It’s that time of year- time for my annual season prediction for the Minnesota Vikings. I completed predictions for each of the NFC North teams as well, but in this piece I’ll take a deep dive into the key factors that will impact the Vikings’ season this year compared to last and ultimately my prediction for the Vikings’ season record.
My Track Record
One thing you never find attached to any pundit’s predictions is their track record, except this one. Predicting outcomes of football games and seasons is far from an exact science, but there are some key factors that can and do impact a team’s season, some of which are not immediately obvious. Nevertheless, there are so many interrelated variables involved that perfection is impossible. My own track record is far from perfect, but since I started using my current formula I’ve at least been closer than the over/under total two of the last three seasons- 2023 being way off due to Kirk Cousins going down mid-season. In any case, this will be my tenth prediction over the past eleven seasons, having abandoned any prediction in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater went down just prior to the start of the season. Here are the results:
2015
Prediction: 10-6. Actual: 11-5. Preseason over/under: 7.5
2016
No prediction after Bridgewater went down. Acutal: 8-8. Preseason over/under: 9.5 (pre-Bridgewater injury).
2017
Prediction: 12-4. Actual: 13-3. Preseason over/under: 8.5
2018
Prediction: 13-3. Actual: 8-7-1. Preseason over/under: 10
2019
Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 10-6. Preseason over/under: 9.
2020
Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 7-9. Preseason over/under: 8.5 (March)
2021
Prediction: 13-4. Actual: 8-9. Preseason over/under: 9.
2022
Prediction: 12-5. Actual: 13-4. Preseason over/under: 9.5.
2023
Prediction: 11-6. Actual: 7-10. Preseason over/under: 8.5.
2024
Prediction: 10-7. Actual: 14-3. Preseason over/under: 6.5.
As I mentioned above, the 2023 Vikings’ season was heavily impacted by the loss of Kirk Cousins mid-season, and losing Justin Jefferson for roughly half the season as well.
My 2024 prediction was significantly (3.5 games) higher than the over/under win total for the Vikings this time last season, but actually proved to be even more significantly lower than the actual outcome. Looking at how I evaluated the key factors last year, I underestimated Sam Darnold a bit- I figured him to be the equivalent of the quarterbacking the Vikings had in 2023 (i.e. Cousins, Dobbs, Mullens, Hall) when he turned out better than that. Most other pundits were more pessimistic about Darnold, which led to lower win predictions for the Vikings. And while I had a pretty significant (+3 game) adjustment for luck and turnovers last season, expecting a favorable reversion to the mean on both counts, the actual results swung even more positive than that. Lastly, I actually had a -1 game adjustment for strength of schedule, based on the Vikings supposedly having a more difficult schedule thant the previous season based on preseason over/under win totals of opponents, but that turned out to be a mistake- the Vikings and NFC North turned out to have easier schedules than anticipated that was a significant reason for the higher win totals for the Lions, Vikings, and Packers last season.
The 2025 Consensus View
The over/under win total for the Vikings currently stands at 9 games on DraftKings and FanDuel, while the odds to win the division even out at +350 (+360 DraftKings, +340 FanDuel). That’s a five game slide from last year’s results. There remains skepticism about J.J. McCathy’s performance, although perhaps not as much as there was this time last year about Sam Darnold’s, hence a 9 win total over/under rather than a 6.5. The Vikings have a one game lower over/under win total than both the Packers and Lions, which is significantly reduced from the way off 3.5/4.0 game lower total from a year ago. The view of the Vikings’ roster has improved and most consider the Vikings to have one of the best rosters in the league- at least top ten. But the unknowns about McCarthy weigh on the outlook for the Vikings this season among preseason pundits.
Analyzing the Changes from Last Season
In analyzing the changes for the Vikings since last season, I consider the following major components: roster changes, coaching/scheme changes, sustainability factors such as outliers in injuries, turnovers, and other luck factors, and finally strength of schedule. I then assign a positive or negative win factor for each component to arrive at the net change in wins from the previous season.
Roster Changes
Here is a breakdown of roster changes for the Vikings since last season, by position group, along with a positive (+), negative (-) or about the same (=) assessment of those changes relative to last season.
Quarterback (=). I expect J.J. McCarthy to have a similar season stat-wise to Sam Darnold last season. That may seem like a big leap of faith- most rookie (and McCarthy is essentially a 2nd year rookie) quarterbacks do not fare as well as Sam Darnold did last season. However, in a piece I did back in April on expectations for McCarthy, I compared him to 27 other rookie or first season as starter quarterbacks in “good” situations and how they fared in their first campaign as a starting quarterback. The results were very similar to Sam Darnold’s stats last season. And so that should remain the base case expectation for McCarthy this season. There is also a basis for higher expectations (McCarthy has arguably one of the best situations, even among quarterbacks with “good” situations in the past, and he has a better offensive line than Darnold had last year) and lower expectations (he struggles reading defenses, loses confidence). But there isn’t a glaring weakness that McCarthy has shown in training camp, joint practices, or preseason games this year that would warrant a reduced outlook based on talent compared to other quarterbacks in “good” situation in the past.
