Welcome to the 2025 NFL season! Wow, it’s been a minute and here we are again, firing up fantasy football lineups for the first time in a long time. I don’t know about you, but I’m pumped up.
I’ll be running this column each Thursday, a fantasy Waiver Wire column each Monday, and a Giants’ “best bets” column ahead of each week’s game. Keep it here!
Week 1 is always wonky for fantasy. On the plus side, managers have their entire roster at their disposal. There are no Byes, and in general, players are as healthy as they’ll be all season. You’re going to sit points this week and especially if you play in a shallow league. Don’t sweat it, just roll with it.
On the flip side, Week 1 is tricky to handicap because we don’t always have a clear indication of player roles and usage, or how certain offenses are going to look due to personnel and coaching changes. We also don’t know how good or bad certain defenses and defensive position groups are, so we have to rely a lot on what we saw last season.
We also need to remember that it’s only one week of a long season. Week 1 overreactions in fantasy are the stuff of legend. Fun facts: In Week 1 last year, eventual triple crown winner Ja’Marr Chase had six catches for 62 yards and zero TDs, and his quarterback, eventual QB3 Joe Burrow, threw for 164 yards and zero TDs (it was his only game with single digit fantasy points all season). Meanwhile, Jayden Reed, who finished outside the Top-30 wide receivers for the season, scored 31 points to lead all wide receivers. Cooper Kupp was second with 25. You see where this is going.
Stats of the Week:
Part 1:
Across the last two seasons, the Bengals have scored 13 points, TOTAL, in Week 1.
Last season, the Saints scored an NFL-best 91 points in their first two games.
For this week, the Bengals (@CLE) have an implied total of 26.5 (tied for second highest) and the Saints (vs. ARI) have an implied total of 18.5 (third lowest).
Part 2:
In games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniels has a 20-11 record, and overall the Dolphins are 38-24 in Tua’s starts.
The Giants posted a 24-44-1 record in games started by Daniel Jones. After six seasons in New York, Jones is the Week 1 starter for the Colts.
The Colts host the Dolphins on Sunday and are favored by 1.5 points.
OK, Week 1, here we go!
Bye Weeks: NONE
Week 1 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Ja’Marr Chase. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Ride of the Week: Mike Evans (@ATL).
How many reasons do you want? These division rivals lit up the scoreboard when they faced off last season (123 total points scored in two games) and both defenses are iffy units again in 2025. Atlanta allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to WRs last season, and the most TDs to the position (22). Giddyup! The NFC South is going to be fantasy fun all year (Saints excluded). Evans scored twice in the teams’ first meeting of 2024, but missed the second contest. He’s got almost 100 career catches to go with 13 career TDs vs. the Falcons, and with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out, should be targeted early and often, including near the goal line where he feasts. This is a smash spot for Big Mike as he starts his quest for a 12th straight 1,000-yard season.
Fade of the Week: Jared Goff (@GB).
Last season, Goff didn’t play a single game outdoors until November. This year he’s got several of them early and it starts right away, at Green Bay this Sunday. Weather won’t be a concern, but Goff’s career indoor/outdoor and home/road splits aren’t good, and I think this is a tough Week 1 spot for him. In case you didn’t hear, the Packers just added Micah Parsons and that’s going to add to the difficulty for Goff, against a defense that allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to quarterbacks in 2024. In case you didn’t hear (part deux), Ben Johnson is gone. I’m not predicting a disaster, and Goff has major weapons at his disposal, but I can see Detroit running it a lot in this one and not spinning the scoreboard like they usually do. With so many other strong options available at QB, Goff is a Fade for me.
