The Indianapolis Colts may not have the most exciting team on paper, but there are ways of making games and the season more interesting. One of those ways are looking at season bets, and here are a few that I believe are value and worth considering.
Odds are from Bet365. Please bet responsibly.
Colts to win the AFC South (+375)
Things might be pretty bleak for the Colts, but it’s also pretty bleak for the AFC South. The Titans are in a pure rebuild phase with a rookie quarterback and a mostly young team, so they aren’t serious contenders to win the division unless rookie Cam Ward is Jayden Daniels. The Jaguars had a horrendous season last year and are starting fresh with a new coach. They might have the most talent of any team in the AFC South, but starting fresh isn’t easy and there are many questions surrounding Trevor Lawrence and whether he’s a legitimate good quarterback in the NFL. The top team is clearly the Houston Texans, but they are very top heavy and one injury could derail their season. They also finished last season with a +0 point differential, meaning they were really a 9-8 or 8-9 team last season. The Colts finished last season at 8-9, so at 5-1 odds, it’s worth a shot on the Colts.
Kwity Paye Over 6.5 Sacks (-105)
Kwity Paye has hit 6 or more sacks in each of the last 3 seasons, including 8 sacks in each of his last 2 seasons. Paye is a projected starter again this season along with Laitu Latu, so he should not see a reduction in his snap count. If he hits the same snap count figure, then he should hit the over 6.5 sack number. He is also in a make or break year with the Colts, as they determine whether to keep him long-term, so he has extra motivation to break his previous numbers.
Bonus: Kwity Paye 10+ Sacks (+450)
If Paye has hit 8 sacks in his last 2 seasons, and he has extra motivation to break those numbers to get a big contract on the same team (or with another team), he could definitely hit 10 sacks.
Jonathan Taylor Over 1200.5 Yards (-110)
Despite missing 3 games last season, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1431 rushing yards. He rushed for 102.2 yards per game, which means if he played in just 12 games, he would’ve broken this number. When healthy, Taylor is an elite running back with the potential of leading the NFL in rushing yards. So the question isn’t really will he break 1200 yards, the question is will he stay healthy and not miss more than 4-5 games. If you think he will, then this is a great bet to make. The only downside is he’s missed 16 games in the last 3 seasons, so it appears the oddsmakers are projecting him to miss 5 games, hence the reason they got to this number.
Bonus: Jonathan Taylor 1500+ Rush Yards (+200)
To piggyback off the health argument, if he plays all 17 games, he’s probably going to beat the 1500 number pretty easily. He nearly did it last season despite missing 3 games. The Colts should not have any plans to deviate from a run heavy strategy with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones as their quarterback.
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