Running Back (+). While Aaron Jones will remain the starter, adding Jordan Mason in what is likely to be a 1b role in terms of snap count should help get the best from Jones while also improving the non-Jones RB carries from a year ago. Mason may also prove to be more effective in the red zone.
Wide Receiver (=). Arguably adding Thielen as WR3 after week 3 is a positive, but losing Addison for three games to start the season is a negative too. Jalen Nailor had some good games early in the season last year too. Overall, perhaps a mild positive with the addition of Thielen but as WR3 for most of the season it’s tough to give this a positive overall.
Offensive Line (+++). The Vikings are likely to be better at all three interior line positions this season compared to last, given the free agency additions of Will Fries and Ryan Kelly, and drafting Donovan Jackson in the first round. The Vikings will also have Christian Darrisaw back after missing over half the season last year.
Tight End (+). The Vikings were without T.J. Hockenson for seven games last season. Having him for the full season will represent a positive.
Interior Defensive Line (+++). The additions of Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, along with the elevation of Jalen Redmond, and better quality depth, all look to be significant positives for this group, especially rushing the passer.
Edge Rushers (=). It will be interesting to see how Brian Flores manages reps for Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner at the edge rusher spot opposite of Jonathan Greenard, but ultimately I don’t expect this change to move the needle much overall for the group.
Inside Linebackers (=). Both Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. will be starters again this season, and no reason for that being a positive or negative compared to last season.
Cornerback (=). You can make the case that Isaiah Rodgers will be an upgrade over Stephon Gilmore last season, but for now I’ll call that a lateral move. Jeff Okudah as CB3 still warrants skepticism until proven otherwise. I suspect Josh Metellus will continue to get significant reps as a ‘big nickel’ this year too.
Safety (=). The big change here is replacing Cam Bynum with Theo Jackson, which I regard as a lateral move at this point. The Vikings have been high on Jackson for a couple years, which is why they didn’t try to extend Bynum. I’m assuming Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus will have similar performances to last season.
Specialists (+). There is potential for both kick and punt returners to be better than last season, particularly given that both for the Vikings were among the worst in the league. I’m assuming Reichard will be the same and not injured for a couple games this season, which would be a mild positive, and Ryan Wright will be the same.
For the second season in a row, I don’t have any position group for the Vikings as worse than the previous season. Last year that turned out to be accurate, will see how it turns out this season. I also have the Vikings having significant upgrades in the trenches, which is a big reason for an overall positive for the Vikings roster this season over last season.
Coaching/Scheme Changes
Once again no coaching or major scheme changes for the Vikings this season. We can expect some evolution of Brian Flores’ scheme this season, but probably not dramatically so. There may also be some evolution in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme to adjust for J.J. McCarthy, but again probably not dramatically so.
Sustainability Factors
Beyond changes to the roster and scheme/coaching staff that can impact a team’s performance year over year, there are also what I call sustainability factors. These are outliers in things like injuries, turnovers, and other on-field luck factors like field goal percentage for and against, fumble recovery percentage, etc. For example, a team that ranks really high or low in the number of takeaways last season, that’s probably unsustainable into the new season, and so an adjustment reflecting some regression to the mean is factored into the win total.
Injuries
Injuries make a big difference in winning or losing games. There is definitely a demolition derby aspect to the NFL each season, which has a big impact in which teams advance to the playoffs and how far they advance in the playoffs. Few teams make the playoffs or advance much if they have among the most Adjusted Games Lost (AGLs) in a given season. The 49ers were a Super Bowl favorite with an 11.5 over/under win total this time last year. They got hit hard by injuries and finished last in their division.
The Vikings had the 10th fewest injuries based on the Adjusted Games Lost metric. They ranked 26th on offense and 4th on defense, so lobsided in that regard. Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it specifically measures injuries to expected starters and important situational players rather than little-used backups. Apart from the 2023 season when Kirk Cousins went down and Justin Jefferson was out half the season, the Vikings have been top ten or better in AGLs since Kevin O’Connell brought Tyler Williams and his training staff from the Rams. The Rams under Tyler Williams had been top ten or better in fewest AGLs going back to 2016. That is a significant track record and not all NFL teams have the same quality of training staffs. Given the Vikings’ and Tyler Williams track record with AGLs, last season was roughly average.