Sleeper of the Week: Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR). Lawrence is ranked outside the Top-12 QBs this week, but I like his chances to finish inside the Top-10. The Panthers gave up the most points in NFL history last season, and they also allowed the most FPPG and TD passes (35) to opposing QBs. Not only is the home matchup tasty, but it’s game one of the Liam Coen era in Jacksonville and we all saw what Baker Mayfield did with him last season. Lawrence should roll in this battle of big cats.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
QB is loaded this season, and there lots of good choices in Week 1. In addition to Lawrence, other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 for the week who I think could beat their weekly rankings are Baker Mayfield (@ATL), Drake Maye (vs. LV), and Kyler Murray (@NO). All have favorable matchups for fantasy.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, I think you can go with Bryce Young (@JAC), Michael Penix, Jr. (vs. TB), and Joe Flacco (vs. CIN). Cincinnati, Tampa, and Jacksonville were all Bottom-6 last season in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing QBs, with the Jaguars allowing the most passing yards in the NFL. And while Flacco is 40, he can still air it out and he’ll need to against Cincy.
Fades:
Brock Purdy (@SEA) is ranked as the QB11 this week and I can see him struggling in a hostile building against a young and aggressive Seattle defense. A healthy Christian McCaffrey will certainly help, but Jauan Jennings could be rusty (if he plays), and they’re already shorthanded with Brandon Aiyuk on IR. I’ll also fade Justin Fields (vs. PIT) in a revenge game against a tough defense.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include J.J. McCarthy (@CHI, which is a tough spot for his first-ever NFL start), Cam Ward (@DEN, ditto), Matthew Stafford (vs. HOU), and Aaron Rodgers (@NYJ). It’s a double-revenge game!
Running back:
Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Bucky Irving (@ATL). Start what you can in this game, and Irving should get his. Ken Walker (vs. SF) is in a nice spot vs. a rebuilding 49ers’ defense that allowed the sixth most FPPG to RBs last season. Play him while he’s healthy. Ashton Jeanty (@NE) has a good matchup in his NFL debut, although I expect Mike Vrabel’s team to toughen up this season. The Pats allowed the second most FPPG and third most rushing yards to RBs in 2024.
Others with ECRs inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform are Chase Brown (@CLE), Chuba Hubbard (@JAC), James Conner (@NO, which had the league’s 31st-ranked run defense last season), and Isiah Pacheco (@LAC).
Sleepers: It’s Week 1, with no Byes and just about everyone healthy, so most fantasy managers don’t need to reach too much at either RB, WR, or TE.
Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (@WAS) is ranked outside the Top-25 RBs this week but I think you can fire him up as an RB2 or Flex if you need him. He should handle the bulk of the work in Week 1, and I expect the Giants to stay in more games this season, which will help their RBs.
If you’re stuck, or looking for some value in DFS, I think both Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby (vs. CAR) are intriguing plays, against a run defense that allowed almost 180 yards per game last year (worst in the league by almost 40 yards) and the most FFPG and rushing TDs to opposing running backs. I also expect veterans J.K. Dobbins (vs. TEN) and Jerome Ford (v. CIN) to lead their respective backfields in Week 1, making them playable if you’re thin at running back.
Austin Ekeler (vs. NYG) feels like a forgotten man amid all the “Bill” hype, but I think he’s going to be Flex-worthy most weeks and especially in Full PPR. I expect him to lead the Commanders’ backfield in fantasy points when all is said and done.
Fades:
A lot of rookie RBs who went inside the first 100 or so picks of fantasy drafts are going to be in lineups in Week 1, but some are going to disappoint, including in terms of usage. I’d try to wait a week on R.J. Harvey (vs. TEN), Kaleb Johnson (@NYJ), and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. NYG) to see what the backfield split is. I think all three will need a little time before they’re every-week starts. I’d stay away from all the Dallas RBs (@PHI) this week. Not only don’t we know what the rotation is going to be, but I expect the Cowboys to be trailing for most of this game, on the road against the defense that allowed the fewest FPPG to running backs in 2024.
You’re starting James Cook (vs. BAL), but he was hyper-efficient and very TD-dependent for his fantasy value in 2024 and I’d temper expectations against the NFL’s #1-ranked run defense from a year ago. Breece Hall (vs. PIT) has a lot to prove this season, but I think he might have some tough sledding (and a less-than-ideal backfield share) in what should be a low-scoring Week 1 contest.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Drake London (vs. TB) could be listed among the elite WRs very soon. You know I like this game for a shootout, and with Darnell Mooney iffy, London could immediately see the type of insane volume he got at the end of last season when Michael Penix, Jr. took over as quarterback. London’s ECR is WR10 this week and a Top-5 finish is in play.
