDs (+115 Fanatics)

The Eagles are favored by more than a touchdown after the Cowboys traded away star edge defender Micah Parsons, suggesting Dallas could be playing from behind — and giving Dak Prescott more opportunities to rack up pass attempts and touchdown chances. Philadelphia is also rolling out two new starters in the secondary: cornerback Kelee Ringo and safety Sydney Brown. Neither has recorded a PFF coverage grade above 70.0 in a season, presenting potential vulnerabilities for Prescott to exploit.