Turnovers
Turnovers are highly correlated to win/loss record. The Vikings under Kevin O’Connell are 30-3 when winning or tieing the turnover battle. They are 4-14 when losing it. The Vikings led the league in takeaways last season with 33, which is an outlier and you would expect some reversion to the mean this season. They ranked 17th in giveaways, which is roughly average.
Luck Factors
Teams can also be postively or negatively affected by what essentially are luck factors. For example, normally a team has a 50% chance of recovering a fumble as history has shown. So, a team that recovers 75% of fumbles in a given season can be said to have had extraordinary good luck in that regard- something that isn’t likely to carryover into future seasons. Similarly, dropped passes or those dropped by an opponent at an above average rate is attributable to a team’s luck, as is the case with interceptions. As I mentioned in my predictions for the other NFC North teams this year, I am going with a blend of the Net Win Probability Added chart (below) and the TeamRankings luck factors, which is based on estimated wins compared to actual wins. Estimated wins is a play-by-play analysis of a game that determines the outcome based on the collective probability of outcome based on each play situation. For example, a team that converts a high percentage of 3rd and long situations to win the game narrowly is beating the odds and so is seen to be lucky in that regard.
The Vikings ranked as the 6th luckiest team in the league last season in the Net Win Probability Added luck factors above. The Vikings also ranked as the 2nd luckiest team in the league last season according to the TeamRankings luck rankings. The blended result is a positive outlier and so some reversion to the mean this season is expected, which is a negative for the Vikings’ win total.
Strength of Schedule
Lastly, strength of schedule also is a significant factor in a team’s win total. This season, the Vikings have 5th most difficult schedule in the league according to opponent over/under win totals compiled by oddsmakers. This is typically a better measure of strength of schedule compared to last season opponent win totals as it better accounts for changes since last season. Last season the Vikings had the 15th most difficult schedule based on actual wins of opponents. But as I’ve mentioned in my other NFC North team predictions, I think the schedule for all NFC North teams is even more difficult for a couple reasons. One, the injury luck NFC North teams had when facing opponents (although the Vikings had less of this), and two because there are fewer opponents this season expected to be picking high in next year’s draft (i.e. having one of the worst records). That leaves a lower margin of error in more games to achieve victory. The Vikings are no exception. Road games against the Browns and Giants may be the only “easy” games for the Vikings this season. One advantage the Vikings share with the Packers over the Lions is having more home games against top opponents like the Ravens, Eagles, and Commanders. But overall this looks to be a more difficult schedule for the Vikings compared to last season, as is the case with all NFC North teams.
Adding It All Up
Now that I’ve gone through the relevant factors that can impact the Vikings’ season, let’s calculate how they impact the Vikings’ win total this season compared to their 14-3 record of a season ago.
Coaching/Scheme Changes (0)
No impact over last season. Continuity in both coaching and scheme merits no change here.
Roster Changes (+2)
This results mainly from estimating J.J. McCarthy as roughly equal to Sam Darnold last season, based on his having one of the best situations for a newly starting quarterback, and substantial improvements to both offensive and defensive lines and no negative changes among Vikings’ position groups.
Sustainability Factors (-3)
The Vikings had the most takeaways last season and also were among the luckiest teams in the league last season according to the blend of two luck metrics used above. All those are negatives to this season’s win total as reversion to the mean is expected in both luck and turnovers. There is no adjustment for injuries, as the Vikings were roughly average according to Tyler Williams’ long track record with AGLs.
Strength of Schedule (-2)
As with the Packers and Lions, I give the Vikings a -2 for a more difficult schedule this season. The Lions’ schedule is the toughest of the three, followed by the Vikings’ and then Packers’, but not enough of a difference to warrant a different change in win totals for each team. I did give the Bears a bit of a break (only -1 for strength of schedule) based on a last place schedule and perhaps 1-2 more games against bottom ten opponents.
Prediction: 11-6
Adding all the factors up results in a -3 over the Vikings’ 2024 14-3 win total, or a prediction of a 11-6 record this season. That’s a solid two games above the current over/under, most probably due to a more positive assessment of J.J. McCarthy’s performance this season than the national audience and oddsmakers. I suspect the Vikings’ additions along the defensive interior are not quite as well appreciated among national pundits as well. But there is a consensus that the NFC North is not going to have another 15, 14, and 11 game winning team this season, and that’s largely due to the division having a tougher schedule vs. the AFC North and NFC East this season compared to the AFC South and injury-riddled NFC West last season, although the Vikings didn’t fare as well in the timing of their game vs. the Rams as the Packers and Bears did from a Rams injury standpoint.
I have both the Packers and Lions finishing a close second in the division at 10-7, with the Bears further back at 7-10. The Vikings at 11-6 should be good enough to win the division, but I expect a close three-way race that may come down to tie-breakers.
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