Other receivers with ECRs from 12-30 that I think should outperform this week include: A.J. Brown (vs. DAL), Tee Higgins (@CLE, who allowed the second most FPPG to WRs last season), Tyreek Hill (@IND, and this may be the last time he’s ranked outside the Top-15 for a while), Xavier Worthy (@LAC, in Brazil), Tet McMillan (@JAC, who allowed the third most FPPG to WRs last season), Jaylen Waddle (@IND), and Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN).
Sleepers:
Rome Odunze (vs. MIN) has an ECR of WR35 this week, but if he takes a big step forward and emerges as the Bears #1, or even a reliable #1B (which I expect to happen this season), then you won’t see him ranked this low very often. The Vikings have an excellent defense, but they did allow the most FPPG to WRs last season and Ben Johnson knows how to attack them.
Other WRs with ECRs outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Emeka Egbuka (@ ATL), Josh Downs (vs. MIA), Cedric Tillman (vs. CIN), Hollywood Brown (@LAC, in Brazil), Christian Kirk (@LAR), and Deebo Samuel (vs. NYG, and look for him to get some carries).
I also like some sleeper WRs in the BAL@BUF tilt. Not only is this the marquee matchup of Week 1, but it also has the highest Vegas total at 52.5. So yeah, feel free to take a chance on Rashod Bateman (vs. BUF), and in the same game, Keon Coleman (vs. BAL), If you really want to dig deep for a DFS flier, I have a gut feeling about teammate Josh Palmer. Khalil Shakir is back after missing a month of practice with a high ankle sprain, but I could see the other WRs needing to step up a little in a back-and-forth game.
Fades:
You’re starting Terry McLaurin (vs. NYG), but I don’t like all the missed time in camp and I think the Giants’ pass rush is going to be a handful. Big Blue held Scary Terry under 30 yards in both of their games last season. I have him outside the Top-20 WRs this week while he ramps up. I’m very high on Calvin Ridley (@DEN) this season, but this is a terrible matchup against what might be the league’s best defense, and it’s Cam Ward’s first start, on the road no less.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-35 who I am lower on this week include Chris Olave (vs. ARI), Jameson Williams (@GB), and Jakobi Meyers (@NE).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
After the Top-3, the other “TE1s” are going to be a bit of a weekly crapshoot. Mark Andrews (@BUF), come on down! The Ravens will need to score a lot to win this game, and with Isaiah Likely iffy to play, Andrews has a clear path to play a big role. He led all TEs in TDs last season with 11, and I think he gets at least one this week. His weekly ECR of TE7 is too low.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their ECR this week: David Njoku (vs. CIN), and Hunter Henry (vs. LV).
Sleepers:
I like a lot of sleeper tight ends for the season, but most fantasy managers have no need to reach in Week 1. Still, if you’re stuck for some reason, I think Kyle Pitts (vs. TB), Mike Gesicki (@CLE), and Brenton Strange (vs. CAR) could surprise this week. All are ranked 18 or lower this week.
Fades:
The Eagles yielded the fewest catches and yards to TEs last season, and I think Sunday could be a long day for a Dallas team that’s had a rough week. Jake Ferguson (@PHI) is a Fade for me (but I do like him a lot this season – Dallas is going to pass as much as any team).
Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Tucker Kraft (vs. DET, who allowed the second fewest FPPG to TEs last season), Colston Loveland (vs. MIN), and Zach Ertz (vs. NYG).
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the Top-12)
PK: C. Little (vs. CAR), Y. Koo (vs. TB), C. Ryland (@NO), J. Myers (vs. SF), J. Sanders (@IND).
D/ST: CHI (vs. MIN), NE (vs. LV).
That’s it. Good luck in Week 1!
***This column appears each Thursday. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column drops, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants; all right here at Big Blue View. ***
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